NFL 2008: Week Eight

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Strength Weight Notes for Picks
I classify games as either "strong" plays or "normal" plays. On a rare occasion there may even be a "very strong" pick. Normal plays will have no designation whereas the plays with extra condidence will be denoted as such.

Week Eight Overview
Injuries have seemed more prominent this year, particularly with regards to Quarterbacks. By now though we have a lot of data on hand for analysis.

Oakland at Baltimore (-7)
Last week I felt like the Jets were getting an 'easy line' vs the Raiders but in the end passed and the Jets failed at the task. The stats score though shows NYJ 25-14. Now the Raiders make the long trek East again and the Ravens at only 3-3 will be far from complacent. The rush defense is a strong point in Baltimore and Oakland looks to run. The DC+DCTO thinks the Ravens are the better team on stats and even more so once turnovers are accouted for. In addition a strong Trends pick sides with the Ravens as well. The line has already moved up a notch so don't get stuck laying 7.5.
-- Pick: Baltimore -7
Line up to -7.5 now

Arizona at Carolina (-4.5)
The Panthers have been very good at home so far (4-0), the Cardinals 1-2 on the road. Yet Arizona does move the ball well in the air and has dangerous receivers. Nathan's third down contrarian method side with Carolina and I am leaning that way at present.
Line at -4. Still lean to Panthers but not playing it.

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-2.5)
Both teams have had some QB injuries but it's safe to say Dallas is suffering more with Romo likely out. Some mixed signals from the TMW indicators but this is a definite game to make no decisions until the injury report is available.
Romo listed as Out. Lean to Tampa Bay.

Washington at Detroit (+7.5)
The Lions have yet to show a passable effort on the stats score front. Their closest stats loss in fact is 23 points! While I came very close to going with them two weeks ago, now they have covered two straight I think the line is shading back to them: not what you want if you are thinking about backing them. Washington on the other hand was in control against Cleveland last week (36-11 stats score) and could finally get the blowout win (their five wins have all been by 2 to 7 points, with only one at 7). There are many TMW features liking Detroit but I will pass.

Buffalo at Miami (+1.5)
This I know: Trent Edwards must be respected. The Bills have been very good when he plays. Taking apart San Diego last week was impressive, even if the Chargers are not as good as once thought. I was concerned Miami's success was too dependent on the trick play direct snap to Ronnie Brown and two straight 23-36 stats scores suggests teams are catching up to what was after all a 1-15 club last year. The DC+DCTO thinks the Bills are the right side as turnovers have been poor for them, particularly fumbles. Lean to Buffalo.
Take away the Arizona game where Edwards was knocked out early and the Bills look powerful.
-- Saturday Pick: Buffalo -1.5

St. Louis at New England (-7)
Patriots bounced back nicely last week, with almost a third of their rushes going for 10+ yards! In addition Cassel finally made use of Randy Moss. The Rams meanwhile have looked like a very different team since they fired the coach. Not a lot of feel on this one yet.
Line up to -7.5. Can't predict the Patriots right now.

San Diego (-3) vs New Orleans in London
The Saints are another DC+DCTO pick which is a good starting point against a team that may well be over-rated based on prior season accomplishments. Bush is out though and I will wait for the full injury news before making any decisions.
Latest news is that several Saints players including Deuce are under a cloud for failed drug tests. England factor, turmoil make this a pass.

Kansas City at N.Y. Jets (-13)
The Chiefs looked awful last week and perhaps not surprisingly even being asked to lay so many points the Jets are a DC+DCTO selection. No way I can see going with Kansas City who aside from the shocker against Denver have been crushed in every other game. Defensively they are atrocious which must leave Favre salivating.
Line up to -14 now. Pass

Atlanta at Philadelphia (-9)
Hard to dismiss Atlanta after nice wins against Green Bay and Chicago. The Eagles are the best 3-3 team in the league however and are 5-1 record wise on the stats score. In addition they land trends support through ranking in the top tean in rushing and passing defense. Mixed signals.
Injury reports gives a vote to the Eagles making it even more mixed. Pass.

Cleveland at Jacksonville (-7)
You would think the Jaguars would have fared better than Cleveland on third down but that is not the case. Net 3rd Down Conversion rated on the year are +2% for the Browns (2% higher on offense than defense) but -12% for Jacksonville. Those kind of patterns turn around to be more in line with team talent according to FootballOutsiders. And so the Jags are a to-be-respected favorite. Lean to Jacksonville.
Injury news is a plus for the Jaguars.
-- Saturday Pick: Jacksonville -7

N.Y. Giants at Pittsburgh (-2.5)
Perhaps the best matchup of the week. The TMW tools are split, with Trends and third down on the Steelers, DC+DCTO and DC Dog status on the Giants. These 5-1 teams can be expected to play a good game but I have no certainty as to who wins.
Line moved to -3.

Seattle at San Francisco (-5)
I have not been hesitant to go against the 49ers as things fell apart. Yet they may be able on the heels of the coach firing to play with a little more freedom and confidence which could lead to a big win against a similarly free falling Seahawks. Not clear that laying so many points is a good idea though. Let's see if the injuries have any assistance.
Injuries side with the Seahawks in spite of having to go with a backup QB. Pass.

Cincinnati at Houston (-9.5)
As I mentioned last week Ryan Fitzpatrick is simply not a QB I would trust money on. The Texans are 2-4 but the great failing has been pass defense (7.8 yards per play allowed with penalties, sacks, included). The last two weeks Cincinnati has managed 2.5 and 3.0 yards per passing play, without a single 20+ gain. This makes me think the blowout is at hand. Stats score wise the Bengals have never been within single digits and the carefree comments from the players trouble me that the Bengals are and have been mailing it in for some time. Not ready to be laying so much but lean to Houston.
Line at -9 now.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-4)
The TMW team season win picks are looking promising with two exceptions: over 6 for Kansas City, and under 8 for Tennessee. Can write those off as losses now. The Titans formula of defense first has been successful but the Colts tore apart a very good Baltimore defense two weeks back. Trends say Tennessee and I lean that way.
Still not a complete Titans believer since none of their opponents so far is a better than .500 team. Of course they are facing a .500 team this week! Pass.

- Scott's picks week seven
- Scott's picks week six
- Scott's picks week five
- Scott's picks week four
- Scott's picks week three
- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one