NFL 2008: Week Nine

Timing Notes
I will typically post the first look (with picks and leans) on Wednesday. The downside is there is no official injury report until Friday nowadays in the NFL. To ignore injuries is foolish and so there will be an update on Saturday with any adjustments. Saturday update notes are in italics. The Saturday analysis is more complete and will be the basis for record-keeping.

Week Nine Overview
This year has a suprising number of terrible teams: Detroit, Cincinnati, Kansas City, (Oakland, San Francisco). Line value becomes tempting on these types but I like to see some signs of life before plunging on a team based almost solely on hope.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)
Jets are 4-3 but should be 5-2 based on game stats score, while Buffalo is 5-2 but should be 4-3. The Bills saw the game get away from them in the second half last week versus Miami. Some mixed signs. Lean moderately to Jets at present.
Line down to -5.

Detroit at Chicago (-13)
Lions had the lead into the second half last week but have lost every game on the stats front by 23+ points. Which is to say they have yet to show a great deal of competitiveness with anyone. Bears off the bye is too much for me. Pass.
Bears are a big injury pick and that's enough to tilt a lean to Chicago, but I don't want to lay so many points with a defensive minded team.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (+7.5)
Bengals' backup QB is not going to get the job done. Cincy's closest stats score is -13 and every other game is a 23+ point stats loss. That is ugly and the team doesn't have that pissed off attitude you like to see on a winless side. Not ready to lay the Jags after last week. Pass.

Baltimore at Cleveland (-1.5)
Yes my season long love affair with the Ravens will continue. The Browns have looked good in beating the Giants and Jaguars but haven't had to go against a defense like Baltimore to this point. Against the Steelers the Browns were beaten 29-3 on the stats score. The DC+DCTO has the Ravens winning by 3 on the straight drive stats but by 16 with the turnovers factored in, which have not been kind to Baltimore: 7 lost fumbles on offense, only 1 recovered on defense.
-- Pick: Baltimore +1.5

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (+8)
Chiefs made a game of it last week but were beaten on the stats by 13 and benefited from a 91 yard interception return touchdown. Hard to see them getting much offense against a good Buccaneers defense. At the same time I don't like laying those points with a Bucs team that is shaky on the road. Pass.

Houston at Minnesota (-4.5)
Texans have clawed back to 3-4 after the 0-4 start and .500 must look good as a goal. They also have four straight games of rushing with a 50%+ success rate, and five straight games of outrageous passing effectiveness. Passing defense is their weakness but guess what, that's not much of a worry against Minnesota. The Vikings are off a bye but I lean to Houston.

Arizona at St. Louis (+3)
The Rams fired their coach and responded with two big upsets and a narrow defeat to the Patriots. That last game though was a blowout defeat on the stats score. Arizona is playing like you'd think with Kurt Warner as QB: high risk, high reward. It makes for some serious roller coaster riding. This is another DC+DCTO play as the Cards are 15 point winners on the straight drive stats and even bigger when the turnovers are included. I think the Cardinals show big here. A chance you can find the line at -2.5 so look for that, otherwise consider waiting for a drop.
-- Pick: Arizona -3

Green Bay at Tennessee (-5.5)
Titans undefeated and coming from a huge Monday night winner over former division powerhouse the Colts. Trends side strongly with them this week on the basis of stout defense and strong rushing. Some danger of a letdown and the Pack are off the bye. Nevertheless the recipe has been established and I am now duly impressed.
-- Pick: Tennessee -5.5
Line down to -4.5 and injury vote for Packers. Still like the Titans.

Miami at Denver (-3)
Denver after a nice start to the season had bad back to back losses to catch a needed bye week. How they respond is a touch uncertain to me. Pass.
Line now up to -3.5.

Dallas at NY Giants (-8)
Giants another big trends pick and I think America's team is over-rated even with Romo. Leaning to the Giants but no reason to rush on this one so let's see the injury news first.
Line up to -9. Keep the lean to New York but not playing it.

Atlanta at Oakland (+3)
Hard to back either Oakland or San Francisco right now but the Raiders did show up against the Jets a couple weeks back at home so wouldn't put it past them to do it again. Pass.

Philadelphia at Seattle (+7)
Did the Seahawks turn it around last week? I put it down more to the quality of opponent. So I lean to Philadelphia who remain under-rated in many ways. There are a lot of TMW tools saying Seattle here though so I will pass for now.
Won't find many games with more lopsided votes from the tools than this as Seattle is popular in all kinds of features. Nevertheless I think the Seahawks will be lucky to keep this close. Pass.

New England at Indianapolis (-5.5)
When the schedule was drawn up this probably looked like a classic. Instead we get two teams that seem shadows of their former selves. Something is not right with Peyton Manning I believe. Which does make the fat line tempting if a good enough case can be made for the Patriots. Let's see what the injuries have to add.
No definitive read from the injuries. Pass.

Pittsburgh at Washington (-1.5)
Redskins are interesting with six wins by 2 to 8 points. Yet they have five stats score blowout wins, including three straight by 27, 25, 32. Why are the games always so close? Steelers represent a good test and should calm down that Santana Moss juggernaut. No opinion right now.

- Scott's picks week eight
- Scott's picks week seven
- Scott's picks week six
- Scott's picks week five
- Scott's picks week four
- Scott's picks week three
- Scott's picks week two
- Scott's picks week one