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NFL '99 PREVIEWS

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
1998 Record 5-11


DRIVE CHARTS:

SD
OFFENSE
Drive
Result
SD
DEFENSE
10%
TD
15%
12%
FG
11%
44%
PUNT
47%
21%
TURNOVER
12%
30%
"Three and out"
34%

NFL Averages -- TD: 18%, FG: 12%, Punt: 42%, Turnover: 13%, "Three and out": 24%, Twelve Drive Points: 19.5

12 Drive Averages
Team
POINTS
San Diego FOR
San Diego AGN
13.1
17.1
San Diego ranked #29 in offense, #9 in defense on the TwoMinuteWarning.com Drive Chart ratings.


DOWN-BY-DOWN:

>SD
OFFENSE
Down-By-Down
>SD
DEFENSE
Yds
PSR
Rush
Big
DOWN
Yds
PSR
Rush
Big
4.5
41%
52%
8%
1st
4.0
38%
52%
6%
3.4
34%
45%
7%
2nd
4.3
39%
41%
9%
4.9
35%
21%
7%
3rd
5.0
31%
19%
9%

LEGEND: Yds: average yards per play (note penalty yardage is included), PSR: "Play Success Rate" or the percentage of plays that meet with "success" -- see the Team Stats Explained! section for full details, Rush: percentage of time a rushing play is called (if a team rushes 40% on first down, it means they pass 60% of the time), Big: percentage of plays that are big gainers, defined as 10+ yards on a rushing play, 20+ yards on a passing play.

SD
OFFENSE
DEFENSE
Rushing PSR
43%
33%
Passing PSR
33%
40%
Big Gain
8%
8%


DIRECTIONAL RUSHING:

San Diego on DEFENSE
Big
20%
7%
7%
0%
15%
PSR
40%
38%
39%
25%
47%
Yds
3.5
3.1
3.2
1.7
4.5

Wide L
Left
Middle
Right
Wide R

Yds
7.7
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
PSR
62%
44%
44%
52%
40%
Big
25%
7%
10%
6%
10%
San Diego on OFFENSE

LEGEND: Yds: average yards per play (note penalty yardage is included), PSR: "Play Success Rate" or the percentage of plays that meet with "success" -- see the Team Stats Explained! section for full details, Big: percentage of plays that are big gainers, defined as 10+ yards on a rushing play, 20+ yards on a passing play.


COMMENTARY:

If ever a defense deserved a medal of honor, the 1998 Chargers' defenders are more than worthy. That San Diego was able to win five games last season is a testament to how effective Seau's corps were, for the 'Bolts offense put up pitiful passing numbers, and after Natrone Means went down to injury they were no great shakes running it either!

The drive chart stats illuminate some of San Diego's problems -- on offense they were worst in the NFL in committing turnovers, with 21% of their drives ending in "disgrace". Moreover when they held on to the ball they only managed to find the end zone on 10% of drives, and were second worst in the league in projected offensive points per twelve drives.

Certainly the most glaring deficiency is at the quarterback spot, where top rookie Ryan Leaf was a complete bust in his first go-round in the NFL, and while you have to admire Craig Whelihan's heart (and he pulled out a great win over the Chiefs in the last minute of the fourth quarter), the stats show he wasn't much of an improvement:

QB
PSR
Big
Yds/play
Sack %
3rd Down
Leaf
33%
5%
4.4
8%
29%
Whelihan
34%
7%
5.0
5%
37%

To be successful in the NFL you need to do a whole lot better than 33% PSR! Consequently, the 'Bolts went out and signed veteran Jim Harbaugh in the hope that he will a) provide a solid starting QB for '99, and b) instill some "learning" in young man Leaf.

Meanwhile Natrone proved he can still be one of the more effective inside runners in the league, but his ability to stay healthy for a full season must be questioned.

The 'Bolts defense, ah, now that's something worth talking about! Holding opponents to an unbelievable 33% "Play Success Rate" rushing the football exemplifies the fine work done in the trenches, especially by the tackles Hand and Parrella. For teams that tried to run "inside right" against San Diego -- "good luck!" -- they quickly learned the meaning of the word 'futile' as the Chargers allowed a meager 1.7 yards per carry and 25% PSR, without a single 10+ yard gain! Considering that "stuffed" runs often don't count in the directional stats (the running back is tackled before a true direction can be established), the above numbers are incredible. Even the mighty Terrell Davis struggled to pick up ground against San Diego. The passing defense was excellent as well in most cases.

While the drive chart stats don't do the Chargers justice on the defensive side of the ball, since they frequently found themselves defending deep in their own territory due to yet another intercepted pass thrown by their QB's, they still posted the best "three and out" percentage in the league, at a whopping 34% of opponents drives getting the "quick treatment".

What's in store for '99? The coaching job was given to ex-Oregon State guru Mike Riley, who is far from a conventional "safe" choice, but may fare well. Much depends on the ability of the Chargers to resurrect the passing attack to at least respectable levels, and while Harbaugh solidifies the chance of that being accomplished, there will still be a need to give Ryan "anything can happen" Leaf a second chance at proving the Chargers didn't make one of the all-time colossal mistakes in trading up to draft him.

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