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NFL Season Wins Research
In part one of our tips for making good NFL team season win over/under bets, we examined how teams with certain records have typically performed the next season. In part two we will examine whether there are over/under biases to specific lines, and if a "bounce" effect exists in the NFL.
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Predicting Season Win Totals, part II
Thanks to our friends at Americasline.com, we were able to get our hands on the season win over/under lines for the five years from 1996 to 2000, and then we have added in our own results from the 2001 thru 2004 campaigns. Consequently we can provide a nine-year look at this bet type! The first breakout to consider is simply how have teams done at certain "win lines" (for example how often have teams with a line of 8 go over versus under the number).
However, there is one thing to note with these results -- with the emergence of the offshore industry we have seen the bet type move to being frequently posted on 1/2 win numbers (to avoid the commonplace pushes on whole numbers) with a money line adjustment. As a result there are few new whole number cases, and the scheme really needs to be changed to reflect the prices on the totals, not just the straight W-L outcomes. With help from Bodog.com we should shortly be able to factor in prices on the lines.
Season Win
Line |
# of Cases |
Overs |
Unders |
Over % |
| 4.5 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
100% |
| 5 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
25% |
| 5.5 |
21 |
12 |
9 |
57% |
| 6 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
83% |
| 6.5 |
29 |
12 |
17 |
41% |
| 7 |
16 |
7 |
9 |
44% |
| 7.5 |
33 |
22 |
11 |
67% |
| 8 |
23 |
9 |
14 |
39% |
| 8.5 |
42 |
20 |
22 |
48% |
| 9 |
17 |
11 |
6 |
65% |
| 9.5 |
26 |
10 |
16 |
38% |
| 10 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
44% |
| 10.5 |
22 |
7 |
15 |
32% |
| 11 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
50% |
| 11.5 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
43% |
| 12 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
100% |
All records are from 1996-2004.
Team Seasons where the season wins equal the line (push bets) are ignored
ANALYSIS: All lines used in compiling the above table were "current" rather than opening ones, taken from close to the start of the season and presumably after most of the line moves had taken place.
It's important to be cautious when looking at small samples of data to NOT jump to conclusions. For instance, looking at the above it would seem that teams with adjusted season win lines (after significant betting activity) of 6 or fewer wins might be good OVER plays at 21-13 over the last nine years, but that's not a very statistically significant finding.
Likewise, teams with high adjusted win lines of 9 1/2 or more wins have done poorly, and as a result have gone 42-27 as UNDER plays, but it's again falling short of being very significant. Still, the history has been that there is potential value at "both ends" of the table.
More important though is how a team's prior year record compares to the line set for them this season (for example if a team was 6-10 last year but has a season win line of 8 1/2 this year, then they would count as a +2 1/2 on the "Net vs Line"):
Season Win Line
minus
Prior Year Wins |
# of Cases |
Overs |
Unders |
Over % |
| -3 |
8 |
1 |
7 |
13% |
| -2.5 |
18 |
8 |
10 |
44% |
| -2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
25% |
| -1.5 |
30 |
12 |
18 |
40% |
| -1 |
25 |
16 |
9 |
64% |
| -0.5 |
33 |
12 |
21 |
36% |
| 0 |
17 |
6 |
11 |
35% |
| 0.5 |
34 |
19 |
15 |
56% |
| 1 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
59% |
| 1.5 |
31 |
17 |
14 |
55% |
| 2 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
40% |
| 2.5 |
19 |
12 |
7 |
63% |
| 3 |
21 |
13 |
8 |
62% |
Team Seasons where the season wins equal the line (push bets) are ignored
ANALYSIS: While we are still stuck with our limited sample size, once more the extremes of the table are interesting. Teams with season win lines of 3 games or more BELOW their previous year's win total have gone 7-1 as UNDER plays. Meanwhile teams with season win lines of 3 games or more ABOVE their previous year total are 13-8 as OVER plays.
Or, to look at a larger grouping, when a team's season win line is 1.5 plus games below their prior year win total, such teams have gone 38-22 as UNDER plays, while teams with a line 1.5 games or more above their previous win tally are 44-32 as OVER plays.
This suggests that the season win lines may perhaps not reflect the true levels of improvement/decline expected with these dramatic cases -- understandable when you think bettors are already having to come to terms with a line of say 9 wins on a team that was 6-10 (or worse) in the previous year!
An even bigger view is to note that teams projected to have the same or worse record (0 to -3 or below) are 79-56 (58%) as under bets all told, while teams expected to improve by at least half a game are 73-54 (57%) as overs. In general then the line doesn't move far enough to represent the changes in the offseason.
So what's the snapshot take on the above for the 2005 NFL Season?
- Season Win Lines of 6 or fewer -- lean OVER
Cleveland, San Francisco, Miami
- Season Win Lines of 9.5 or more -- lean UNDER
Philadelphia, Indianapolis, New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York Jets, Minnesota, Kansas City, Atlanta
- Season win Lines projecting same or worse record -- lean UNDER
Pittsburgh, San Diego, New England, Green Bay, Denver, Atlanta, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Seattle, New York Jets, Indianapolis, Cincinnati
- Season win Lines projecting a better record -- lean OVER
Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Miami, Minnesota, Washington, Arizona, Tennessee, Baltimore, St. Louis, Houston, New York Giants, Cleveland
Again, all of this was just an exercise and should not be construed as a full scale analysis of how to play the season win numbers, for that you'll need to delve deeper...and we will! More articles coming soon on this subject.
Also see:
NFL Power Rankings
NFL Futures Betting Odds
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