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Stanford Wong on Sports Betting
There have been several books published in the past few years on sports betting, and we will attempt to review them all at some stage, but Stanford Wong's Book "Sharp Sports Betting" caught our eye because of the mathematical intensity he usually brings to his writing.
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Getting a handle on the numbers
For serious blackjack players, Stanford Wong is most likely a name they are familiar with, since Stanford is one of the core writers who has upped the level of knowledge on the game of 21 through various books, a web site (BJ21.com), and a personal presence in the casino gambling environment for over twenty-five years.
However, it was a little surprising when he elected to turn his focus to sports betting, since there is often not a lot of crossover between sports bettors and blackjack players. They may both be games where positive expectancies can be found, but most 21 fanatics look with disdain at sports gambling, since the probabilities are never as exact as they are in Blackjack, and sports bettors for their end have better things to do than sit at a smoky casino table, taking pit boss heat, for hours on end in the hope of milking a 1% advantage.
Nevertheless, there's certainly a need for some good sports handicapping books and Stanford sets out to try and fit the bill. Up front we should issue a disclaimer in that he does have some kind things to say about TwoMinuteWarning.com in the book, which perhaps makes us a little less than totally impartial.
It's best perhaps to begin with some notes on what the book is not. Sharp Sports Betting is not designed to give you handicapping systems and approaches which tell you which team to play, so much as it is designed to maximize your betting return for whichever side you choose. There is only one chapter (out of 17) dedicated specifically to discussion of how to pick a side/play, and even there it's with reservations that Stanford dives into the murky waters of what makes one team better than another.
Ways to get an edge can be divided into three categories:
a. Breaking News
b. Superior use of existing data
c. Motivation
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He then goes on to list examples in each category, so for Breaking News he says "to profit from news, generally you must hear the news
quickly and you must act on it quickly." Examples he gives where getting the jump on the news has helped him include a food poisoning incident, injury to a key player, a game right around the time of a Stadium Vote, and most effectively, when the XFL implemented rule changes in the middle of the season.
"Superior use of existing data" is certainly the domain we most closely adhere to, although for us a key is to create our own data rather than use conventional numbers. Finally with regard to Motivation, he runs through some situations like teams that have clinched, "Must Win" games, intensity versus talent, "up" home teams, big dogs, and discouraging losses.
This chapter isn't exactly handicapping dynamite, but it's the rest of the book which makes Sharp Sports Betting well worth reading (and using as a reference).
Wong is at his best when he is working with numbers, and fortunately this work, unlike many in the sports betting pantheorn, features multiple tables and charts geared towards the "number fiends" of the handicapping community. Some of the areas covered in excellent fashion include "testing W-L records for statistical significance" (e.g. it's 1000-1 to go 21-4 with a true 50% expectation, but only 1 in 100 to go 19-6), non-standard bet types including parlays, teasers, season wins and prop bets.
Stat fans will love the chapter on Poisson distribution (with accompanying appendix charts), as well as the analysis of when historically it has made sense to "buy" the extra half-point on the point spread.
My personal favorite chapter was one on March Madness college basketball and how to calculate expected wins per conference (a popular prop bet offering).
There are many admirable qualities to this work, and the only way to really be disappointed is to start reading it with the expectation that it would divulge methods and strategies that can be blindly employed with success -- that's not the case. If on the other hand you are after some rigorous statistical examination of various facets of sports wagering, then this book can be a valuable addition to your handicapping reference works. If you are like us, you'll be frequently pulling Sharp Sports Betting off your shelf to look up something in one of the many included charts.
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