Long a part of my contrarian handicapping methods, the Horrible Defeat Syndrome every year manages to tab a few games where one team's prior year humiliations leads to a super motivated effort...for the original article, penned by the inimitable SportsMaster Stan in 1997,
click here.
Clearly the most horrible defeat of the 2001 season was when Oakland lost at New England in the playoffs due to the infamous "instant replay overall" of the Brady fumble...however, while the Raiders and Patriots do meet up again in 2002, it's not in New England and the horrible defeat rules are very clear -- the rematch must be played at the same venue. Here then are the picks for the 2002 season:
Week 2
MIAMI at INDIANAPOLIS -- Pick: Indianapolis
When these two teams met in 2001, the Dolphins were 5-2 and the Colts 4-3 and Indy figured that with a win they could move into a tie with Miami and keep in the AFC East race. As it turned out the Colts did hold a 24-17 lead in the 4th quarter, but turned the ball over twice and allowed the unheralded Jay Fiedler to beat them with a drive that included a 4th down coversion followed by a 29-yd TD strike. Well, we all know how things went from there -- the Dolphins wound up 11-5 and in the playoffs, the Colts 6-10 and out. This season look for Dungy's troops to really exact a measure of revenge.
Week 3
SEATTLE at NEW YORK GIANTS -- Pick: Seattle
In a game that would prove costly for Seattle (who finished one game out of the playoffs), and perhaps marked the final demise of the "Matt Hasselbeck experiment", the Seahawks bowed out 27-24 to the Giants, but only after blowing a seven point 4th quarter lead when the Giants drove 96 yards to score with seconds remaining. In truth you could hardly have seen a softer prevent defense, once again making us wonder why NFL teams after playing so hard all game elect to give the opposing offense an easy trip down the field? Lesson learned though, and look for Holmgren (and Trent Dilfer) to deliver the win in 2002.
TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND -- Pick: TENNESSEE
On the one hand the meeting of these two teams in Cleveland in 2001 was a meaningless game -- it occurred in week 16 when both teams were out of the playoffs -- but nothing epitomized the Titans' disappointing year better than blowing a 38-24 4th quarter lead to the lowly (and generally punchless offensively) Browns. Cleveland after all ranked #26 in the NFL in points scored, so when they scored two touchdowns and a field goal in the span of ten minutes, it marked almost their entire highlight film of the year! Expect a focused effort from Tennessee in this early 2002 campaign bash.
Week 4
TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI -- Pick: Cincinnati
One wonders what exactly makes for a horrible defeat in Cincinnati -- isn't it just a typical Sunday? Before we fall into too many bad Bengal jokes though, let's give them credit for what could have been a strong showing in a spoiler role, when they took the Bucs to the brink in a week twelve contest. Tampa Bay was 5-5 and in desperate straits when they took the trip to Cincy, whereas the Bungles after a strong 4-3 start were now 4-6 and coming off a shutout loss to the Browns. Tampa seemed to have the game in hand at 13-3 in the 4th quarter when the Bengals put together a nice little comeback. After Gramatica missed a long Field Goal for the Bucs, the Bengals got their three points, made a crucial third down sack of Brad Johnson, and then drove 64 yards to score a TD on a nice toss from Kitna to Dillon with just seconds to go. Of course, this glory was shortlived when on their first touch of overtime, Dillon fumbled the ball at the Cincinnati 4 yard line! Ugh! Such is life for Bengals fans. Do expect an awesome performance in 2002 for the rematch, particularly given that Gruden will not realize the angst the loss caused since he was with the Raiders (and having his own painful memories) at the time...
Week 6
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI -- Pick: Pittsburgh
On the heels of the previous HDS pick this one is amusing -- in the 2001 version of this pairing the Bengals did pull off the improbably comeback and actually won in overtime! Down 23-10 with under five minutes remaining it looked bleak against the powerful Steel Curtain defense. However, after an interception in Steeler territory, Kitna managed to complete some passes and get into the end zone, at which point Cincinnati recovered an onside kick and were in business again! With the help of a defensive holding call on a 4th down incomplete pass, the Bengals scored a touchdown to notch the score with 45 seconds to go and then the PAT to give them the win...hit the right upright and sent it to overtime! Trust the Bengals to miss the extra point that would have capped a great effort! Surpisingly Cincinnati (losers of seven straight games at this stage) bounced back in overtime to finally win with a field goal. While the loss was hardly damaging for Pittsburgh, as their 13-3 final record was two games better than anyone else in the AFC, it's sure to stick in their minds a little and make for a better than usual energy level in 2002.
Week 10
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA -- Pick: Carolina
In what was a grim year for the Panthers, featuring many troubling defeats, the 2001 game at home against the Saints stands out as among the worst. New Orleans had them down at halftime 17-6, but the Panthers battled back and went ahead 25-20 on a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown inside the Two Minute Warning! New Orleans started their last gasp drive at their own 18-yd line, converted a 4th and down situation with under a minute to go, and then with only enough time for one more play, Ricky Williams plunged into the end zone as time expired -- game over (and agony for Carolina fans)! Carolina gets the proverbial fresh start in 2002, and the Saints may have their work cut out for them when this rematch happens.
MIAMI at NEW YORK JETS -- Pick: Miami
The Dolphins have had a string of tough defeats at the hands of the Jets, but the week five game last year must have been particularly bitter. Trying to end the Jets' domination, the Dolphins had a happy halftime holding a 17-0 lead. Well, the Jets scored a touchdown on the opening drive of the second half, Miami fumbled on its first offensive play, and the Jets then scored on a 27-yard run on the very next play! Wow -- TD, fumble, TD -- quite some sequence. The New Yorkers eventually grabbed a 21-17 lead, but with a little over a minute to go, Miami held first and goal at the New York 6 yd line...Fiedler took the snap, dropped back, and -bing- threw an interception! Awful! Groaner! and now we'll see if the Dolphins can't finally get over this Jets hump in week ten of 2002 (note they have a week three matchup at home, but this game is the Horrible Defeat play).
Week 11
ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA -- Pick: Philadelphia
The Eagles had a nice season, and even gave the Rams a run for their money in the playoffs. However, their week four contest at home against the Cardinals was not their shinging moment! As fourteen point favorites, they lost outright when Jake Plummer engineered another 4th quarter comeback, culminating in a 35 yard touchdown pass with nine seconds to go! It's bad enough to lose in the last seconds, but to give up a 35 yard bomb is disgraceful (or so the coaches and fans must have felt). No mercy in 2002, and no taking Arizona lightly means the Eagles should run up the score for this matchup.
Week 13
WASHINGTON at DALLAS -- Pick: Washington
This event is a Thanksgiving day bonanza. In 2001 this game represented the Redskins lowpoint of the year, as they lost in excrutiating fashion to fall to 0-5 (and only the Lavar Arrington miracle the next week turned the season around). It was a Monday Nighter (0-4 Washington takes on 0-4 Dallas...must-see TV!), that had the usual pitiful offensive performance you get when two bad teams meet on MNF. It was a 3-0 pitchers' duel at the end of the third quarter! The Redskins did manage to pull ahead and were up 7-6 with the ball in Dallas territory with less than three minutes to go when Davis fumbled and Dallas recovered. A Tim Seder 26-yd field goal as time expired brought the game to an end. Now normally of course it would be a very strong Horrible Defeat play to back the 'Skins in this one, but since Washington has undergone a coaching change, it's likely that the new crew led by Steve Spurrier won't be feeling the pain as much. Still, the players will have their memories...
MIAMI at BUFFALO -- Pick: Buffalo
The Bills of course had a miserable season, but the week eleven meeting at home with Miami was especially bad. Up 27-17 in the 4th quarter (and having just missed what would turn out to be a crucial extra point), they must have felt confident. Miami responded with a touchdown drive in which they converted a 4th and 14 play, to cut it to 27-24. The Bills went three and out, and the Dolphins came back to tie the score on a field goal. Well, now if you're a Bills fan you figure we get to see what this Van Pelt guy is made of in leading a Two Minute Warning drive...only he doesn't get the chance right away as a promising kickoff return turns into a fumble recovered by Miami! Fielder connects on a 32-yd TD strike and Van Pelt and company run out of time...and Buffalo denizens get even more depressed (and not just from sunlight deprivation). Many folks are hyping Buffalo as a team to watch in 2002, and while we won't go that far, they should be able to get the job done against Miami at home.
Week 15
DALLAS at NEW YORK GIANTS -- Pick: Dallas
Not much was expected from the 'Boys in 2001, but still when they found themselves ahead 24-7 in New York in week eight of the 2001 season they must have been pretty pleased. The lead wouldn't hold up, as the Giants chipped away and in part due to a blocked punt, sent the game to overtime. You know you're in trouble when Ryan Leaf is your Quarterback and in a humdrum affair, the Gnats knicked in with a Morten Anderson kick. A new year now is upon us, with still very little expected of the Cowboys, but we wouldn't be shocked if they pull off the late-season upset in New York.
OAKLAND at MIAMI -- Pick: Oakland
You may have noticed that a few teams are prominent in the list of Horrible Defeat rematches, with Miami top participant with no fewer than four such games! The bash with Oakland was early on in week two, and was a fairly conventional game up until the waning moments. The Raiders held a slim 15-10 lead inside the Two Minute Warning and punted the ball into the end zone -- meaning the Dolphins would need to go eighty yards to win. Well Fiedler proceeded to complete five of six passes (love those soft "prevent nothing" defenses, don't you?) and get the 'Fins inside the Oakland ten yard line. From there it ultimately took a seven yard and two yard QB runs (the latter upheld by the instant replay folks) and Miami had won! Again, as is the case elsewhere, the Raiders have a new coach who might not emphasize the defeat to the same extent, but given that Callahan was with the team, it's a safe bet that he will harbor some horror!
Week 17
SEATTLE at SAN DIEGO -- Pick: San Diego
Games in the last week of the season can be very difficult to predict this far in advance, but at least the inclination is to back the home squad who most likely will be out of playoff contention but looking to end on a high note. The Chargers failed in 2001 in just such a spot, in week sixteen (but their last game -- they had a bye in week 17) when they lost to the Seahawks in grim fashion. Indeed, San Diego had lost eight straight coming in and at 5-10 were simply hoping to capture the magic one last time before heading on vacation. In an exciting back and forth game, the Chargers saw Doug Flutie construct a couple of long drives ending in Field Goals, and after the 36-yarder with sixteen seconds left tied the score, it looked like we would be heading for overtime. Ah, but never underestimate the chance of a poor team screwing up the simple stuff. On the ensuing kickoff, rather than a squib, Wade Richey kicked it deep, where it was taken at the goal-line and brought back 64 yards!! Suddenly in field goal range, the Seahawks hustled to get their kicking team out on the field at which point Ryan Lindell calmly booted the 54 yarder through the uprights...DOH! It actually of course seemed like a fitting way for the San Diego season to end. In 2002 though we will most likely be seeing Drew Brees at the helm in week 17, and Schottenheimer will want to end the year on a bang even if the 'Bolts are only playing for pride.
