Preseason Week Three Picks
So there I was, in a heated argument with some fellow scofflaws down at the bar about which is the best betting game. The attendees on this high level debate were poker-boy, horseplayer dude, card counting 21 hound, yours truly, and Martha Stewart.
Poker-boy was of course blathering on about how poker is the ultimate skill game and that players make their own luck. Furthermore, his argument goes, poker represents the highest level of gambling skills since you need to combine mathematical expertise (knowing the odds of a particular hand, etc), the ability to read opponents while successfully keeping them in the dark as to what you are up to, along with a firm grasp of money management...and huge cajones. My answer was that he should go watch the movie SNATCH again (four stars says Tim, rent it today if you haven't seen it).
Horseplayer dude agreed that poker was a challenging game where the more skilled could come out on top, but because of that downgrades it since unless you have the gumption to think you're th best in the world, chances are one day you'll run up against someone better than yourself who will take your whole roll home. Betting on the races on the other hand is a game against your fellow bettors, but you don't have to beat 'em all, just know when the odds are in your favor. The Dude it should be added has arguably the most sophisticated computer setup I've ever seen and does very well betting races all across the country from his home. My retort was 20% takeout (or more on some of the super exotic style bets), not to mention a 'fair bit of larceny' as Andy Beyer likes to say about the various trainer/jockey/owner/steward/track maintenance folks shenanigans.
Next up was card counting 21 hound who started pulling out charts with optimal hi-opt IV count advantage numbers and percentages. He talked up a storm on how games can be found all over the world that can be beat and that his jetsetting lifestyle allows him to spend time in some of the supposed ultimate vacation spots and earn some nice dough. My suggestion was that any profession requiring frequent trips to the plastic surgeon is not exactly ideal.
I then made the case for sports betting -- low odds to overcome (think you can hit 52.4%?), relaxed/friendly relations with the bet-takers (eg no 21 pitboss heat), a year round smorgasboard of wagers to be considered, tax writeoff to attending professional sporting events, and a purpose to all those memorized baseball statistics. The general response was "yeah whatever" and everyone was back to hyping their own chosen game.
Martha had just finished turning the tablecloth into a hammock, and after whipping up a cool spring shake (milk, peanut butter cups, banana, ice) she started swaying contentedly in comfy red and white checked webbing. "Sorry boys," she purred (all right, Martha doesn't actually purr but stay with me here), "but you're all wet. Insider trading is the only way to go..."
Well, truth be told, all the games have their plusses and minuses and only you can know the best game for you!
Back to football and the big, hearty BRAVO! again goes to the TwoMinuteWarning.com research moles for last week's results, as their multi-part series on how to bet the preseason games came through, again, with a bang. In particular, what they call their "double advantage" picks were a splendid 3-0 and apparently 10-2 on the year.
Old Timmy did y'all a favor by listing plays for some of the research in my early preseason betting columns -- Early Reads Part I and Early Reads Part II -- and those two columns have cumulative 7-4 and 4-1 records.
If you missed this "illuminating" series then here's what you need:
- Part I: "GAP" comparisons
- Part II: WIN comparisons
- Part III: Offensive/Defensive Ranks
- Part IV: Teaser Percentages
- Part V: Coaches Preseason Records
Onwards and upwards. I'm under a mandate to make a call on every game which is clearly a disadvantage since half the games in preseason are total crapshoots. My actual Win-O-Rama special plays have been doing nicely thank you (see above and the Early Reads Part I in particular for my Detroit extra strong play call).
The other problem I have with picking every game in preseason is that my simple answer is "bet the dog" but somehow that hardly seems like enough for a column...so we'll continue on with the routine.
Da Picks:
San Diego +6.5
Baltimore +7
Carolina +6.5
Chicago -6
Tennessee +3.5
Atlanta +3.5
Buffalo +3.5
Denver -2.5
Kansas City +3
Houston +3.5
New Orleans +3
New York Jets -3
Detroit +3
Oakland -4
Tampa Bay -3
Cleveland +5
Last week: 6-9-1
Preseason record: 14-17
Let's check in with the contest between the four "bankroll managers" running around in my head. To refresh your memory they are stodgy, happy, due boy and manic. They have their own way of playing, so let's see who wins! We gave 'em each $1000 to start and after the second week here are the standings:
Stodgy: $925
Manic: $877
Due Boy: $856
Happy: $850
So everyone took a tumble in the bad week. We'll see who is on top at the end of the snicker games.
Here's how it looks for week 3:
Stodgy: mister conservative when it comes to playing, divvies up only half the roll and bets evenly across all games. So, rounding up it's $33 on each of the sixteen.
Happy: assumes the best, bets everything every week, evenly across games. So, $55 on each of the above picks.
Due Boy: believes in the law of averages. Base bet per game per day is $33, but after a losing day doubles the bets the next day, and so on until a winning day. So he goes $33 on the Thursday game, will stay at $33 if he wins for Friday's games, go to $66 if he loses and so on.
Manic: bets 10% of his roll per game, divided by the square root of the games in action at once. So he goes 10% on Thursday, 5% per game on Friday, 3.1% per game on Saturday, and rolls 10% each on the Monday Nighter.
