Do Preseason Games Matter?
Today's topic is can we learn anything from what happens in preseason?
The games do matter to the players who get injured, the ones fighting to make the team, the ones battling for a starting position, and the ones where the team management isn't completely sold on the player (a case in point being Antowain Smith in New England who woke up to the news that the Patriots had signed Jamal Anderson...a good move for the team, but it puts the pressure on Smith).
Can we though as educated bettors glean anything from how a team performs that will help us with future bets?
The TwoMinuteWarning research moles have been at it again, and in case you missed it they put out a nifty article covering some of the above questions:
- Do preseason records matter?
The basic summary is:
- preseason won-lost records can be predictive
- for previous season teams with good records (10+ wins) it doesn't matter much
- previous year average teams (7 to 9 wins) do much better if they get 3+ preseason victories
- previous season poor teams (less than 7 wins) are likewise stronger when they've nailed three W's in the preseason
Well there is one more week to go for preseason, but let's see what we can deduce at this point relating to the above.
Average Teams (7 to 9 wins) in 2001
Lookin'
Good |
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Lookin'
Bad |
Washington (4-0)
Atlanta (3-0)
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Cleveland (2-0)
Tennessee (2-1)
Denver (2-1)
New York Giants (2-2)
Tampa Bay (2-1)
New Orleans (2-1)
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Seattle (1-2)
Arizona (1-2)
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Okay, I dislike the Steve Spurrier buzz as much as the next guy, but in light of the research, he's done a great job getting Washington geared for a better year in 2002 than they had in 2001 (and remember that the 'Skins rolled off an 8-3 record after the 0-5 start). Atlanta is the other mover at this point, but a lot there will depend on how quickly Michael Vick can develop.
What's amazing is that so many of the teams in this class have good records. Of the 10 "average 2001" teams, eight have nabbed two plus wins already. Maybe the coaches know the research too! The seven teams with the duo of wins face "must win" preseason pressure in the last game: the history shows the difference between 2 preseason wins and 3 preseason wins is TWO regular season wins!
Seattle and Arizona are in for it I agree this season: they play in the NFL's toughest division and Seattle has QB question marks now that Dilfer's hurt, while 'Zona is still praying that Thomas Jones can carry the load at Running Back.
Poor Teams (6 or fewer wins) in 2001
Lookin'
Good |
? |
Lookin'
Bad |
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?
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Indianapolis (2-1)
Cincinnati (2-1)
Kansas City (2-1)
San Diego (2-1)
Dallas (2-1)
Minnesota (2-1)
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Buffalo (0-3)
Detroit (0-3)
Carolina (0-3)
Jacksonville (1-2)
Houston (1-3) ??
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In contrast to the average guys, not a one of the poor teams has already clinched "improvement likelihood" status...and what a coveted thing that is!
The five teams with a chance to get that prized third win will be on the line in week four and we'll have more on that later in the week.
Then we get to the scragglers, the lousy previous season teams who you would figure, duh, would want to make a strong showing in preseason. Not happening in Buffalo, Detroit, and Carolina, and barely showing signs of life in Jacksonville.
A little fact to keep in mind is that so far this preseason, the previous year good teams are 14-19 combined, the average teams are 21-10 combined, and the poor teams are 14-20 combined!
All of this makes me eager to place some more season win bets...I'll address that after the last preseason games have been played
[editor's note: could this mean a revision to the
NFL futures hedge fund ?]
tim@twominutewarning.com
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