Week Four Preseason Picks
Today old Timmy-Two-Tone will give out gratis to you not only a pick on every preseason game this week (probably best to disregard those anyway) but also, completely free, my bonafide, seventeen star, WIN-O-RAMA Preseason game of the century!!!
Yes, those other hacks are teasing you with "game of the year" picks, but really, how much confidence can you have in those? I mean they have one every single year for eff'ing's sake. No, what I offer is truly special! Something so rare, so exquisite that it comes along only once every hundred years -- many people go though life without ever seeing one -- and can only be trumped by my occasional "game of the millenium" picks (those are never free however).
Alas, as the editor keeps telling me, "cut the blathering, stick with the facts" and so we must turn to the dry, detached, unemotional (GAME OF THE CENTURY coming right up!) analysis that concludes with a (GAME OF THE CENTURY!) thoughtful summary of probabilistic (GAME OF THE CENTURY) likelihoods designed to inform the (GAME OF THE CENTURY!) educated readers of this (GAME OF THE CENTURY!!!!!!) running dialogue.
All I can add is that for crying out loud, it's the
GAME OF THE CENTURY!!!!
Now, where I did put my lucky coin...
Anyway, back to football and with only one week left in preseason you're a little late in the game if you haven't yet read the TwoMinuteWarning.com research moles' multi-part series on how to bet the preseason games...but if you missed 'em, do yourself a favor and absorb the following:
- Part I: "GAP" comparisons
- Part II: WIN comparisons
- Part III: Offensive/Defensive Ranks
- Part IV: Teaser Percentages
- Part V: Coaches Preseason Records
The so called "Double Advantage plays" are 11-4 in the preseason and so yes there is value in the above.
Old Timmy did y'all a favor by listing plays for some of the research in my early preseason betting columns -- Early Reads Part I and Early Reads Part II -- and those two columns have cumulative 7-4 and 7-4 records respectively ("how do you like dem apples?")
I'm under a mandate to make a call on every game which is clearly a disadvantage since half the games in preseason are total crapshoots and so again the following picks as a whole should be deemed suspect...with one exception!
Da Picks:
San Francisco +3.5
Arizona +5
Atlanta +4
Baltimore -3
Buffalo +3.5
Miami -3
Jacksonville -2.5
Pittsburgh -4.5
Washington -7
Seattle +4.5
Cleveland -1.5
Indianapolis +2.5
New York Jets -5.5
Kansas City -3.5
Houston +6.5
Green Bay +3
Last week: 7-7-1
Preseason record: 21-24
Now, if we might turn your attention to the truly inspirational game at hand...Maestro please
Theme music from Close Encounters
dum...dum...dum...DUM-DUM! (boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom)
TIM's OFFICIAL
"PRESEASON GAME OF THE CENTURY"
as certified by the NFL Futures Hedge Funds
...the envelope please...
...[sounds of envelope being torn open]...
...and the winner is...
MINNESOTA! (tumultous applause)
...at plus four and a half on the line
Now some of the sharper tools in the shed among you out there probably have a few questions for the genius that is Tim's giant like-a-computer brain, so we'll do a little Q&A forthwith:
Q: Tim, I'm a big fan of your amazing ability to pick winner after winner, and I always remember that easy 73-0 moneymaker in the chicago-washington game back in 1940 you gave out, but I'm just a young whippersnapper so can you tell me what your lifetime "game of the century" record is?
A: Certainly Mr. Whippersnapper, my lifetime preseason "game of the century" tally is 12-1, next question.
Q: Tim, I've already maxed out my credit cards getting down on the Vikings so don't for a minute take this as some kind of doubting you thing, but can you give me a little insight into why you pick them this week over a tough Steelers team in cold, unfriendly Pittsburgh?
A: No problem, Mr. Doubting Thomas, the only thing that will suffer from your having less than 100% confidence is your wallet! Ha ha! I mean really, don't you know anyone else, don't you have any friends, relatives whose money you can use? What about property, do you own real estate? Second mortgages are always good bankroll funders. Anyway, back to your question Mr. Wuss, the reason why I know in advance that this game is a mortal lock is because it has FOUR of the frickin' fantastic TMW research factors pointing towards Minnesota, which means it's not a "double advantage" play or a "triple advantage" play but a a bleepin' "Quadruple Advantage" play!!
Q: Tim, I'm a little unclear here. On the full list of every game you actually list Pittsburgh as your pick and yet you then turn around and say Minnesota is the game of the century. What's that all about, I mean are you really giving out both sides in the same game?
A: Listen Mr. Too-Smart-For-His-Own-Good, I deal with clowns like you all the time. It's pretty frickin' simple but let me explain it in a way that even your tiny mind can understand: the every game picks are my "Gold Plays" and you get those for the great deal price of $299 for the season, but for the big players who need games they can really get down on in a big way (and I mean BIG, go ask any sportsbook in Vegas if they've ever been hurt by a Two Minute Tim move and you'll know what real fear looks like) I have the special Platinum play club ($1999 for the season and worth every damn penny) and that's where you'll find the game of the century. 'Nuff said. By the way Mr. Can't-Get-Any, do you realize that you are depriving a village someplace of a perfectly good idiot?
Q: Tim, I'm impressed with how you go out on a limb like you do, but I'm wondering if there's any kind of guarantee you offer on this pick?
A: I'm always amused, Mr. No-Cahones, by questions like yours. Even after I go to great lengths to make it clear that my information is unsurpassed (did I mention I know a guy who works as the bleepin' Pittsburgh locker room attendant?? Do you think having connections like that makes any difference to my being able to give out winners? Yeah, you bet it does!) there are still those people looking for a little extra. Isn't a game that can't lose enough for you? Well, I guess not. So here's what I'll do for you pal, if by some inconceivable happening Minnesota should fail to cover (and really, you're more likely to get hit by lightning while taking a bath), then I will give you my picks for the rest of the year absolutely FREE! Now that is some deal I'm offering. Anyway, time's up, see everyone at the post-game party.
Meanwhile, let's check in with the contest between the four "bankroll managers" running around in my head. Here are the standings:
Stodgy: $904
Due Boy: $829
Happy: $808
Manic: $777
For week 4:
Stodgy: mister conservative when it comes to playing, divvies up only half the roll and bets evenly across all games. So, rounding up it's $33 on each of the sixteen.
Happy: assumes the best, bets everything every week, evenly across games. So, $50 on each of the above picks.
Due Boy: believes in the law of averages. Base bet per game per day is $33, but after a losing day doubles the bets the next day, and so on until a winning day. So he goes $33 on the Wednesday game, will stay at $33 if he wins for Thursday's games, go to $66 if he loses and so on.
Manic: bets 10% of his roll per game, divided by the square root of the games in action at once. So he goes 10% on Wednesday, 3.3% per game on Thursday, and rolls 4% each on the Friday action.
tim@twominutewarning.com
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