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So the TwoMinuteWarning.com guys just released some research on preseason football betting that looks at what they call "GAP" comparisons. Basically each team is rated by its last season wins as either Good, Average, or Poor (hence the GAP terminology). Then they crank through the last five years of preseason play and analyze the results of certain types of match-ups (i.e. what has happened when a "Good" home team has played a "Poor" away team).
Anyway, it was a good read and I recommend you check it out yourselves --
GAP comparisons. Old Timmy here will go one step further though and talk about this season's preseason schedule and where the above research fits in so far as making picks.
There are three angles that come out of the research that we can say right now who to play (sounds incredible, doesn't it?), and the rules are:
1) Play POOR away teams against AVERAGE home teams
2) Play AGAINST Poor home teams in week one versus average/poor away teams
3) Play POOR teams in week two, giving the edge to the home side when both clubs are POOR
Personally of the three rules, I like #1 the best. A 24-6 record or 80% makes me feel pretty happy to back it, although let's not overlook the snippy 11-1 and 22-6 numbers of #2 and #3. Somehow a week specific angle in preseason seems a little dicey.
Here then are the picks according to the above:
[ Final 2002 Preseason Results: 8-5]
Week 1
Jacksonville at Atlanta -- Pick: Jacksonville (#1)
- LOST
Indianapolis at Seattle -- Pick: Indianapolis (#1)
- WON
Cincinnati at Buffalo -- Pick: Cincinnati (#2)
- WON
Arizona at San Diego -- Pick: Arizona (#2)
- WON
Cleveland at Minnesota -- Pick: Cleveland (#2)
- WON
Washington at Carolina -- Pick: Washington (#2)
- Pushed
Week 2
Detroit at Cleveland -- Pick: Detroit (#1)
- WON
Minnesota at Buffalo -- Pick: Buffalo* (#3)
- LOST
Seattle at San Diego -- Pick: San Diego (#3)
- WON
Cincinnati at Indianapolis -- Pick: Indianapolis* (#3)
- LOST
Dallas at Carolina -- Pick: Carolina* (#3)
- Pushed
Detroit at Cleveland -- Pick: Detroit** (#3)
- WON
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville -- Pick: Jacksonville (#3)
- LOST
Week 3
Kansas City at Seattle -- Pick: Kansas City (#1)
- Pushed
Week 4
Carolina at Cleveland -- Pick: Carolina (#1)
- WON
Indianapolis at New Orleans -- Pick: Indianapolis (#1)
- LOST
The * indicates a marginal play, a ** indicates an extra strong play
So all told that is 1 extra strong pick, 12 regular picks, and 3 marginal picks. A lot of action! We'll keep tabs on how these do and of course I will mention them in the week the games take place in my "official picks."
tim@twominutewarning.com
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