Historical 6-pt Teaser Cover Rates, 1983-2000
Line for
Team |
Away Record |
Away WIN% |
Home Record |
Home Win% |
| -14.5 or more |
10 - 4 |
71 % |
55 - 31 |
63 % |
| -14 |
3 - 1 |
75 % |
26 - 18 |
59 % |
| -13.5 |
2 - 1 |
66 % |
25 - 26 |
49 % |
| -13 |
4 - 4 |
50 % |
15 - 13 |
53 % |
| -12.5 |
2 - 3 |
40 % |
13 - 6 |
68 % |
| -12 |
6 - 0 |
100 % |
24 - 4 |
85 % |
| -11.5 |
8 - 3 |
72 % |
16 - 7 |
69 % |
| -11 |
4 - 6 |
40 % |
29 - 20 |
59 % |
| -10.5 |
13 - 5 |
72 % |
40 - 19 |
67 % |
| -10 |
12 - 11 |
52 % |
61 - 21 |
74 % |
| -9.5 |
19 - 8 |
70 % |
46 - 31 |
59 % |
| -9 |
9 - 3 |
75 % |
49 - 19 |
72 % |
| -8.5 |
13 - 4 |
76 % |
54 - 18 |
75 % |
| -8 |
16 - 8 |
66 % |
64 - 22 |
74 % |
| -7.5 |
29 - 14 |
67 % |
58 - 31 |
65 % |
| -7 |
57 - 24 |
70 % |
180 - 59 |
75 % |
| -6.5 |
49 - 14 |
77 % |
97 - 58 |
62 % |
| -6 |
34 - 15 |
69 % |
108 - 48 |
69 % |
| -5.5 |
35 - 14 |
71 % |
81 - 35 |
69 % |
| -5 |
30 - 14 |
68 % |
61 - 28 |
68 % |
| -4.5 |
28 - 19 |
59 % |
63 - 40 |
61 % |
| -4 |
54 - 21 |
72 % |
111 - 52 |
68 % |
| -3.5 |
75 - 50 |
60 % |
141 - 83 |
62 % |
| -3 |
137 - 63 |
68 % |
206 - 73 |
73 % |
| -2.5 |
66 - 47 |
58 % |
134 - 48 |
73 % |
| -2 |
44 - 34 |
56 % |
63 - 32 |
66 % |
| -1.5 |
56 - 35 |
61 % |
66 - 28 |
70 % |
| -1 |
51 - 24 |
68 % |
68 - 25 |
73 % |
| 0 |
42 - 27 |
60 % |
47 - 19 |
71 % |
| +1 |
66 - 25 |
72 % |
49 - 24 |
67 % |
| +1.5 |
72 - 22 |
76 % |
68 - 23 |
74 % |
| +2 |
73 - 22 |
76 % |
65 - 13 |
83 % |
| +2.5 |
124 - 58 |
68 % |
85 - 28 |
75 % |
| +3 |
199 - 99 |
66 % |
159 - 53 |
75 % |
| +3.5 |
154 - 70 |
68 % |
79 - 46 |
63 % |
| +4 |
112 - 49 |
69 % |
46 - 29 |
61 % |
| +4.5 |
73 - 30 |
70 % |
36 - 11 |
76 % |
| +5 |
64 - 24 |
72 % |
28 - 17 |
62 % |
| +5.5 |
84 - 32 |
72 % |
36 - 13 |
73 % |
| +6 |
106 - 49 |
68 % |
31 - 17 |
64 % |
| +6.5 |
114 - 41 |
73 % |
42 - 21 |
66 % |
| +7 |
152 - 88 |
63 % |
54 - 26 |
67 % |
| +7.5 |
62 - 27 |
69 % |
24 - 19 |
55 % |
| +8 |
56 - 28 |
66 % |
17 - 7 |
70 % |
| +8.5 |
45 - 27 |
62 % |
11 - 6 |
64 % |
| +9 |
52 - 26 |
66 % |
10 - 3 |
76 % |
| +9.5 |
53 - 24 |
68 % |
18 - 9 |
66 % |
| +10 |
49 - 32 |
60 % |
19 - 5 |
79 % |
| +10.5 |
41 - 18 |
69 % |
11 - 7 |
61 % |
| +11 |
33 - 16 |
67 % |
10 - 0 |
100 % |
| +11.5 |
14 - 9 |
60 % |
7 - 4 |
63 % |
| +12 |
16 - 12 |
57 % |
3 - 3 |
50 % |
| +12.5 |
13 - 6 |
68 % |
5 - 0 |
100 % |
| +13 |
19 - 9 |
67 % |
8 - 0 |
100 % |
| +13.5 |
37 - 14 |
72 % |
2 - 1 |
66 % |
| +14 |
32 - 11 |
74 % |
3 - 1 |
75 % |
| +14.5 or more |
60 - 27 |
68 % |
9 - 5 |
64 % |
From the above it can be seen that there are certain "line zones" which have had great teaser records, and similarly some zones with lousy ones. Of course, it is confusing when there are so many rows, so let's try grouping some zones together:
Historical 6-pt Teaser Cover Rates, 1983-2000
Line for
Team |
Away Record |
Away WIN% |
Home Record |
Home Win% |
| -10 or more |
64 - 38 |
63% |
304 - 165 |
65% |
| -7.5 to -9.5 |
86 - 37 |
70% |
271 - 121 |
69% |
| -3.5 to -7 |
362 - 171 |
68% |
842 - 403 |
68% |
| 0 to -3 |
396 - 230 |
63% |
584 - 225 |
72% |
| +1 to +3 |
534 - 226 |
70% |
426 - 141 |
75% |
| +3.5 to +7 |
859 - 383 |
69% |
352 - 180 |
66% |
| +7.5 to +9.5 |
268 - 132 |
67% |
80 - 44 |
65% |
| +10 or more |
314 - 154 |
67% |
77 - 26 |
75% |
Now it becomes quite a lot clearer: the range to avoid on an overall basis is certainly the "big favorites" of 10+ points, which have been very poor teaser bets in general. On the other hand, home teams favored by 3 or less to underdogs of 3 or less have been excellent -- it must be noted though that home dogs have done very well against the spread historically and so the teaser results may be due to that rather than any particulars of the "range". Still as various people have pointed out, one of the goals of a good teaser play should be to pick up some of the key numbers in your cover range. If you tease a 2 point underdog, you now get the +3 and +7 results (very common occurrences) as part of your win range. Likewise teasing a favorite of 7.5 points now means that a 3 point or 7 point win will also count as a teaser cover.
Another big factor though in teaser bets is that getting 6 points is not necessarily the same to each team: if you have a match-up presumed to be low scoring, it might well be that the six points get you much more than the same number in a high-scoring affair where the scores will tend to be more volatile. Let's find out!
6-pt Teaser Cover Rates, 1983-2000,
by Over/Under line range
| O/U Range |
Away % |
Home % |
Total % |
| 34.5 or less |
68.0% |
66.5% |
67.2% |
| 35 to 39.5 |
69.4% |
68.8% |
69.1% |
| 40 to 44.5 |
66.5% |
70.5% |
68.5% |
| 45 or more |
67.0% |
68.4% |
67.7% |
Well, the theory is sort of proved correct since the 35 to 39.5 is better than the higher o/u zones, but interestingly the lowest over/under games are historically the worst "blind" teaser bets!
One last question you might ask is how have the results in week one been compared to all weeks? Week one has been good for teaser players, since Home Teams have successfully teased 72.4% of the time, Away teams 68.4%, and ALL teams have had a healthy 70.4% success rate. That however is over the full 1983 to 2000 range, whereas the recent results have been a stark contrast with away teams dominating. Research can be helpful, but as the last example illustrates you don't want to be ruled by it -- trends change, so make sure your handicapping analysis is the focus and you will be fine.
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