Monday, September 9th 2002

THE WEEK THAT WAS If you love a high scoring football game, then week one of the 2002 season has been your ticket to happiness. It's not often that there are three games in a week where both teams score 30+ points and something like eleven overs on the Sunday total. Here's a quick snapshot using the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal. For those new to the numbers here's the guide: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. San Francisco at N.Y. Giants Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR San Francisco 42% 12% 3.9 76 37% 15% 6.8 85 N.Y. Giants 26% 4% 1.4 30 47% 10% 5.8 76 Giants rushing game wasn't worth a darn, but passing games were surprisingly even and that's including the downgrade of the NYG effectiveness number for all those interceptions. Arizona at Washington Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Arizona 47% 5% 3.3 76 33% 8% 5.1 77 Washington 51% 6% 3.3 83 45% 7% 7.2 106 Passing game the difference here...both teams had high PSR rates rushing, but yds per pass numbers tell the story. Atlanta at Green Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Atlanta 73% 23% 6.0 153 39% 14% 6.5 110 Green Bay 62% 19% 5.6 118 58% 5% 8.3 146 You want offense? This was the game! Incredible stats...73% play success rate running the football for Atlanta and they should have stayed with it. That's partly the Vick effect, but no way to complain about a QB performance when the team scores 34 points against a good defense. Baltimore at Carolina Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Baltimore 44% 22% 4.3 88 44% 5% 5.3 78 Carolina 38% 15% 4.3 73 36% 8% 4.4 84 Both teams managed the occasional big gain rushing, but passing yards per attempt are very low. Detroit at Miami Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Detroit 40% 0% 2.0 70 35% 8% 5.7 75 Miami 53% 15% 4.4 104 64% 14% 8.3 171 Um, blowout? My gosh the Dolphins passing stats are gaudy and the Ricky inspired running game wasn't bad either. Defense also shut down the Lions until the late garbage time stages. Indianapolis at Jacksonville Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Indianapolis 46% 0% 3.7 60 50% 13% 6.5 131 Jacksonville 59% 6% 3.6 93 51% 5% 5.2 84 Colts passing advantage edged out Jaguars running superiority. Peyton Manning deserves big kudos for this game. Kansas City at Cleveland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Kansas City 56% 20% 6.4 126 43% 12% 8.1 115 Cleveland 40% 0% 2.9 50 60% 14% 8.5 167 Where the Wild Things were on Sunday - nothing comes close to this bizarre game and bizarre helmet off penalty that ended up deciding the whole thing. Tim says the helmet penalty is a dumb rule and shouldn't be in there. Don't the officials realize it can get hot in those things?? So much for William Green, the Browns couldn't move the ball on the ground, but Kelly Holcomb saved their bacon until the penultimate play. Kansas City offense got rolling, and with triple digit EFR's running and passing may be a team to watch. Minnesota at Chicago Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Minnesota 53% 22% 4.2 106 38% 13% 7.0 74 Chicago 38% 12% 2.6 76 47% 17% 8.1 122 Can you believe the Bears out-passed the Vikings? Good god, the Minnesota o.c. has some questions to answer for this one! Thomas stuffed badly in game one, although did get a TD to keep fantasy players happy. N.Y. Jets at Buffalo Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR N.Y. Jets 35% 29% 5.5 100 63% 6% 6.1 133 Buffalo 62% 13% 4.4 115 41% 4% 4.9 67 I was bitching about this outcome, since it's hard to lose a bet when your team gives up two kickoff TD returns, a blocked punt and general special teams ineptitude throughout. Numbers say the Jets should have won with that passing edge. 62% Rushing PSR a reason to be cheerful if you are a Buffalo fan. Philadelphia at Tennessee Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Philadelphia 45% 9% 3.6 59 36% 2% 3.8 54 Tennessee 30% 9% 2.4 47 53% 10% 7.5 128 Don't go telling me Eddie George is back - he may have had two touchdowns on the day, but the Titans rushing game was not getting it done. Air McNair proving he's a bonafide star in this league with his arm, not his legs. Meanwhile the Aikman debate lives on: McNabb threw 4 TD passes, but got picked twice, sacked six times, and yards per pass were very low -- Only one passing play went for 20+ yards. You can divide his attempts in half the TMW people tell me: 12 of the first 22 passing plays were successful, then it was 4 of 22 from then on! Remember, Tim told you that McNabb would be overworked because the Eagles don't have anything else besides him on offense. I fully expect Donovan to get knocked out for the season in the first two months (not that I would wish this on him, he's fun to watch). San Diego at Cincinnati Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR San Diego 58% 21% 5.6 123 45% 14% 7.2 131 Cincinnati 28% 0% 1.8 28 43% 3% 5.0 72 Gaa Goo Goo Gaa Gaa! My Bengals suck already. Cincy is supposed to be a run-focused offense, which means the 28% success rate, 0% big gains, and 1.8 yards per attempt is good news: NOT! Forget about this team, I should have stuck with my "Houston Texans forever" pledge. Drew Brees looked great by the way, but let's see him face a non-Cincinnati team. New Orleans at Tampa Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR New Orleans 42% 6% 3.0 62 37% 9% 5.6 84 Tampa Bay 52% 5% 3.4 71 41% 2% 4.4 77 Defenses dominated, despite the over total, and a few key plays were telling. Michael Pittman was nowhere to be seen as the fantasy stud some expected. Seattle at Oakland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Seattle 31% 0% 2.6 56 40% 0% 3.7 75 Oakland 57% 20% 5.5 110 54% 6% 6.5 116 Raiders showed no respect to Hasselbeck, stacking the line against the run and effectively shutting down old nemesis Alexander. Raiders have big beef on defense and with cagey vets on the offensive side look good, real good. Dilfer can't get back soon enough for Holmgren's crew. St. Louis at Denver Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR St. Louis 38% 8% 1.6 61 51% 11% 7.0 97 Denver 42% 12% 4.0 69 53% 6% 5.9 93 UNREAL! Broncos stuff the Faulk. Their own stats weren't great, but defense gets a gold star and Shanahan and his troops get the win. Dallas at Houston Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Dallas 45% 13% 6.4 108 30% 6% 3.3 51 Houston 22% 9% 2.4 28 25% 10% 5.5 61 It's ugly in Dallas and one more effort like that from Quincy Carter and we'll be seeing Chad Hutchinson in a jiffy. Don't get too excited about David Carr just yet: a 25% play success rate won't cut it long term. Think Dallas should have run the ball more and done less passing? Pittsburgh at New England Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Pittsburgh 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 New England 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ...we'll have to wait another day for the goods on this one. tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved