NFL TONIGHT
"And everythings cool in the mind of a gangsta
Cuz gangsta-ass niggas think deep
Up three-sixty-five a year 24/7
Cuz real gangsta ass niggas don't sleep"
-- Damn it Feels Good to be a Gangsta, Geto Boys
There's a school of thought regarding NFL handicapping that proclaims the path to success is
through single-minded dedication to reading every scrap of news that comes across the transom during the week.
The proponents of this style tend to be scruffy looking fellows with bags under their eyes from staying up all night in some hovel checking out web site after web site and newspaper after newspaper....
Chamberlain is listed as questionable for this week's game against the Bills due to a left knee injury. Head coach Mike Tice told the Minneapolis Star Tribune that he's not optimistic about Chamberlain's chances of playing this week. He left last Sunday's game against the Bears after his 61-yard second quarter reception with a sprained PCL.
There's an opposing school which says to ignore what everyone else is saying and focus on your own approach.
The followers of this religion tend to be sharp looking dudes who may also stay up late, but they are to be found around town hitting the bright lights of the big city.
You can probably guess which one I prefer!
It's a serious matter though: when is information too much information? When does your mind crumple up in confusion -- after the thirtieth story on Curtis Martin's playing status, or the eighteenth perspective on how Mike Shanahan's almost pulling Griese in week one will effect the Broncos chances, or after you fall in love with an angle that's 18-2 over the past five years only to find another angle pointing to the other team that's 12-1...
Coming down from my high horse I'll give the due to those who put in the time as a human newswire and make it work, particularly if they can get an edge in these early weeks when the numbers are likely to deceive, but it's not the lifestyle I would choose, and not the best way for me to approach the betting windows with confidence.
Cleveland: Well what on earth does that mean?
Chapman: *I* don't know - Mr Wentworth just told me to come in here and say that there was trouble at the mill, that's all - I didn't expect a kind of Spanish Inquisition.
(JARRING CHORD) (The door flies open and Cardinal Ximinez of Spain (Palin) enters, flanked by two junior cardinals. Cardinal Biggles (Jones) has goggles pushed over his forehead. Cardinal Fang (Gilliam) is just Cardinal Fang)
Ximinez: NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition! Our chief weapon is suprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise.... I'll come in again.
--The Spanish Inquisition Sketch, Monty Python
There are two things, no three things I believe in when it comes to the NFL, no wait there are four things I believe in when it comes to handicapping the NFL...
- Good stats: e.g. the Drive Chart numbers and Play-By-Play ratings the TwoMinuteWarning moles put together each week
- Smart application of the data: e.g. making a predicted score and looking for overlays against the line, the Ultimate Prediction Machine game simulations
- Turnovers: can be part of the basic stat analysis, but better considered as a separate entity with specific rules for using the fateful class of plays
- Motivation: let's not kid ourselves, some games don't mean as much to some teams
- Goofy fun stuff: e.g. the Horrible Defeat Syndrome
These are the tools in Tim's tool shed.
Those and sudden hunches that overtake me when I am still at the Craps table at 4 in the morning looking scruffy with bags under my eyes...
Oh yeah, the Teaser play of the week:
Oakland +9.5 with Detroit +9 with San Diego -7
'02 Teaser picks record: 0-1
