Monday, September 23rd 2002

THE WEEK THAT WAS Hot off the presses, here's the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week three of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following (and note the *NEW* stats score addition): PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Carolina at Minnesota Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Carolina 54% 15% 4.9 103 45% 15% 6.2 81 28 Minnesota 38% 11% 4.0 77 42% 9% 4.8 51 6 Stats Score has the Panthers winning this easy, so Minnesota were lucky it looked close. Lamar Smith (one of Tim's Fantasy Sleepers don't you know) sure looked good plowing through the middle of the Vikings defense. Call me crazy, but the Vikes look soft all round. Cleveland at Tennessee Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cleveland 55% 15% 4.7 95 50% 7% 5.9 98 32 Tennessee 32% 3% 2.2 41 44% 0% 4.2 80 7 Wild game in Tennessee (just like last year) had me happy at the end when doggie dog Browns pulled one out of the hat. Methinks Holcomb may be the better QB -- heresy! heresy! -- but what do I know. Amazing to see the stats score so one sided, but that's why turnovers are the great equalizer: Cleveland had FOUR and Tennessee had ZERO! Titans are in big do-do if they can't win at home when they have a +4 Turnover edge! Dallas at Philadelphia Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Dallas 50% 15% 4.7 88 37% 0% 4.2 62 8 Philadelphia 53% 12% 4.3 96 59% 11% 7.7 129 41 Yup, this was a massacre. Philadelphia has double the magic E.F.R rating in passing. Dallas are a bad team, which means their win over Tennessee puts Tenn down another notch too. I'm hearing it from the McNabb fans for saying he will be a fantasy bust in 2002, but listen: I don't say he's not a phenomenal fantango-matic player with huge stats, I'm just saying he's the ENTIRE TEAM and that puts him at risk for injury. Get back to me in a month if he's still healthy. Indianapolis at Houston Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Indianapolis 42% 8% 3.4 73 48% 15% 7.4 112 25 Houston 48% 6% 4.0 70 21% 0% 2.4 0 0 Not sure Houston can be considered an NFL team right now. You don't get nowhere in the NFL when you can't pass worth piss. Ugly ugly looming game against Philadelphia this week. If I was coach of the Texans I'd be scripting all kinds of trick plays and run non-stop gimmicks throughout the game. Kansas City at New England Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Kansas City 67% 24% 6.5 147 46% 4% 4.5 71 23 New England 47% 14% 4.6 109 50% 7% 6.3 111 36 Patriots were the dominant team as anyone who watched this knows. Priest Holmes is a stud and the show was a good one: Priest vs Brady. Best passing game wins though and Kansas City don't got it. New Orleans at Chicago Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New Orleans 39% 9% 2.7 69 44% 11% 6.3 102 19 Chicago 53% 3% 4.1 73 48% 9% 5.8 113 30 Here's a "score upset" as the stats say Chicago should have won by a nice margin. Turnovers don't explain it because New Orleans had three to Chicago's two. You might say timing of turnovers was the issue: game turned on a muffed kickoff that let New Orleans jump right back into the game. That and red zone scoring differences. New Orleans got into the red zone twice and got two touchdowns out of it. Chicago got in five times with just one touchdown, three field goals and an interception. Bears still can't get respect with the opening line this week having them as a field goal dog to Buffalo. N.Y. Jets at Miami Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Jets 40% 9% 2.4 50 44% 6% 4.8 50 3 Miami 51% 14% 5.9 102 43% 6% 5.7 115 35 Actual score 30-3, Stats Score 35-3. Either way Jets did not look like they could match-up with Miami. Dolphins got the 100+ E.F.R both rushing and passing and the quick story is that Ricky Williams is really working out in party-town USA. Tim is striking a pose (VOGUE) as we speak. Sadly my physique does not play well on the fashionista Miami beach scene. Buffalo at Denver Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Buffalo 53% 0% 1.9 73 50% 9% 5.2 106 23 Denver 62% 14% 5.3 100 45% 10% 4.6 95 28 Bling-bling-bling we have a winner! The stats score is identical to the actual score. Go figure. Travis Henry (another Tim sleeper) has not done much since the big opening week. Ooh but the Buffalo air show is prime time baby. Denver quietly moving back into Super Bowl contender role. San Diego at Arizona Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Diego 32% 12% 3.6 64 37% 3% 4.4 65 12 Arizona 38% 14% 4.1 66 31% 8% 5.2 57 11 You may be saying "12-11? whoever heard of a 12-11 score in the NFL? How'd they get eleven? Three fields and a safety? or what the heck, they had three on the board and went for the two point conversion just for laughs?" Yet Tim stands behind the computer's output on this one, because if you saw any of this game you would agree that it was just a mess with neither team threatening to do a whole lot on offense. Arizona had two long touchdown passes that accounted for all their points. San Diego got a score on an interception return and a safety. Either both these teams are better than I think or San Diego isn't as good as the 3-0 suggests. Green Bay at Detroit Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Green Bay 29% 6% 2.7 51 60% 13% 7.2 122 31 Detroit 57% 14% 4.4 90 39% 8% 5.3 50 6 Mauling of the Lions in Detroit according to the stats. If you backed the Packers you've got a legitimate grievance that they didn't get the cover. Without Ahman Green the Green Bay rushing sucked (and that's putting it politely) but when Favre is your QB you don't always need a ground game. Seattle at N.Y. Giants Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Seattle 41% 0% 2.4 47 40% 0% 3.8 40 0 N.Y. Giants 36% 9% 2.6 57 46% 10% 6.2 104 28 Another game where the wrong team covered, even if the right team won. Giants were losing the special teams/field position war while they were winning the battle of moving the football. Kerry Collins is an unsung hero and has put the G-Men back in the playoff hunt. Washington at San Francisco Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Washington 35% 18% 2.7 58 31% 3% 4.5 48 0 San Francisco 55% 21% 6.3 115 35% 0% 3.3 58 26 Whoa! Washington can't take much comfort in the stats score here: 26-0 San Fran and that's with half the Niner guys throwing up on the sideline with the stomach flu. Spurrier love-fest over already and signs point to the "Schottenheimer revenge" being the main tale to tell in D.C. Cincinnati at Atlanta Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cincinnati 52% 0% 3.6 73 22% 2% 2.8 31 0 Atlanta 61% 12% 4.2 91 34% 3% 5.6 96 31 Another week three blowout special. Bengals are the worst team in the league. Well, I suppose they might give Houston and Detroit a run for the money. Falcons won easily enough that the stats don't tell us how bad it could have been for Cincy. St. Louis at Tampa Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score St. Louis 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 n/a Tampa Bay 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 n/a This one plays tonight... tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved