Wednesday/Friday Double Edition, September 25th-27th

WEEK FOUR PICKS Just when you thought Tim was about to be KO'd from this lofty perch as muckety muck schmuck, my trusty sidekick came to the rescue with the hearty week three trends. Just as the Lone Ranger has Tonto, Batman has Robin, Wonder Woman has her lasso (tie me up baby!) and Wallace has Gromet...so too does Tim manage to escape cancellation (as they say in the network business) by virtue of his deferring to the genius that is Scott, former head research mole at TMW but now in engaged in a top secret project. Indeed the trends picks for week three were on the plus side of the column with a 4-3 record but more importantly the seven selections carried the day as a whopping great seven team teaser parlay. Now of course most places don't take seven team teasers, but hopefully you'all threw 'em around in combos of six (7-1 odds per pop!) To recap, the sage word of advice yours truly received when consulting the Oracle about how to play the early season was...TRENDS! Before that though, it's time for something completely different: Tim's all time favorite comedy scene: [battle sounds] [Black Knight defeats a worthless-piece-of-shit-knight] ARTHUR: You fight with the strength of many men, Sir knight. I am Arthur, King of the Britons. [pause] I seek the finest and the bravest knights in the land to join me in my Court of Camelot. [pause] You have proved yourself worthy; will you join me? [pause] You make me sad. So be it. Come, Patsy. BLACK KNIGHT: None shall pass. ARTHUR: What? BLACK KNIGHT: None shall pass. ARTHUR: I have no quarrel with you, good Sir knight, but I must cross this bridge. BLACK KNIGHT: Then you shall die. ARTHUR: I command you as King of the Britons to stand aside! BLACK KNIGHT: I move for no man. ARTHUR: So be it! [hah] [parry thrust] [ARTHUR chops the BLACK KNIGHT's left arm off] ARTHUR: Now stand aside, worthy adversary. BLACK KNIGHT: 'Tis but a scratch. ARTHUR: A scratch? Your arm's off! BLACK KNIGHT: No, it isn't. ARTHUR: Well, what's that then? BLACK KNIGHT: I've had worse. ARTHUR: You liar! BLACK KNIGHT: Come on you pansy! [hah] [parry thrust] [ARTHUR chops the BLACK KNIGHT's right arm off] ARTHUR: Victory is mine! [kneeling] We thank thee Lord, that in thy merc- [Black Knight kicks Arthur in the head while he is praying] BLACK KNIGHT: Come on then. ARTHUR: What? BLACK KNIGHT: Have at you! ARTHUR: You are indeed brave, Sir knight, but the fight is mine. BLACK KNIGHT: Oh, had enough, eh? ARTHUR: Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left. BLACK KNIGHT: Yes I have. ARTHUR: Look! BLACK KNIGHT: Just a flesh wound. [Headbutts Arthur in the chest] ARTHUR: Look, stop that. BLACK KNIGHT: Chicken! Chicken! ARTHUR: Look, I'll have your leg. Right! [whop] BLACK KNIGHT: Right, I'll do you for that! ARTHUR: You'll what? BLACK KNIGHT: Come 'ere! ARTHUR: What are you going to do, bleed on me? BLACK KNIGHT: I'm invincible! ARTHUR: You're a loony. BLACK KNIGHT: The Black Knight always triumphs! Have at you! Come on then. [whop] [ARTHUR chops the BLACK KNIGHT's other leg off] BLACK KNIGHT: All right; we'll call it a draw. ARTHUR: Come, Patsy. BLACK KNIGHT: Oh, oh, I see, running away then. You yellow bastards! Come back here and take what's coming to you. I'll bite your legs off! -- "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" ...if you can believe it, some people have suggested that Tim is a little, how shall we put it, verbose? Enough of that then. Here's the stats Scott laid out last season on the subject of week four trends: This week in the Trends column we'll be examining whether there are any specific conventional stat categories that have had strong predictive value in week four games. The following table lists various statistical factors and the results against the spread playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category. Note that this means that in something like "Points Allowed" the results are for playing the team with the most points allowed, not the team with the fewest points allowed as you would probably expect. In games where teams have equal stats, or one team had a week one bye, there is no play. Week 4 Stat Comparison results 1991-2000 (Results expressed as W-L vs the spread) Factor Home W-L Home W% Away W-L Away W% Total W-L Total W% Win % STD 20 - 20 50 % 24 - 17 58 % 44 - 37 54 % Win % Last Yr 23 - 32 41 % 27 - 22 55 % 50 - 54 48 % Win Last 9 - 12 42 % 20 - 12 62 % 29 - 24 54 % Win 2 Games Ago 13 - 15 46 % 19 - 10 65 % 32 - 25 56 % Spread % STD 18 - 23 43 % 27 - 19 58 % 45 - 42 51 % Spread % last Yr 21 - 26 44 % 29 - 22 56 % 50 - 48 51 % vs Spread last 12 - 14 46 % 19 - 13 59 % 31 - 27 53 % vs Spread 2 back 14 - 17 45 % 19 - 11 63 % 33 - 28 54 % Points for last 24 - 28 46 % 34 - 26 56 % 58 - 54 51 % Points Allowed last 24 - 32 42 % 32 - 28 53 % 56 - 60 48 % Net Pts STD 24 - 35 40 % 31 - 25 55 % 55 - 60 47 % Net Pts Last Yr 21 - 29 42 % 27 - 23 54 % 48 - 52 48 % Net Pts Last 20 - 33 37 % 33 - 29 53 % 53 - 62 46 % Net Pts 2 back 28 - 35 44 % 31 - 23 57 % 59 - 58 50 % Pts For STD 22 - 28 44 % 38 - 29 56 % 60 - 57 51 % Pts For Last Yr 20 - 28 41 % 31 - 23 57 % 51 - 51 50 % Pts Agn STD 20 - 31 39 % 33 - 30 52 % 53 - 61 46 % Pts Agn Last Yr 19 - 21 47 % 31 - 24 56 % 50 - 45 52 % Total Pts STD 22 - 31 41 % 34 - 30 53 % 56 - 61 47 % Total Pts Last Game 18 - 28 39 % 27 - 27 50 % 45 - 55 45 % Rush Yds STD 26 - 32 44 % 34 - 27 55 % 60 - 59 50 % Rush Yds Last Game 33 - 31 51 % 36 - 20 64 % 69 - 51 57 % Rush Yds 2 back 23 - 37 38 % 30 - 30 50 % 53 - 67 44 % Pass Yds STD 23 - 28 45 % 39 - 30 56 % 62 - 58 51 % Pass Yds Last game 16 - 35 31 % 32 - 37 46 % 48 - 72 40 % Pass Yds 2 back 29 - 28 50 % 39 - 24 61 % 68 - 52 56 % Rush Yds Agn STD 27 - 35 43 % 32 - 23 58 % 59 - 58 50 % Rush Yds Agn L Game 26 - 41 38 % 26 - 27 49 % 52 - 68 43 % Rush Yds Agn 2 back 24 - 26 48 % 40 - 28 58 % 64 - 54 54 % Pass Yds Agn STD 32 - 28 53 % 38 - 21 64 % 70 - 49 58 % Pass Yds Allowed Last Game 31 - 27 53 % 40 - 22 64 % 71 - 49 59 % Pass Yds Agn 2 Back 29 - 31 48 % 35 - 24 59 % 64 - 55 53 % Turnovers STD 25 - 30 45 % 31 - 23 57 % 56 - 53 51 % Turnovers L Game 24 - 29 45 % 26 - 16 61 % 50 - 45 52 % Forced Turnovers STD 26 - 28 48 % 30 - 21 58 % 56 - 49 53 % Forced Turnovers L Game 18 - 32 36 % 26 - 21 55 % 44 - 53 45 % Net T/O L Game 21 - 27 43 % 27 - 27 50 % 48 - 54 47 % Net T/O STD 22 - 29 43 % 33 - 28 54 % 55 - 57 49 % Penalties STD 30 - 36 45 % 27 - 20 57 % 57 - 56 50 % Penalties L Game 28 - 30 48 % 32 - 19 62 % 60 - 49 55 % Sacks OFF STD 28 - 32 46 % 32 - 21 60 % 60 - 53 53 % Sacks OFF L Game 24 - 23 51 % 36 - 22 62 % 60 - 45 57 % Sacks Def STD 33 - 31 51 % 28 - 20 58 % 61 - 51 54 % Sacks Def L Game 25 - 31 44 % 26 - 23 53 % 51 - 54 48 % Punts STD 28 - 27 50 % 34 - 19 64 % 62 - 46 57 % Punts L Game 23 - 24 48 % 31 - 16 65 % 54 - 40 57 % First Downs STD 19 - 30 38 % 29 - 27 51 % 48 - 57 45 % First Downs L Game 18 - 32 36 % 32 - 30 51 % 50 - 62 44 % First Downs Agn STD 24 - 24 50 % 36 - 22 62 % 60 - 46 56 % First Downs Agn L Game 25 - 37 40 % 30 - 24 55 % 55 - 61 47 % 3rd Down Conv STD 24 - 33 42 % 33 - 27 55 % 57 - 60 48 % 3rd Down Conv L Game 16 - 31 34 % 35 - 33 51 % 51 - 64 44 % 3rd Down Conv Agn STD 24 - 36 40 % 31 - 28 52 % 55 - 64 46 % 3rd Down Conv Agn L Game 26 - 32 44 % 33 - 26 55 % 59 - 58 50 % Time of Poss STD 27 - 32 45 % 34 - 25 57 % 61 - 57 51 % Time of Poss L Game 24 - 30 44 % 37 - 29 56 % 61 - 59 50 % 1st Qtr Net L Game 24 - 25 48 % 33 - 23 58 % 57 - 48 54 % 4th Qtr Net L Game 16 - 39 29 % 25 - 31 44 % 41 - 70 36 % This is what is known as a heavily skewed data sample. Evidently away teams have done very well historically in week four games and as a result most of the factors are positive for away teams and negative for home teams. For the data above the factors where total results were 57%+ are light green and the factors where total results were 42% or worse are dark green. In cases where there are two very similar and dependent factors, we have selected one for highlighting. The following list of factors represents those we view as having the most significant historical implications for this week's games: Postive Factors Rushing Yards last game Passing Yards Allowed last game Times sacked on offense last game Punts last game Negative (go against) Factors Passing Yards last game 4th Quarter Net Points last game It is completely within reason to argue with the inclusion of any of the above, and the omittal of other seemingly predictive factors, but we will concentrate on the six factors with reasonable total effectiveness. That then was Scott's take on the matter last season at this junction, and while I don't have the wherewithal to run the data above to include the 2001 season ("if I only had a brain") we can assume it all did well enough as the qualifying picks were 2-0 in week four last season. The away teams were just 5-9 all told last year which went against the general pattern. I will simply plug in the matchups this week against the program the big S Man wrote to calculate who's ahead in which department and this is what we get: Match-Up Line (Home) Nine Factor Scorecard Trend Pick Carolina at Green Bay -7 Carolina 5-1 Carolina Chicago at Buffalo -3 Chicago 4-2 Cleveland at Pittsburgh -6 Pittsburgh 4-2 Dallas at St. Louis OFF Dallas 3-2 Houston at Philadelphia -20.5 Houston 5-1 Houston Miami at Kansas City +3 Kansas City 5-0 Kansas City New Orleans at Detroit +7 Detroit 3-1 Detroit N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville -3 N.Y. Jets 4-2 N.Y. Giants at Arizona +3 Arizona 4-0 Arizona Tampa Bay at Cincinnati +7 Cincinnati 4-1 Cincinnati New England at San Diego +3 San Diego 3-2 Tennessee at Oakland -6.5 Tennessee 4-2 Minnesota at Seattle -3 Minnesota 3-2 Denver at Baltimore +7.5 Tied 3-3 ANALYSIS: Scott used a 3-1 ratio or better to qualify as a play and I ain't rocking the boat. The six teams (gulp, if you can call them that since we have such lovelies as Houston, Detroit and Cincinnati in the mix) are duly recorded as WIN-O-RAMA picks. Last week I was supremely confident the trend picks would be money makers. This week not so confident. Good news is that starting with next week's games we can forego all the usual gnashing of teeth and just rely on such goodies as the TwoMinuteWarning UPM and overlays. Last Week: 4-3 with spread bets, and 7-0 with the teaser picks!!!! that's right 7-0 buddy, when was the last time YOU hit a seven teamer? On another note, "guest handicapper" Wunderdog who also shares space on the TMW pages is off to a hot start...see his perhaps more serious analysis at Wunderdog's column tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved