Monday, September 30th

THE WEEK THAT WAS Hot off the presses, here's the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week four of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Carolina at Green Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Carolina 45% 14% 4.0 85 32% 13% 6.8 83 22 Green Bay 36% 18% 4.0 68 37% 8% 4.9 70 13 Carolina should have won according to the numbers so maybe this Panthers team is for real. The defense certainly is! Green Bay was fortunate to grab all those fumbles, but as my buddy Forrest used to say, "Fortunate is as Fortunate does." Chicago at Buffalo Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Chicago 24% 0% 2.1 28 52% 12% 6.5 117 13 Buffalo 40% 16% 4.2 76 60% 11% 8.0 152 46 Ouch! Chicago got spanked by the stats. Mainly because they couldn't run the ball and couldn't stop Bledsoe from hucking the ball downfield to Price or Moulds or Henry or Centers or Riemersma (you try spelling that right) or Moore or... Cleveland at Pittsburgh Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cleveland 38% 8% 3.9 57 34% 3% 3.6 37 0 Pittsburgh 38% 0% 2.2 50 52% 7% 6.6 107 29 Another close game where the stats suggest otherwise. Who will start this week for Pittsburgh in the Kordell Stewart documentary. Dallas at St. Louis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Dallas 35% 21% 4.0 71 41% 3% 4.6 61 3 St. Louis 40% 20% 4.6 75 50% 14% 6.2 102 31 Hello, hello...what's all this then? St. Louis should have won 31-3 but instead LOST 13-10 to fall to 0-4!! Rams passing data still decent even without Warner [critics would say it improved!] Houston at Philadelphia Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Houston 29% 0% 3.7 37 36% 8% 3.6 50 0 Philadelphia 60% 11% 3.6 107 40% 6% 5.8 83 30 Yawn! Only fun moment of this game was the fake punt for a score pulled off by Philadelphia. That was mean in that no one in the world would expect it, but devilishly delicious as a result. Houston still to be taken lightly by all teams except Dallas. Miami at Kansas City Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Miami 61% 22% 5.7 133 44% 8% 6.1 79 19 Kansas City 27% 9% 3.6 51 57% 14% 9.4 171 48 No doubt here the right team won. Priest Holmes subdued, but turn up the volume Trent Green! Miami may have walked into an ambush with New England on their minds. New Orleans at Detroit Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New Orleans 62% 31% 6.8 137 46% 6% 5.1 88 34 Detroit 25% 11% 3.2 40 41% 11% 7.1 105 15 Can't believe the Saints lost to the Lions and neither can the stats. Of course three turnovers to zip will do a lot of upheaval in the final score department. Saints fell behind 20-0 and veered away from running the ball a whole lot, which would have been the way to go. N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Jets 33% 13% 3.2 50 42% 13% 6.6 100 13 Jacksonville 64% 19% 6.0 137 50% 6% 8.8 122 46 Yuk, Yuk, Yuk, Yuck. Jets have now failed to be within three touchdowns of their opposition for three straight games. Defense cannot stop anyone. Heck, Houston could probably get thirty off them. Brutal year looking likely in New Yawk. N.Y. Giants at Arizona Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Giants 41% 6% 2.7 58 39% 5% 4.1 70 8 Arizona 32% 9% 3.0 61 47% 6% 5.2 91 23 Jake the snake back in action man form leading another fourth quarter win. Giants very flat and on heels of 9-6 win over Seattle casts doubt on offensive talent. Tampa Bay at Cincinnati Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tampa Bay 46% 14% 3.5 71 45% 12% 7.6 96 25 Cincinnati 41% 0% 2.5 41 16% 3% 2.2 30 0 Yes the Bengals are bad. Should have known once they pulled the Akili Smith panic button that another massacre was coming. Have to believe if the Cincinnati GM sees the 16% play success rate passing that Akili will not walk on the field again (unless he develops skills as a holder for field goal attempts). Don't be fooled, Tampa offense was no great shakes. New England at San Diego Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New England 52% 9% 3.7 100 56% 4% 5.7 96 25 San Diego 62% 22% 7.5 134 33% 6% 5.7 77 28 Most meaningful game of the week perhaps. San Diego ran Tomlinson down the Pats throat and New England never found an answer. Brady-mania derailed temporarily. Tennessee at Oakland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tennessee 62% 0% 2.6 106 54% 14% 8.0 104 21 Oakland 68% 11% 4.8 115 60% 7% 8.7 155 54 When a team hits a 60%+ play success rate for both rushing and passing then they are likely to score oh, 50 points or so. Note it wasn't a ton of big plays, just steady eating up of yardage. That and two punt returns for touchdowns, bundles of turnovers, ... Minnesota at Seattle Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Minnesota 71% 22% 5.8 140 44% 2% 3.5 59 15 Seattle 50% 23% 5.6 130 35% 11% 7.9 103 40 Minnesota meltdown is complete. Only place to go from here is up the half full optimist will speak. Only thing possible to forecast is continuation of the humilation says the half empty pessimist. Denver at Baltimore Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Denver 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ?? Baltimore 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ?? These guys play tonight... tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved