Tuesday, October 8th

THE WEEK THAT WAS Hot off the presses, here's the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week five of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Arizona at Carolina Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Arizona 16% 6% 2.2 22 41% 2% 5.2 100 17 Carolina 30% 0% 2.4 39 37% 8% 5.4 70 8 Neither team could run the ball worth a lick. Arizona at least had the excuse of their top two running backs being out, but as for why Carolina couldn't get Lamar Smith rolling I am stumped. Either Arizona's defense is under-rated or Carolina's magical run may be losing steam rapidly as opponents clamp down on the ground game and dare Peete to beat them. Cincinnati at Indianapolis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cincinnati 56% 12% 6.5 104 50% 7% 6.1 89 23 Indianapolis 37% 13% 3.6 79 45% 9% 7.3 108 28 Bengals finally got a cover, and padded the stats to make it look respectable. I say against a coach less apt to just run out the clock, the numbers might have been more ugly. New England at Miami Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New England 37% 6% 2.3 43 41% 14% 5.9 88 8 Miami 32% 5% 3.2 53 50% 4% 6.5 121 33 No doubt who was the better team in this one. Miami creating a formidable home field advantage, but have to prove they can also do it on the road. New England,as befits the Super Bowl champ, gets another toughie this week with Green Bay coming to town and need to get back on track -- pronto! N.Y. Giants at Dallas Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Giants 43% 13% 4.6 91 54% 10% 7.2 116 35 Dallas 32% 16% 4.0 60 41% 7% 5.9 95 16 Giants much the better team by the stats, but a minus two number on turnover difference for the game meant the score was closer than it should have been. Emmitt rushing to the record, but not in spectacular fashion -- a 32% play success rate is not good. Oakland at Buffalo Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Oakland 57% 10% 5.4 123 51% 17% 8.6 139 47 Buffalo 44% 17% 4.4 105 47% 10% 7.0 103 24 Yup, Oakland's offense is a bona fide force. Even the "let it fly" Bills couldn't keep pace with the unending veteran brigade of the Raiders. Oakland vs Tampa Bay Super Bowl anyone? Pittsburgh at New Orleans Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Pittsburgh 57% 19% 4.6 100 45% 11% 5.3 93 21 New Orleans 50% 12% 4.2 88 50% 12% 7.5 126 38 Steelers outclassed by the Saints, but frustrated players getting down late in the week on New Orleans with a inside the Two Minute Warning touchdown and two point conversion. Let me tell you, Brooks is worth the money New Orleans fans, and you should be glad they got the contract snafu worked out. Tampa Bay at Atlanta Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tampa Bay 46% 4% 2.8 65 50% 6% 7.8 102 25 Atlanta 28% 10% 3.2 52 27% 2% 4.0 27 0 A little unfair to focus on the numbers for this...once Michael Vick was knocked out the Falcons were too. Doug Johnson not NFL quality as a starting quarterback, but Atlanta's season is in danger of becoming "wait until next year" quickly if Vick is out for long. Tampa needs to have the rushing game going better when they meet opponents who offer more of a challenge down the line. Washington at Tennessee Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Washington 51% 21% 5.4 106 40% 13% 6.5 110 36 Tennessee 50% 19% 3.6 93 41% 2% 5.0 58 9 Spurrier shows he can put the bye week to good use! Thashing of Titans aided in part by Danny Wuerrfel getting dinged and rookie Ramsey getting a shot. He may not look back. A nice balance between the rush and pass (both over 100 EFR) and Tennessee meanwhile is in disarray. Kansas City at N.Y. Jets Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Kansas City 63% 23% 6.5 126 55% 8% 7.4 116 36 N.Y. Jets 46% 15% 5.3 100 60% 9% 6.6 124 35 Stats don't line, this was a wild one. Wrong team "covered" according to the numbers, but Jets better continue to worry about their defense as they can't stop anything! 63% Rushing PSR, 55% PSR allowed will mean mucho points given up and a very bad record indeed. On the other side, a little dee in Kansas City would make for a solid, playoff team. San Diego at Denver Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Diego 38% 22% 4.3 94 51% 7% 6.2 88 24 Denver 53% 3% 3.3 70 48% 5% 7.1 89 19 Well, what have we here? The statistics say it should have been the Chargers remaining undefeated when they were in fact outscored 26-9? What could possibly account for that (he muses knowingly)? Why that double whammy of mistaken outcomes, turnovers and special teams! It was only a 3 to 1 deficit in the turnover department, but one pick was returned for a touchdown and all were decidedly inconvenient. Special teams featured a blocked punt. Don't jump off the bandwagon San Diego fans. Philadelphia at Jacksonville Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Philadelphia 70% 16% 6.0 135 40% 2% 3.6 79 25 Jacksonville 33% 4% 2.5 51 50% 12% 7.3 126 28 Bing! Bing! Bing! We have a winner. The stats predict the final score exactamundo. This was the battle royale of opposites as it turns out. Jacksonville could pass effectively but not run, Philadelphia could run amok but couldn't pass. As usual in the NFL, the better passing team won. St. Louis at San Francisco Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score St. Louis 41% 4% 3.6 66 34% 7% 5.0 67 10 San Francisco 57% 15% 6.9 130 51% 7% 7.1 131 43 Who would have thunk? St. Louis dropping to 0-5 with no end in sight. When the mighty fall, they fall violently and fast. Season win bet players are already holding a winning ticket if you got the Rams at the 11 1/2 wins line and played under. Baltimore at Cleveland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Baltimore 41% 15% 5.9 82 49% 16% 8.4 124 36 Cleveland 47% 6% 2.8 58 46% 11% 6.8 74 9 Old Timmy was all over this game and the Ravens didn't disappoint, taking a 23-0 lead into the fourth quarter. Who is laughing at Baltimore now? People who said they would be the worst team in the league have a reckoning coming! Green Bay at Chicago Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Green Bay 36% 7% 4.1 60 54% 11% 9.4 145 40 Chicago 47% 0% 2.0 58 46% 11% 6.2 92 13 Packers manhandled the injured Bears. Methinks the NFC "North" (still can't get used to that) division winner is a foregone conclusion. tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved