Monday, October 14th

THE WEEK THAT WAS Hot off the presses, here's the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week six of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Atlanta at N.Y. Giants Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Atlanta 37% 4% 2.7 62 59% 11% 9.1 129 33 N.Y. Giants 46% 15% 4.3 84 48% 0% 5.6 85 18 Atlanta's passing game did just fine without Vick. Giants zero big plays through the air stands out. Baltimore at Indianapolis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Baltimore 50% 8% 4.0 76 30% 6% 4.2 54 6 Indianapolis 36% 5% 2.1 47 41% 6% 5.9 87 19 Went down to the wire in the actual game, but the numbers say Indy should have had this wrapped up long before. Neither offense posted shining stats and when is Edge going to bust out with the huge game? Buffalo at Houston Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Buffalo 62% 19% 4.8 112 48% 13% 5.3 110 37 Houston 32% 14% 4.4 67 32% 10% 6.3 90 14 Stats for this one have the Bills rolling when in reality they had to come from behind against a well prepared Houston side. Houston play success rates still way low, and will need to improve dramatically if they expect to be competitive on the road. Carolina at Dallas Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Carolina 36% 0% 2.6 41 46% 13% 6.2 116 26 Dallas 52% 26% 6.0 100 31% 5% 4.0 51 11 Alert! Alert! The wrong team won. Well, we all knew that already. Carolina had this game all the way until a fluke tipped pass turned into an eighty yard touchdown. Dallas then struck again for another touchdown inside a minute to go (after a fumble recovered by Carolina was over-ruled by the officials in the replay booth). Hate to see that, although Panthers still got the cover. Here's an important consideration: I've been tracking games where the "wrong team won" according to the play by play stats, and so far teams involved in such a game are just 1-8 against the line the next week, regardless of whether they were the "wronged" or the "righted"... Detroit at Minnesota Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Detroit 21% 11% 1.7 26 48% 16% 7.3 120 13 Minnesota 62% 8% 4.2 108 56% 5% 7.8 135 46 Ouch! The predicted score has Minnesota in a landslide with 100+ Effectiveness both rushing and passing. Detroit obviously needs to do something about that rushing attack, but Harrington could be the real deal. Green Bay at New England Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Green Bay 47% 11% 4.3 83 58% 6% 6.4 135 36 New England 54% 17% 4.7 104 36% 2% 3.5 40 9 Smack! Super Bowl Champions? Smack! Packers last two weeks have started to look like the team everyone was talking about in preseason: i.e. NFC's Super Bowl rep. Favre is the best in the business once again. Jacksonville at Tennessee Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Jacksonville 34% 15% 4.7 76 31% 6% 4.9 25 0 Tennessee 52% 3% 3.5 71 51% 3% 5.4 105 30 Brunell gets knocked out and Jacksonville fall to pieces. Only let backup QB Garrard throw seven passes and two of them were intercepted. This is one injury you better keep tabs on because no team can win in the NFL without at least a threat of being able to pass the ball. Titans may have saved coach Fisher's job as they head into the bye. New Orleans at Washington Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New Orleans 25% 10% 3.8 54 36% 13% 5.7 73 10 Washington 47% 6% 3.1 100 36% 8% 5.2 53 17 Another wrong team winning! Somehow this prediction evades my understanding though: Washington had four passes intercepted and two more that were called back because of penalties!!! That and two return touchdowns by New Orleans' Lewis were what turned the stats upside down. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Pittsburgh 43% 14% 4.0 75 51% 15% 7.4 92 24 Cincinnati 56% 9% 3.1 86 48% 2% 4.6 53 9 Yawn! Another season of Bumbling Bengals. Only sideplot here is how soon Kitna ("QB for the rest of the season") gets benched and how soon the coach is fired -- with the bye coming up I'm thinking both happen within twenty-four hours. Oops! News story: LeBeau meets as usual with GM Brown this morning and still has the job...guess that's why they are the Bengals after all. What would Cincinnati have to do to get their coach and preferably GM fired? I mean they are 0-6, have scored more than 7 points in a game only once, have given up 30+ in four of six. Ah, I digress. Cleveland at Tampa Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cleveland 31% 5% 2.3 42 27% 5% 3.2 37 0 Tampa Bay 52% 16% 5.1 105 39% 9% 5.5 72 28 Buc-O's looking dominant against lesser teams, but get good test coming up against Philadelphia in Philly. Cleveland a mess with Couch taking the snaps, need to admit that Holcomb's the better player and hope he can come back soon. Kansas City at San Diego Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Kansas City 36% 7% 2.6 50 56% 10% 7.7 133 22 San Diego 67% 25% 5.4 142 52% 12% 7.4 116 45 Wild one in San Diego that could have gone either way. Stats think it should have been an easy win for the Chargers but must not give enough weight to three lost fumbles that kept Kansas City alive. Oakland at St. Louis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Oakland 53% 13% 4.3 93 48% 8% 5.6 78 15 St. Louis 50% 17% 5.3 100 42% 4% 6.1 100 32 Right on target with the Rams doing the "triple-triple" by getting 100+ EFR's both rushing and passing. Raiders will be all right, this game was just a total setup. Miami at Denver Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Miami 45% 9% 3.0 72 53% 9% 6.0 96 18 Denver 55% 7% 3.7 85 50% 8% 6.0 103 29 Wrong team won case #3 for the week as Miami kicked a long field goal to win as the seconds were winding down. Is it just me or are football fans getting real fickle? Since when do you boo your starting quarterback with a team that is 4-1 and still in the game?? Both these teams make the playoffs in my book. San Francisco at Seattle Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Francisco 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ?? Seattle 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ?? These guys play tonight... tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved