Monday, October 21st

THE WEEK THAT WAS Hot off the presses, here's the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week seven of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Buffalo at Miami Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Buffalo 30% 15% 5.0 76 32% 3% 3.6 55 17 Miami 52% 6% 3.5 82 29% 11% 3.6 27 6 No argument here. Watched this one and Buffalo was the better team. Who knew that Jay Fiedler meant so much to Miami? Carolina at Atlanta Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Carolina 42% 14% 4.4 76 23% 10% 3.4 40 3 Atlanta 47% 15% 3.9 97 51% 10% 5.7 103 34 Who knew that Rodney Peete meant so much to Carolina? Michael Vick meanwhile is a stud, star, superstar, bona fide NFL threat in the model of Donovan McNabb (but better). Chicago at Detroit Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Chicago 46% 7% 3.0 76 46% 10% 4.6 86 16 Detroit 52% 18% 4.8 105 32% 6% 4.9 82 27 Bears not looking like a 13-3 team this season...given that their record is now 2-4. Don't look like a playoff team for that matter either. One season fluke, one-hit wonder. Detroit may surprise a few more teams this season (but why oh why couldn't they hold on last week against Minnesota?) Denver at Kansas City Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Denver 58% 14% 4.1 110 51% 12% 7.4 113 32 Kansas City 81% 13% 4.7 156 37% 3% 3.8 75 29 Priest Holmes unstoppable. Stick the KC offense with a halfway decent defense and they would be Super Bowl caliber. As it stands, they'll be in more of these here shootouts. Over-Under Line on this week's game with the Raiders...60? AFC West is the best entertainment value in the NFL right now. Jacksonville at Baltimore Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Jacksonville 46% 20% 5.7 96 35% 4% 4.5 58 11 Baltimore 53% 9% 3.7 68 35% 6% 4.7 87 22 Ravens are 3-3...yes, they laughed at me when I said Baltimore had a shot at winning the division (Tim's Division Picks) but they ain't laughing now. Defense can still win games in the NFL, even in this year's super-scoring video game mode. Minnesota at N.Y. Jets Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Minnesota 47% 4% 4.3 78 63% 8% 7.5 121 22 N.Y. Jets 24% 10% 3.1 48 69% 21% 9.7 181 49 Minnesota downright awful. Worst "heart" team in the league. That Pennington kid of the Jets may be a keeper. Seattle at St. Louis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Seattle 37% 6% 3.1 50 30% 6% 7.0 66 3 St. Louis 71% 16% 5.6 136 40% 10% 6.1 95 37 From 0-5 to the playoffs? Could happen, but still a long way to go for the Rams. Get a bye next and then it will be interesting to see the line on their game in week nine - away at Arizona I'm thinking they'll be more than a field goal road favorite. Seattle is toast now. Say good-bye to Mr. Holmgren. San Francisco at New Orleans Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Francisco 61% 12% 5.1 115 53% 5% 7.0 123 36 New Orleans 37% 22% 6.6 103 50% 5% 6.5 120 33 Alert! Alert! The WRONG TEAM WON. 49ers gave this away in the fourth quarter, more power to the Saints. So far this year team's that won when according to the stats they should have lost are 0-6-1 against the spread the next week. Bad news for the Saints then facing Atlanta. Teams that "won" in the stats but lost in the real score are just 3-5 so no upside to be had from a moral victory. Tampa Bay at Philadelphia Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tampa Bay 42% 5% 3.8 76 37% 0% 2.9 42 3 Philadelphia 51% 10% 5.1 96 32% 7% 4.2 64 23 The more things change the more they stay the same. Let's just write it in with a permanent ink marker: the Eagles have the Buccaneers' number. Gruden, Schmuden. Bucs have to hope someone else takes care of Philly come playoff time. Houston at Cleveland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Houston 19% 19% 4.5 52 40% 17% 5.9 93 17 Cleveland 37% 4% 3.7 79 37% 6% 4.1 71 16 BING BING! Wrong Team Won! Hard to believe given the 34-17 actual score. Yet dem's the facts. Go against Cleveland this week facing the Jets if you follow the "wrong win payback" theory. Houston still not a competitive NFL team yet. At least they are trying! San Diego at Oakland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Diego 43% 22% 4.2 87 50% 7% 6.2 117 25 Oakland 41% 8% 3.0 75 69% 11% 7.8 150 42 WRONG TEAM WON! ALARM! Turnovers the story for this one. Raiders passed the ball extremely well...except when it was being picked off. More nastiness ahead for both these teams. Boy the AFC West is fun! Did I mention that yet? Dallas at Arizona Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Dallas 52% 12% 4.3 79 36% 8% 7.7 44 0 Arizona 44% 13% 4.0 76 45% 8% 5.1 104 33 This game went to overtime. Shouldn't have according to the stats which have it as a total wipeout. Don't look now but the Cards are 4-2. Are they this year's Bears? Dallas passing game an all or nothing affair. Great yards per play, lots of turnovers and big play mistakes. Washington at Green Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Washington 50% 11% 3.2 86 31% 3% 3.0 51 3 Green Bay 37% 13% 3.6 95 50% 9% 6.0 108 37 Yawn! Steve Spurrier enters the league with much hype. Leaves quickly and quietly with tail between his legs. Couldn't happen to a more deserving fellow. Run up the score boys, run up the score. Indianapolis at Pittsburgh Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Indianapolis 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ? Pittsburgh 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ? Tonight. tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved