Monday, November 4th

THE WEEK THAT WAS Hot off the presses, here's the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week nine of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Baltimore at Atlanta Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Baltimore 48% 12% 4.8 88 32% 5% 4.5 51 10 Atlanta 38% 9% 3.7 64 33% 7% 4.2 70 15 A grind it out win for Atlanta. Sometimes it's a sign of a good team that they win with only so-so stats. Offense will need to better this week versus Pittsburgh. Cincinnati at Houston Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cincinnati 54% 6% 3.6 91 70% 7% 9.7 199 51 Houston 40% 4% 3.2 60 51% 10% 6.4 102 24 Bengals Win! Bengals Win! Ticket-tape parade already being planned. Jon Kitna showed why some people think he and Brett Favre are twins. Okay, I made that up. Nice to see Cincinnati finally get in the win column. Dallas at Detroit Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Dallas 37% 7% 2.6 44 36% 5% 3.7 70 24 Detroit 26% 0% 2.2 30 27% 0% 1.6 27 0 The WRONG TEAM WON! Dallas played better in all essential statistical departments except the one that counts: points. Neither team likely to scare "under" players at this rate. Minnesota at Tampa Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Minnesota 56% 9% 7.5 121 35% 14% 4.9 64 17 Tampa Bay 25% 10% 3.9 54 69% 6% 9.7 196 50 Another of the three off-the-charts passing numbers in Tampa as Gruden-ball finally unleashed on the hapless Vikings. Minnesota ran the ball okay...sure, you're thirty points behind, we'll let you run the ball! New England at Buffalo Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New England 47% 6% 3.3 67 70% 13% 11.0 196 54 Buffalo 53% 31% 5.0 130 47% 6% 5.0 101 27 Last week's conventional wisdom was that Bledsoe was the man. This week's conventional wisdom is that Tom Brady is the man. It's wide open in the NFL, but geez, didn't see this kind of pummeling in store for Buffalo. Philadelphia at Chicago Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Philadelphia 41% 6% 3.2 63 46% 10% 6.0 87 14 Chicago 60% 4% 3.2 91 45% 5% 4.4 88 27 WRONG TEAM WON! Chicago was robbed, so say the stats. A 60% rushing play success rate should have led to more points than it did, but ah, there's that Philadelphia red zone defense kicking in. An off day for the Eagles offense, back on track this week at home. Pittsburgh at Cleveland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Pittsburgh 30% 10% 3.0 52 40% 7% 4.9 70 20 Cleveland 25% 8% 3.0 33 31% 6% 4.3 46 3 Steelers the better team. Tim calls out to Cleveland management: Holcomb is the better QB choice! Lack of running game also doesn't help the Browns any. Many teams probably wish they were in the AFC North. Tennessee at Indianapolis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tennessee 48% 10% 3.9 79 36% 0% 2.8 64 6 Indianapolis 52% 16% 4.2 94 50% 4% 5.7 98 33 WRONG TEAM WON! And in a big way by the numbers outlook. Did the numbers watch the same game I did? Yeah the Titans didn't bother to throw the ball much, just sitting on it and running the clock. When a team is up 23-0 that tends to happen! This falls into the deceptive statistics category. N.Y. Jets at San Diego Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Jets 46% 20% 5.2 96 50% 5% 6.2 112 35 San Diego 35% 24% 3.1 70 38% 3% 5.0 63 8 Jets crushed the Chargers and oh what a reckoning is on the way to San Diego. Off a bye and completely asleep for the first half. Come'on Marty, get the troops ready for crying out loud! Might give some credit to Pennington for getting New York's passing game going (at the same time that Curtis Martin came back from injuries). San Francisco at Oakland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Francisco 47% 10% 2.9 79 52% 8% 7.5 121 31 Oakland 31% 18% 3.2 72 50% 7% 6.0 103 22 49ers best in the bay area. Raiders falling apart and it's a rough road to the playoffs now. From 4-0 to 4-4 in the blink of an eye. St. Louis at Arizona Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score St. Louis 58% 25% 5.3 113 50% 9% 7.1 103 35 Arizona 42% 11% 3.3 73 42% 6% 4.3 62 8 Rams dominant and may well be a playoff factor, who would have thunk it. Marshall proving he isn't just Warner's sidekick. Cardinals quickly earning "pretender" moniker after back to back big game blowouts. Washington at Seattle Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Washington 57% 18% 5.2 110 33% 0% 4.1 70 20 Seattle 48% 4% 3.3 72 40% 6% 4.8 88 21 WRONG TEAM WON! But both these teams have that "road to nowhere" feeling going on. Holmgren has to be on the way out in Seattle. Emotionless, flat as a pancake group. Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Jacksonville 50% 20% 5.8 115 30% 7% 4.8 71 15 N.Y. Giants 60% 9% 5.0 117 60% 6% 6.3 137 48 Giants get back to .500 thanks to a balanced offensive attack with triple digit effectiveness both running and passing. Jacksonville plummeting like a rock. Miami at Green Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Miami 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ? Green Bay 0% 0% 0.0 0 0% 0% 0.0 0 ? Tonight. Should be fun. tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved