Season Win Picks

So it's July, what are you going to wager on football-wise at this time of year? Well, casting aside the possibility of breaking down the Arena Football playoff matchups, that leaves the best option as some NFL futures analysis.

Yes I know, it may seem hard to tie up your money from now until January, but let me roll out to you my "social security privatization plan" that I believe goes head-to-head with George Bush's idea quite nicely. My deal is this, rather than invest your hard earned retirement dough in something shaky like the stock market, why not just every year roll it over into NFL season win bets? Let's break down the pro's and con's of this debate:

If you're like 73% of the two adults we polled, at this stage you are convinced and thinking "Tim where do I send my money?"

Fortunately we are in the process of setting up the "NFL Futures Hedge Fund" (most likely based in Bermuda) but unfortunately the US Government has yet to agree to the handing over of social security monies to us. Still in my generosity towards supporting public interest, I will lay out the plan for you right here.

First off start by calculating your total investment money for this venture. So in my case, it's $753, but if you are putting in more or less than this number simply adjust by the ratio (i.e. if you are good for $1,000 then a $110 bet for me should be $146.08 for you -- sports ticket writers love this kind of thing).

Now simply follow my recommendations to the letter and if past returns continue to hold true, then you should be able to eat all over Vegas on the cheap.

The TwoMinuteWarning.com guys have huge quantities of research on the subject of NFL season win picks, but since the articles are in the subscriber area I'm not allowed to divulge to you that they include such things as:

• historical percentages at each prior year win number (i.e. teams with 10 wins the previous season have only won 10 or more the next 40% of the time)
• the results at each line level (i.e. teams facing a season win line of 9.5 or more have gone under 29/42 for 69%)
• a comparison between the season win line set on the games and a team's prior year wins (i.e. if the season win line is 3 or more games BELOW a team's previous wins, those teams have gone under 5 of 6 with one push!)
• a "bounce effect" analysis (i.e. teams that win 3 more games the prior season than two seasons ago are 13-2 as under plays with lines of 10+ wins)
• significance of Draft picks (i.e. a team without a first round draft pick has gone under 16/22 for 73%)

Baltimore OVER 7.5 wins --> teams with 10 prior year wins have got to eight wins 72% of the time Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins --> teams facing 10.5 season win lines are 14-2 as Under bets St. Louis UNDER 11 wins --> line is 3 wins lower than their 14 wins in '01, historically a 5-0-1 under pick San Francisco UNDER 10 wins --> Niners improved by four wins in '01, bounce effect a 13-2 under Miami UNDER 9.5 wins --> Ricky this, Ricky that...if Ricky's injured it's Fiedler time!!

All picks get 20% of the retirement plan dough -- here at NFL Hedge Funds we believe in an all-in style of investing. Of course, I don't actually plan on retiring.

Good luck to us all!