Monday/Wednesday/Friday Edition, November 12th-16th

THE WEEK THAT WAS / WEEK ELEVEN PICKS So it started out with a plan that Old Timmy would write three mighty scholarly works per week. Somewhere along the line that dropped to two fantastically brilliant exposes per week. Now it's a test run of just one Tim edition per week. Only one thing left to try after this...no Tim at all! (and think how much worse your life would be if that happens) Ah, but I'm getting ahead of myself. First it's hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week ten of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Atlanta at Pittsburgh Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Atlanta 50% 13% 5.2 103 37% 12% 4.7 76 13 Pittsburgh 48% 10% 4.0 74 51% 21% 9.9 151 46 Wait a minute, this game ended in a tie?? How can that be when the Steelers had an unbelievable 151 passing effectiveness and almost 10 yards per play! Stats say this one shouldn't have been close. Cincinnati at Baltimore Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cincinnati 50% 7% 4.3 75 50% 2% 5.6 79 11 Baltimore 62% 14% 5.6 127 57% 8% 6.2 119 44 Bengals win! Bengals win! Get off the zero spot finally beating the expansionite Yexans (and I do mean Yexans). Next stop: creamsville! Predictable for us longtimer Cincy fans. Where's Boomer Esiason when you need him? All right, all right, I will acknowledge that the Ravens had triple digit EFR's both rushing and passing. Detroit at Green Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Detroit 64% 12% 7.4 105 28% 4% 5.0 57 10 Green Bay 44% 12% 4.4 82 55% 11% 7.6 142 43 Er, yes. Green Bay is a much better team than Detroit. Houston at Tennessee Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Houston 26% 9% 2.2 30 34% 5% 3.2 51 0 Tennessee 40% 11% 3.8 75 36% 9% 4.4 68 25 Houston are not yet competitive with the NFL as a whole. Heck any team that loses to Cincinnati 38-3 has a lot of areas that need work. Tennessee meanwhile, on the heels of Cincinnati's famous "slipgate" woes, has come back to look worthy of a playoff spot, if only as the weak AFC South representative. Indianapolis at Philadelphia Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Indianapolis 31% 9% 3.6 51 60% 17% 13.8 204 50 Philadelphia 50% 27% 5.0 104 40% 6% 4.8 88 23 So there I was, traveling down the road to the Super Bowl, when WHOOMP! I got flattened by a Peyton Manning - Marvin Harrison express train. So says Andy Reid of the Eagles. Will be interesting to see if Jake Plummer and company can put the hurt on the Eagles the way Indianapolis did. Must be said that a 204 Passing Effectiveness is I believe the highest of the year for a complete game. Er, Philly, you might want to watch you back when you have to face St. Louis, Green Bay or even San Fran in the playoffs... New Orleans at Carolina Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New Orleans 40% 8% 3.8 76 47% 10% 6.1 104 26 Carolina 33% 7% 3.7 48 40% 16% 6.3 100 17 So after all the bickering about how the Carolina backers had the supreme bad beat last week, the cold hard facts are that the Saints should have covered even without the fumble. So there. (I lost too so let's all get over it already). Rodney Peete does amazingly make a difference for this Carolina team though. N.Y. Giants at Minnesota Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Giants 43% 19% 5.0 100 46% 12% 6.6 100 29 Minnesota 72% 28% 8.9 156 27% 9% 3.8 51 22 Culpepper or Bouman? Let's see, Daunte has been flat out horrible all year, Bouman only led the team to two touchdowns in coming back to take the lead...hmmm. If I'm Mike Tice (which clearly I am not) then Bouman "beam me up scotty" gets the start next out. If you can't win with a 72% rushing play success rate and 28% of rushes going for 10+ yards then something is SERIOUSLY WRONG!!! Hello anyone listening in Minnesota??? [silence] Of course, what can you expect from a state that elects a professional wrestler for Governor?? San Diego at St. Louis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Diego 48% 13% 4.1 90 40% 5% 5.9 45 6 St. Louis 35% 12% 3.0 52 57% 12% 8.8 155 39 Unbeknownst to the average football fan is that this game wasn't close. Take away the two defensive touchdowns for San Diego and it's a blowout. Chargers going downhill fast. Seattle at Arizona Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Seattle 51% 12% 4.6 106 62% 9% 7.9 153 47 Arizona 50% 14% 4.1 75 43% 12% 7.2 103 20 Blah! Neither of these teams is worth watching this season. Washington at Jacksonville Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Washington 43% 13% 4.2 81 46% 3% 4.1 74 11 Jacksonville 48% 17% 5.0 110 44% 6% 5.0 91 32 Topsy-Turvy NFL world, part three-hundred and sixty-eight: Jacksonville, a team that couldn't beat an expansion side two weeks before, stops the with momentum Washington Redskins in their tracks. Kansas City at San Francisco Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Kansas City 44% 17% 3.2 88 38% 10% 5.6 80 18 San Francisco 59% 13% 4.9 109 51% 0% 4.5 70 23 Don't look now, but if San Francisco's defense can stuff Priest Holmes (even if it was pouring with rain and the field was slippery) then they may be a team to consider as a dark horse. Where's the Garcia-Owens connection in 2002 I wonder? New England at Chicago Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New England 57% 11% 3.3 57 43% 5% 5.4 91 25 Chicago 41% 10% 3.7 77 23% 0% 2.9 23 0 Patriots were lucky to win, would have been unlucky to lose. Bears passing game a big zero. Their best QB is apparently wide receiver Marty Booker. Miami at N.Y. Jets Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Miami 30% 13% 3.0 43 56% 13% 6.7 140 32 N.Y. Jets 33% 7% 3.1 50 51% 3% 6.0 112 21 WRONG TEAM WON! Only game last week where that's the case. Of course if you saw the Miami touchdown that was called back by Instant Replay you know that this game had a sour smell. Give some credit to Herman Edwards though for getting the Jets back to 4-5 after the horrible start. Oakland at Denver Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Oakland 21% 0% 1.9 28 70% 10% 8.8 162 37 Denver 52% 5% 3.6 85 55% 0% 5.0 90 18 Raiders passed all game and might as well have given up running the ball completely. NFL teams are realizing it can be pretty darn tough to stop the pass even when you know it's coming if there's some skill on the other team's offense. Still, 70% success rate through the air is extraordinary. Moving along to that litte business of me versus the bag of bolts O/D Ranks computer, last week was another hiccup for da both of us, and so it's still Tim 2, Computer 1 on the weekly scoring system (yeah, there was some research article posted about all this O/D line nonsense, Read it here). To Battle then! O/D Ranks Line Week 11 Away Line Home O/D Line Pick Value Arizona -11.5 Philadelphia -14 Philadelphia -2.5 Baltimore -4.5 Miami -7 Miami -2.5 Buffalo -3.5 Kansas City -3 Buffalo .5 Cleveland +3.5 Cincinnati -3 Cincinnati -6.5 Dallas -6.5 Indianapolis -7 Indianapolis -.5 Green Bay +6.5 Minnesota -3 Minnesota -9.5 New Orleans -3 Atlanta 0 New Orleans 3 Pittsburgh +3 Tennessee 2 Tennessee -1 Washington -3.5 N.Y. Giants -10 N.Y. Giants -6.5 Carolina -9 Tampa Bay -3 Carolina 6 San Francisco +2.5 San Diego -3 San Diego -5.5 Denver +4.5 Seattle 8 Denver 3.5 Jacksonville +6 Houston 4 Houston -2 N.Y. Jets +3 Detroit -2 Detroit -5 New England -4 Oakland 1 New England 5 Chicago -10 St. Louis -17 St. Louis -7 ANALYSIS: The O/D Machine whirrs and grates, clangs and bangs, rocks and socks, churns and learns and ultimately spits out the two selections -- the rules for Mr. O/D Computer are that a pick only qualifies if the O/D Line is 7 points away from the vegas spread. Thus my foe goes for: Minnesota, and St. Louis. Without resorting to devious bits and bytes bottlenecks to solve this connundrum, mojo working professional football bettor mister Tim is ready to take back command in this challenge. Tim draws two cards... flips 'em over... to reveal... CINCINNATI and BALTIMORE That's correct, I'm going back to the punishment zone with the Bengalis, with a little dose of double Cleveland angst thrown in 'cause the Ravens will win too Last Week: Tim 1-2, O/D Ranks 1-2 tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved