Monday/Wednesday/Friday Edition, November 19th-23rd

THE WEEK THAT WAS / WEEK TWELVE PICKS Ht off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week eleven of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Arizona at Philadelphia Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Arizona 47% 16% 6.1 100 42% 3% 3.2 60 15 Philadelphia 58% 12% 4.9 109 73% 15% 9.6 161 48 I told you it was going to happen! See Fantasy Busts for the original story. (Yes, I was about two months off on the timing). Old Tim said to be wary of Donovan McNabb because Philadephia was simply going to WEAR HIM OUT! He is the whole team and that factors in to how it was that he played practically a whole entire game with a broken ankle! Any normal NFL player gets the full x-rays and they say okay buddy, you're out of the game...with Philadelphia where the pressure for McEverything to play is so great, the response is "geez, looks ok to me, here's some ice now get back out there." Kudos to the big D.M. for putting up such spectacular numbers in spite of it all. Oh yeah, Arizona stink. Baltimore at Miami Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Baltimore 38% 0% 3.1 57 29% 6% 2.8 44 3 Miami 51% 3% 2.9 75 49% 12% 8.4 126 34 No contest on this one, much to Tim's chagrin. Who knew that all Ray Lucas needed was Ricky Williams? Buffalo at Kansas City Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Buffalo 65% 12% 5.1 111 58% 3% 5.5 112 29 Kansas City 40% 9% 3.7 68 52% 20% 9.6 156 42 Should have been a high-scoring, fireworks studded spectacle...instead the final score was 17-16. Lots of yards for little consequence. Fact that Holmes has struggled (relatively speaking) running the ball the last couple of games not the best of signs for KC. Anyone remember the name of that tight end the Chiefs used to have...Tony something? (sure seems like the coaching staff has forgotten him) Cleveland at Cincinnati Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cleveland 45% 11% 3.6 65 52% 6% 6.7 116 22 Cincinnati 50% 14% 4.6 81 46% 9% 7.8 125 35 Dang it, I knew it! I knew my Bungles, Bengalis, Bengi-atees should have won this game! The day they learn to execute the 1 yard TD plunge into the end zone is the day the Bengals Super Bowl dynasty begins. Pathetic. Let's move on. Dallas at Indianapolis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Dallas 38% 17% 4.6 83 26% 3% 2.4 56 6 Indianapolis 48% 10% 3.6 70 51% 10% 6.4 105 32 At the start of the 4th quarter Dallas fans were thinking upset. Blink! There goes that thought. Colts toyed with the Boys. Things are getting a little ugly in Dallas however, with Emmitt not doing the graceful step aside move. Green Bay at Minnesota Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Green Bay 26% 11% 3.2 36 41% 7% 6.2 69 3 Minnesota 54% 16% 5.6 113 46% 19% 7.3 109 37 No matter how bad the Vikings look coming into the game (and it was pretty bad for this, considering that along with the horrible season the whole linebacker crew had some kind of virus-thingy) they can always pound the Packers at home. New Orleans at Atlanta Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New Orleans 45% 0% 3.1 59 45% 8% 7.1 105 21 Atlanta 45% 17% 4.5 85 37% 10% 6.3 86 22 Saints running game held in check very well by the Falcons and thus Atlanta got the win. What's that bird dance they did during the last Super Bowl run? Pittsburgh at Tennessee Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Pittsburgh 26% 20% 3.0 53 53% 6% 6.8 100 15 Tennessee 41% 9% 3.2 67 45% 11% 6.7 118 32 Titans much the better team on this given sunday. Roaring back from 1-4 to 6-4 is some mighty fine work there Tennesseans! Washington at N.Y. Giants Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Washington 38% 5% 2.8 57 30% 0% 3.2 48 9 N.Y. Giants 22% 3% 2.3 37 38% 2% 4.5 63 14 This dull type of affair is the reason why the NFC East continues to be the least interesting division in the league. Giants are of course in decent shape to make the playoffs and could even get the division win with McNabb out. Still, only so many inept offensive games a person can watch. Carolina at Tampa Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Carolina 31% 11% 3.3 52 38% 7% 4.0 47 0 Tampa Bay 48% 0% 2.0 55 41% 10% 5.6 112 31 Ah yes, the Bucs are a good story. 8-2 and Gruden-mania beginning to catch on. This week is prime-time pitting Favre versus Sapp once more. The Rodney Peete genius move from coach Fox has now officially outlived its lifespan. 3-0 to 3-7 represents the biggest fall from grace (though most predictable) in the league. Can defense win it all this year like it did for Baltimore? If so, the Bucs are the team. San Francisco at San Diego Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Francisco 50% 20% 4.7 76 42% 9% 7.4 95 20 San Diego 32% 14% 3.7 64 45% 8% 6.3 107 25 Quit the whining 49ers, every kicker misses a field goal once in a while! Heck it was 40 some yards so it wasn't a gimme. What about Gary Anderson missing the first field goal all season in the NFC Championship game? What about Vanderjagt missing the game winner for Jim Mora against Miami? What about Scott Norwood miss~ er, scratch that. Still, this game was up in the air and it wound up being a San Diego win, as it should have been, end of story. Denver at Seattle Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Denver 40% 17% 5.4 80 54% 9% 5.7 97 28 Seattle 37% 0% 3.1 68 34% 2% 3.7 39 3 Turn out the lights, the party's over (Mike Holmgren). It was fun, but now it's over (Mike Holmgren). You were a genius in Green Bay but now you're not anymore (Mike Holmgren). Denver's a good team folks, and while they are under the radar compared to the more high profile NFL clubs out there, would you want to bet against Shanahan when he's already got two rings? What would be cool if Beurlein sticks as the QB and has a throwback half season to his glory Carolina year! Jacksonville at Houston Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Jacksonville 48% 19% 4.5 74 43% 13% 6.6 96 23 Houston 35% 7% 2.7 67 40% 8% 5.4 86 18 Jaguars doing enough to win, but weren't rubbing it in. These Texans have been trying hard and I like the Carr to Bradford (good for one bomb a game) connection. N.Y. Jets at Detroit Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Jets 58% 14% 5.3 100 64% 11% 7.4 153 40 Detroit 40% 15% 5.4 80 29% 6% 4.1 52 13 Jets are 5-5. Incredible. Anyone up for a St. Louis - Jets ultimate Recovery Super Bowl? Demolished the Lions and Pennington looks real good. New England at Oakland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New England 41% 6% 2.8 52 41% 6% 4.2 69 3 Oakland 48% 7% 3.3 93 56% 5% 7.2 104 36 Obviously the final score in this one was closer than it should have been from the stats. Oakland were the better team in 2001, still the better team this year. Let's write off the New England repeat chances shall we? Chicago at St. Louis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Chicago 50% 14% 3.3 81 27% 5% 2.7 46 3 St. Louis 36% 11% 3.2 68 44% 19% 7.3 109 34 Another game where the statistics suggest a much wider final margin than the actual game score. Rams a tough team for anyone to play at this point. Go get 'em Kurt and company! Moving along to that litte business of me versus the bag of bolts O/D Ranks computer, last week was another dark day in Tim's life...yes indeed I lost the week and it's now all tied with Tim 2, Computer 2 and 2 Draws on the weekly scoring system (yeah, there was some research article posted about all this O/D line nonsense, Read it here). My orders are clear -- win or I'm out as the TwoMinuteWarning entertainment director...who's afraid of Virginia Woolf? To Battle then! O/D Ranks Line Week 12 Away Line Home O/D Line Pick Value Atlanta +3.5 Carolina -11 Carolina -14.5 Buffalo -3 N.Y. Jets 5 Buffalo 8 Cincinnati -10.5 Pittsburgh -14 Pittsburgh -3.5 Cleveland -7 New Orleans 1 Cleveland 8 Detroit -4.5 Chicago -3 Detroit 1.5 Green Bay -3 Tampa Bay -3 0 Jacksonville +2.5 Dallas 0 Dallas -2.5 Minnesota -7.5 New England 1 Minnesota 8.5 San Diego -3 Miami -6 Miami -3 Tennessee +2 Baltimore 1 Baltimore -1 Kansas City +3 Seattle 1 Seattle -2 Oakland +8 Arizona 5 Arizona -3 N.Y. Giants +5.5 Houston 3 Houston -2.5 St. Louis +5.5 Washington -3 Washington -8.5 Indianapolis -6.5 Denver -10 Denver -3.5 Philadelphia -7 San Francisco 0 Philadelphia 7 ANALYSIS: Finally I get a real target to shoot at! After weeks of the O/D Machine cranking and whirring only to spit out one or maybe, maybe, two picks for a week, for whatever grand bits and byte design scheme, the O/D Machine has SIX picks in week twelve. The rules for Mr. O/D Computer are that a pick only qualifies if the O/D Line is 7 points away from the vegas spread. Thus my foe goes for: Carolina, Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, Washington, and Philadelphia. Since I'm under pressure here, I'll have to turn to every devious NFL whiz-bang picking strategy I have ever manufactured in answer: Tim draws six cards... flips 'em over... to reveal... TAMPA BAY, DALLAS, MINNESOTA, MIAMI, BALTIMORE, and ARIZONA. Last Week: Tim 0-2, O/D Ranks 1-1 tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved