Monday/Wednesday/Friday Edition, December 2nd-6th

THE WEEK THAT WAS / WEEK FOURTEEN PICKS Uh, Yah. You might say that Tim has some job security now here as TwoMinuteWarning.com entertainment director. Despite ghoulish peons looking for an excuse to oust the old Timster, Tim-a-roni, the Tim-inator, Tim shoved all those foul thoughts back into the deep recesses of the company vault by delivering two triumphant back-to-back weeks of glory and knocking the old bag of bolts O/D Ranks computer one step closer to the scrapyard. In week twelve Tim got the ultimatum: win or else. Result: 5-1 with the Win-O-Rama picks. Then in week thirteen, with the command of "prove it was no fluke"... Result: 3-1 with the Win-O-Rama picks. That's two straight weeks of clobbering the O/D Machine leaving the current challenge scoreboard as Tim 4, O/D Computer 2, with 2 ties. Given that we only have four weeks left, Tim's magic number to be champion is just one more weekly win (I retain the title in event of a total square-up draw). Hmmm, what color do I want my championship prize Ferrari in? Onwards and upwards, hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week thirteen of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. New England at Detroit Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New England 67% 5% 3.5 102 58% 6% 6.9 112 37 Detroit 53% 20% 5.4 113 34% 7% 4.1 49 10 Can Patriots be a factor in the playoffs? Can they even make the playoffs? These and other questions may become clear after this week's game with Buffalo. Washington at Dallas Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Washington 44% 8% 3.3 68 51% 5% 6.2 84 13 Dallas 61% 28% 5.8 119 28% 9% 4.2 75 28 My, my, my. "Steve Spurrier, genius" is now replaced with "Steve Spurrier, yet another hyped college coach who couldn't cut it." Do you think that the Redskins might have a better record here in 2002 if they had stuck with Schottenheimer instead of going with mighty mouse? If you can't beat the Cowboys pal, you ain't going nowhere. Arizona at Kansas City Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Arizona 14% 0% 1.8 21 22% 4% 1.8 3 6 Kansas City 62% 14% 5.8 127 67% 18% 9.3 182 38 Boy Arizona are bad. Only surprising thing is that the projected stats score had them scoring six points? Where'd those points come from? This team completely gave up before kickoff. Disgusting effort. Atlanta at Minnesota Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Atlanta 41% 21% 7.8 120 31% 6% 4.6 75 26 Minnesota 42% 12% 3.9 84 43% 6% 4.2 66 13 If the O/D Ranks computer could shed tears it would have been going "boo-hoo" over the outcome to this one. Sure Minnesota covered the whole game, until the very last play. So what, the Falcons deserved to win this one in hand. Give Bouman a shot at the QB spot? Why not? I mean he's only got a career passer rating in the high 90's while Culpepper has posted a 70 this year and an 83 in 2001. Baltimore at Cincinnati Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Baltimore 55% 10% 5.0 79 37% 8% 3.9 83 19 Cincinnati 34% 3% 2.5 51 41% 6% 6.4 89 16 Bengals lose again, yeah, yeah, yeah. Next. Carolina at Cleveland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Carolina 40% 11% 4.2 68 19% 5% 3.6 19 3 Cleveland 46% 14% 5.0 85 33% 0% 3.7 30 19 No suprise with this one, the wrong team won in a way since it was turnovers that cost Cleveland a win and a playoff berth potentially (although really, if you lose to Carolina in a must have game you're not exactly the NFL's first choice for a post-season appearance). I've been shouting it all along, time for a QB change in Cleveland. Chicago at Green Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Chicago 47% 18% 3.7 88 46% 7% 5.9 95 21 Green Bay 61% 26% 5.8 132 40% 5% 5.0 79 30 Wouldn't you know it, the stats projection is for a nine point Green Bay win, just one point away from the actual score. Of course that one point difference was the cover swing as it turned out. Bears kept Favre in check pretty well, but the rushing stats allowed make me think Ricky Williams will be having fun on Monday Night. Miami at Buffalo Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Miami 50% 19% 8.0 125 25% 0% 1.8 25 6 Buffalo 60% 8% 3.9 92 40% 16% 8.5 125 38 Buffalo squashed the Dolphins in the snow as I predicted. Fact that Miami doesn't have any experience passing the ball in such conditions really showed. Pittsburgh at Jacksonville Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Pittsburgh 56% 22% 6.0 116 53% 7% 6.9 107 35 Jacksonville 42% 14% 4.8 80 39% 4% 4.7 96 20 Well, the wrong team covered in this one. Pittsburgh should have won it easy but had to survive a two point attempt to escape with the real win. Kordell did all right but word is Maddox is back. Tennessee at N.Y. Giants Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tennessee 50% 19% 4.4 93 54% 11% 7.4 145 41 N.Y. Giants 30% 9% 2.8 69 47% 19% 7.1 133 30 Giants, Schmiants. Titans drop the G-Men. Denver at San Diego Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Denver 48% 19% 5.7 103 36% 7% 5.5 70 16 San Diego 44% 8% 5.7 97 39% 5% 5.1 86 27 Ooh it was a gritty game in San Diego, but the Chargers were the right team to come out on top. Gotta love Mr. Tomlinson's red zone running. Houston at Indianapolis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Houston 20% 10% 3.2 35 30% 0% 2.1 47 0 Indianapolis 43% 7% 2.6 63 43% 10% 6.4 106 29 Yawn. Many more of these kind of matchups and I may have to start writing my blathering opinions about other sports. Seattle at San Francisco Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Seattle 40% 15% 3.5 80 41% 11% 7.7 107 26 San Francisco 63% 6% 4.0 100 41% 6% 5.0 80 21 The WRONG TEAM WON! Sugar. 49ers sure don't have the magic when it comes to proving they're a great team, yet somehow their won-loss record keeps chugging along in fine fashion. Maybe Garcia WAS sick and so the poor passing numbers can be excused. St. Louis at Philadelphia Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score St. Louis 50% 5% 3.8 80 28% 4% 3.0 34 0 Philadelphia 33% 7% 3.6 53 39% 6% 4.7 90 24 Eagles don't need McNabb. Heck, when you hold the Rams to a 28% passing success rate and a paltry 3.0 yards per passing attempt you don't need much offense at all. Good thing too. Tampa Bay at New Orleans Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tampa Bay 17% 0% 2.0 35 44% 6% 5.4 93 14 New Orleans 37% 7% 3.5 62 26% 10% 4.5 73 15 Somehow I don't think we've witnessed the last game between New Orleans and Tampa Bay this season. My hunch is that the Bucs will get 'em in meeting number three. Need to improve that rushing attack old Gruden buddy! N.Y. Jets at Oakland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Jets 35% 0% 2.2 35 47% 8% 6.8 121 18 Oakland 50% 4% 3.7 84 51% 6% 6.4 117 35 Tim doubted the Raiders a few weeks ago, no more. This team is mean, ugly and wears silver and black. You don't want to face them come playoff time. They run, they pass, they stop the run, they give up the pass. Okay, three out of four ain't bad. Back to the Tim versus gigantic wheezing O/D ranks computer. A formaility at this point, now isn't it. There was some research article posted about all this O/D line nonsense, Read it here. There has yet to be an article published on how Tim's genius mind comes up with such groovy selections. To Battle then! O/D Ranks Line Week 14 Away Line Home O/D Line Pick Value Atlanta -3.5 Tampa Bay -7 Tampa Bay -3.5 Buffalo -4.5 New England -3 Buffalo 1.5 Cincinnati -3.5 Carolina -7 Carolina -3.5 Cleveland -2.5 Jacksonville -11 Jacksonville -8.5 Houston -13.5 Pittsburgh -14 Pittsburgh -.5 Indianapolis -2 Tennessee -2 0 N.Y. Giants -2.5 Washington 0 N.Y. Giants 2.5 San Francisco +5 Dallas -3 Dallas -8 St. Louis -4.5 Kansas City 5 St. Louis 9.5 Detroit -1.5 Arizona -3 Arizona -1.5 New Orleans +1.5 Baltimore 1 Baltimore -.5 Philadelphia +3 Seattle 8 Philadelphia 5 Denver +1.5 N.Y. Jets 16 Denver 14.5 Oakland +3 San Diego 5 Oakland 2 Minnesota -9.5 Green Bay -3 Minnesota 6.5 Chicago -9 Miami -10 Miami -1 ANALYSIS: I can afford to be a little gentlemanly at this point, and I'll give the O/D tool it's due. This week the picks aren't even all that bad...with one exception. Mr. O/D Computer considers it a pick anytime the O/D Line is 7 points away from the vegas spread. Thus my foe goes for: Jacksonville, Dallas, St. Louis, and Denver. Tim draws four cards in response... flips 'em over... to reveal... SEATTLE, DETROIT, the JETS, and a chalk player's delight...MIAMI on MONDAY! Last Week: Tim 3-1, O/D Ranks 1-3 send fan mail to: tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved