Monday/Wednesday/Friday Edition, December 9th-13th

THE WEEK THAT WAS / WEEK FIFTEEN PICKS Ding Dong the witch is dead / the wicked old witch, the wick-ed witch / Ding Dong the wicked witch is dead! Yesiree, after last week's third straight victory by Tim over the O/D Ranks computer, it's all wrapped up, as Tim holds an insurmountable 5 wins to 2 wins (with two ties) score edge. Just like in chess in the event of a tie the reigning champion keeps the title...that would be me. So long O/D Ranks Machine, Adios bag of bolts! Since I've disposed of my foe, vanquished my challenger, obliterated my adversary, conquered my nemesis and just generally shown up the computer hacks, it's time for fresh meat. Tim's taking on all comers! Bring on your game suckers! Oh, but first, hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week fourteen of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Atlanta at Tampa Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Atlanta 27% 5% 3.0 40 27% 7% 3.8 44 3 Tampa Bay 33% 20% 4.7 63 53% 13% 8.4 156 36 Dem Bucs look might formidable playing at home. Several NFC teams vying for home field advantage, but I'm a liking the Bucs to be best of the Nationals. Defense still wins in the NFL. Buffalo at New England Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Buffalo 50% 17% 4.3 100 56% 4% 5.8 83 22 New England 52% 4% 3.3 86 34% 10% 5.9 89 23 Ooh, pipsqueak, this game should have been closer than the actual final score. Of course the Pats got ahead and played run out the clock so that's part of it. Cincinnati at Carolina Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cincinnati 33% 11% 3.1 51 48% 9% 6.0 113 16 Carolina 39% 7% 3.0 64 62% 22% 10.0 171 49 Oh dear. It's been a rough year for us Bengals fans. Heck it's been a rough decade. This one was just abominable, giving up so many points to Carolina!! EEK! Rodney Peete! I run screaming from the room (so say the Cincinnati defensive backs apparently). In the scoring blitz the Panthers got 14 points from punt returns, seven from a fumble recovered in the end zone, and two for good measure for a safety. Stats say it was still a blowout without those gleeful moments. Cleveland at Jacksonville Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cleveland 52% 18% 4.7 94 47% 10% 6.2 80 20 Jacksonville 43% 16% 4.5 90 44% 0% 3.2 77 21 The stats score would have been a better representation than the actual score (which was reversed from the above). Browns lucked out, but Jags also did some dumb things down the stretch. Neither team passed the ball well. Houston at Pittsburgh Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Houston 12% 4% 1.5 0 25% 0% 1.5 31 0 Pittsburgh 46% 9% 3.0 65 34% 2% 4.7 71 28 Ha Ha! Stats score 28-zip for Pittsburgh, Actual Score 24-6 Houston!!! This game truly was incredible and one that defies any kind of statistical analysis. How does a team with only 3 first downs and less than 50 total yards win? Well, by having a 5-1 turnover edge, running back two interceptions for touchdowns, running back a fumble for a TD, and laughing all the way through Pittsburgh's ineptness. Steelers a good team? Give me a break! Against the good teams they are 1-4-1. Indianapolis at Tennessee Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Indianapolis 52% 4% 3.5 72 51% 5% 6.6 97 18 Tennessee 51% 9% 3.3 90 69% 13% 10.3 173 51 Wow! How tough is McNair? Pretty darn tooting tough. To play through all the injuries and put up mondo passing stats above is impressive. Colts got worked. N.Y. Giants at Washington Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Giants 43% 7% 3.3 73 37% 16% 5.9 89 15 Washington 60% 15% 6.6 120 38% 8% 5.6 86 32 WRONG TEAM WON! Buster muster. The Giants are a strange team, but somehow have an okay 7-6 record after all. All this losing meanwhile for Washington couldn't happen to a nicer pair of chaps (Snyder and Spurrier). How hard is Schottenheimer laughing these days?? San Francisco at Dallas Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Francisco 48% 10% 3.4 80 47% 4% 4.9 94 28 Dallas 44% 19% 4.0 85 32% 7% 5.2 42 3 Well, the wrong team covered apparently. In the actual game the 49ers were darn lucky to win, but on the stats side they had it all working. Hutchinson paltry against the SF defense (which has been leaky). St. Louis at Kansas City Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score St. Louis 22% 0% 1.7 11 46% 2% 4.2 85 6 Kansas City 52% 16% 4.4 113 47% 12% 6.6 123 39 Yeah, Chiefs have that Austin Powers mojo going on right now. Priest Holmes is a single handed fantasy league wrecking crew of one. Detroit at Arizona Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Detroit 46% 7% 3.4 73 39% 5% 4.5 92 21 Arizona 40% 17% 4.1 76 42% 4% 4.3 75 16 Okay, here's my beef, I bet the Lions in this old event, and then even suffered through watching some of it as a result. The thing about betting bad teams is you need to expect that at some point(s) in the game they will make boneheaded plays. The real painful moment in this was when the Lions fumbled a punt up 17-7. Tim just knew the game was going to turn at that point, whereas if they field the punt, go into halftime ahead by that score it's over. The WRONG TEAM WON. Oh yeah, I know that, oh yeah. New Orleans at Baltimore Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New Orleans 50% 5% 3.9 82 33% 10% 5.0 74 14 Baltimore 50% 13% 4.7 91 33% 12% 7.1 80 23 Hmmm, this one is curious. Saints crushed the Ravens yet the stats say it isn't so? Five Baltimore turnovers a big part of the problem. Philadelphia at Seattle Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Philadelphia 44% 10% 4.3 89 42% 5% 4.9 86 21 Seattle 60% 20% 7.4 124 42% 2% 3.7 61 22 Another game where the WRONG TEAM WON! And Tim bet this one too! AARGH! Seahawks should have been running it down the Eagles throat. Broken record story: three interceptions for Hasselbeck too much to overcome. Denver at N.Y. Jets Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Denver 65% 3% 3.8 96 52% 2% 5.4 88 19 N.Y. Jets 35% 5% 3.0 70 51% 9% 6.5 124 34 Hello Jets! These guys are the Patriots of 2002, the Norman Chad Team of Destiny if he was still around. Next up on the magical mystery tour: Chicago. Denver has that tired, not quite going to make it, feel. Oakland at San Diego Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Oakland 46% 0% 2.1 73 50% 7% 7.0 113 32 San Diego 40% 9% 3.1 63 39% 7% 4.9 63 6 Raid-ahs! RAID-AHS! Ok, they are good. You just know though that somehow Al Davis' team will catch a bad break at a crucial moment. Al should be suing the officiating crews, not the league. Lack of a running game could be the Oaktown ultimate downfall. Minnesota at Green Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Minnesota 61% 19% 6.9 130 28% 3% 3.6 46 8 Green Bay 50% 14% 4.4 85 52% 9% 6.8 120 39 Ka-Boom! Speaking of officials, did you hear where the NFL has admitted to Minnesota that there were at least nine mistakes by the officials that went against Minny? Including a decisive interception that was called back? NINE PLAYS!! I mean that's out of what 100 total plays or something of which only twenty or so might have called for a ref? So we're saying the refs have at least a 50% error rate?? Holy smokes! Chicago at Miami Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Chicago 43% 13% 4.4 82 24% 3% 2.2 16 0 Miami 46% 22% 5.8 95 40% 13% 5.8 81 28 Yawn, Chicago are so yesterday. Miami's Williams is a BIG DUDE. Gosh! Can see why having that wall of muscle running the ball for you is a good thing. So, where do we turn for competition from here? Tim has foiled the O/D Machine's dream of taking over this joint. Therefore since one opponent is clearly no match for Tim's genius mind, I'll take on three slammies at once: Opponent #1: the Home Dogger This week: Houston, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Chicago, Detroit Opponent #2: Boz the Injury Report dissecter This week: Jacksonville, Atlanta, Washington, Dallas, Green Bay, St. Louis Opponent #3: the O/D Machine O/D Ranks Line Week 15 Away Line Home O/D Line Pick Value Baltimore +3 Houston 0 Houston -3 Carolina -8.5 Pittsburgh -3 Carolina 5.5 Indianapolis +2 Cleveland 1 Cleveland -1 Jacksonville +3 Cincinnati 0 Cincinnati -3 Minnesota -7.5 New Orleans 1 Minnesota 8.5 N.Y. Jets +6 Chicago 1 Chicago -5 Oakland -1.5 Miami -6 Miami -4.5 San Diego -3 Buffalo -3 0 Seattle -10 Atlanta -7 Seattle 3 Tampa Bay +8.5 Detroit 8 Detroit -.5 Washington -7.5 Philadelphia -11 Philadelphia -3.5 Kansas City -4 Denver -14 Denver -10 Dallas -5 N.Y. Giants -7 N.Y. Giants -2 Green Bay -3 San Francisco -3 0 Arizona -9 St. Louis -14 St. Louis -5 New England -2 Tennessee 2 New England 4 ANALYSIS: Brou-Ha-ha! Brou-hah-hah! [and so on...repeated Dr. Evil laughs] Champion Tim is ready for these clowns. Tim draws his cards in response... flips 'em over... to reveal... Champion Tim's Week 15 Picks *** MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, GREEN BAY *** send fan mail to: tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved