Monday/Wednesday/Friday Edition, December 16th-20th

THE WEEK THAT WAS / WEEK SIXTEEN PICKS Yawn. Another 3-1 weekend for Tim, another victory over not one, not two, but three certifiably inferior opponents. Tim even received numerous challenges via emails from you'all readers, and with the exception of one individual who shall remain nameless, Tim bested them all. Oh, but first, hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week fifteen of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Baltimore at Houston Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Baltimore 38% 12% 3.4 61 43% 16% 6.8 128 33 Houston 56% 4% 3.4 88 45% 5% 4.8 75 14 We all know that Houston has been winning with mirrors every time, and they are the classic "bad stats but keep it close" team. Even this game should have been more of a blowout, but darned if those pesky Texans didn't make a game of it. Bravo. Bravo. Carolina at Pittsburgh Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Carolina 40% 13% 3.2 66 31% 2% 1.7 34 0 Pittsburgh 40% 5% 3.2 67 35% 8% 5.1 72 24 This one was flat out awful and Tim gave it hardly a look on the NFL Ticket this past Sunday. If Pittsburgh does anything in the playoffs I'll eat my hat (note: Tim is accepting hat donations). Indianapolis at Cleveland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Indianapolis 45% 13% 4.6 90 47% 17% 7.6 119 36 Cleveland 41% 0% 3.0 48 35% 8% 7.1 95 13 Colts are better than I had expected. Seem to be winning a good number of difficult games (who can forget how they roasted Philadelphia in Philly) and have some star power to boot. Browns on the other hand need to bench Couch (or is it couch Bench?_) Jacksonville at Cincinnati Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Jacksonville 48% 7% 3.7 72 56% 9% 6.7 137 38 Cincinnati 39% 4% 2.8 60 44% 6% 5.1 80 11 Yes Bengals are the worst team in the NFL. Here's the Tim plan for reviving this franchise in the last two weeks. Drag Boomer Esiason out on the field to QB these clowns (see if you can get Icky too for that matter). Run trick plays every other down. On defense ignore the run and just try for goodness sake to stop the pass! Minnesota at New Orleans Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Minnesota 48% 28% 5.8 108 48% 10% 6.6 107 35 New Orleans 31% 14% 3.1 54 43% 5% 5.4 100 16 Vikings were not lucky to win this, should have had it in the bag long before the last second heroics. Love it that Tice had them go for two and the win rather than overtime. Maybe some other coaches will be bold. Tice gets my vote of confidence and I look for Minnesota to be good in 2003. Fantasy players noticed the scary numbers Culpepper's posting. N.Y. Jets at Chicago Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Jets 45% 17% 5.5 75 52% 8% 6.2 122 29 Chicago 60% 12% 4.2 120 48% 3% 4.8 90 28 Well, well, well, what's all this then? Looks like the WRONG TEAM WON according to the stats projection of what the score should have been. Somehow on the way to the forum the Jets mistakenly thought that Chicago wouldn't be able to run the ball without Thomas, a fatal mistake indeed. Oakland at Miami Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Oakland 58% 25% 4.6 100 41% 8% 4.6 80 16 Miami 51% 12% 3.3 84 52% 8% 6.0 116 35 Yah, Miami good in home. Yah, Oakland good too outside Miami. Yah, both teams in playoff for sure. Yah, Oakland better playoff prospects. Yah. San Diego at Buffalo Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Diego 36% 3% 3.5 63 35% 10% 5.8 76 8 Buffalo 64% 20% 5.8 120 30% 8% 4.6 80 31 Wow! Whoopee! Things are so bad in San Diego it's time to play "where's the Flutie?" Give the ball to Doug, Marty! This is a sad thing indeed to see the Chargers go from playoff frontrunners to out of the dance party. Second year in a row that they have been lousy the second half of the season. Seattle at Atlanta Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Seattle 37% 8% 3.7 64 61% 15% 9.6 173 43 Atlanta 42% 6% 4.2 71 42% 10% 5.5 80 16 Seahawks trying to save Holmgren's job perhaps and gosh Hasselback looks like a pretty decent QB right now. Maybe Mikey was right! Falcons have too many weaknesses to really look damaging in the playoffs, but Vick still a cool, cool dude. Tampa Bay at Detroit Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tampa Bay 51% 14% 3.5 100 47% 7% 6.2 102 31 Detroit 44% 20% 5.8 108 33% 8% 6.5 70 18 Boring game, Bucs clearly better. Never has home field advantage for the post-season meant so much. Washington at Philadelphia Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Washington 41% 17% 3.5 79 45% 5% 5.1 92 24 Philadelphia 25% 10% 3.0 45 34% 16% 7.2 84 11 What the ~?? The stats must have been watching the wrong game, because the parts I saw were ALL PHILADELPHIA. Washington 5-9 and may even lose another one along the way. Spurrier verdict -- GONG!! Somehow, it's a funny thing, but NFL players with big money contracts don't like being yanked in and out of the lineup as if they were the coach's puppets. Face it Steve you are another in a long line of NFL FAILURES!! All right, it may be premature, but I'll be saying the same thing next year and then Steve will take his sorry strategies back to the NCAA. Kansas City at Denver Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Kansas City 57% 15% 7.1 123 34% 9% 6.7 95 24 Denver 62% 11% 5.6 117 53% 17% 9.5 130 45 Yes I bet the Chiefs and no they didn't deserve to cover. When you have a +3 turnover edge and still lose by a touchdown you did not play at all well. Clinton Portis meanwhile is a stud. Dallas at N.Y. Giants Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Dallas 37% 11% 3.8 55 27% 5% 3.0 47 3 N.Y. Giants 51% 6% 5.1 103 48% 10% 7.0 125 37 How do you like dem apples? The final score was very close to the stats score. Which is to say this was a complete wipeout. How much to make of the tough Dallas defeat the prior week? It was a horrible defeat syndrome candidate certainly and maybe those TMW research moles need to look into the bad loss by a bad team effect. Green Bay at San Francisco Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Green Bay 35% 10% 3.4 64 57% 6% 5.7 111 26 San Francisco 47% 22% 4.6 104 45% 3% 4.5 65 17 Packers won. Packers always win when playing the 49ers. Favre 111, Garcia 65, so says the passing EFR ratings. End of story. Arizona at St. Louis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Arizona 50% 10% 4.3 90 54% 10% 8.2 122 37 St. Louis 50% 6% 3.7 66 47% 9% 6.5 88 14 Whoah! not only did the WRONG TEAM WIN, it should have been a huge win for the Zona guys. Makes me suspect St. Louis is in for a thumping against the Seahawks this week. New England at Tennessee Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New England 38% 15% 4.3 84 33% 3% 3.7 58 10 Tennessee 48% 18% 4.6 87 37% 4% 4.2 62 17 How delicate the NFL balance is. Down by a touchdown with the ball and momentum, Tom Brady's first pass of the drive is picked off and run back for a touchdown. End of game. Have to like the Tennessee imitation of New England circa 2001 (the Titans are 8-1 over the last nine games) and have to think both these teams are playoff worthy. So, where do we turn for competition from here? Tim has foiled the O/D Machine's dream of taking over this joint. He's dismissed the home dogger, the injury dissecter and other foes too numerous to mention. Perhaps the only competition is with Tim himself. Therefore this week's picks will be split into "left brain selections" and "right brain selections." First up of course, is my old friend the O/D Machine: O/D Ranks Line Week 16 Away Line Home O/D Line Pick Value Miami +3 Minnesota -3 Minnesota -6 San Francisco +4.5 Arizona 8 San Francisco 3.5 Philadelphia +6.5 Dallas 3 Dallas -3.5 Buffalo -6.5 Green Bay -4 Buffalo 2.5 Chicago -3 Carolina -10 Carolina -7 Detroit -11 Atlanta -7 Detroit 4 Houston -6.5 Washington -7 Washington -.5 New Orleans +7 Cincinnati -3 Cincinnati -10 N.Y. Giants -5 Indianapolis 0 N.Y. Giants 5 San Diego -2.5 Kansas City -7 Kansas City -4.5 Tennessee +3 Jacksonville 0 Jacksonville -3 St. Louis +0 Seattle 1 St. Louis 1 Cleveland -2.5 Baltimore -3 Baltimore -.5 Denver -4 Oakland 6 Denver 10 N.Y. Jets -4 New England -10 New England -6 Pittsburgh -4.5 Tampa Bay 1 Pittsburgh 5.5 ANALYSIS: Champion Tim is ready as usual to reach into the deep recesses of the mind and pull out infinite zen moments of clarity. Tim draws his cards... flips 'em over... to reveal... Champion Tim's Week 16 Picks Left Brain: SEATTLE, DALLAS Right Brain: JACKSONVILLE, BUFFALO send fan mail to: tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved