Special Friday Edition, December 27th

THE WEEK THAT WAS / WEEK SEVENTEEN PICKS Happy Holidays to all, and to all a Happy New Year! Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from week sixteen of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following: PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary. Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won. Miami at Minnesota Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Miami 29% 18% 3.3 47 50% 4% 6.8 100 17 Minnesota 45% 9% 4.0 72 55% 9% 6.7 94 24 Knock those Vikings out of the playoffs and then watch them play up to their potential. Gee. San Francisco at Arizona Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Francisco 53% 3% 3.2 80 47% 10% 6.3 97 29 Arizona 47% 13% 4.7 82 38% 0% 2.6 38 3 This game should have the proverbial asterix next to it since San Francisco were barely trying but still beat the Cardinals anyway. Philadelphia at Dallas Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Philadelphia 45% 10% 3.7 67 41% 15% 7.2 88 25 Dallas 47% 5% 3.6 63 27% 3% 2.0 21 0 Philadelphia defense is outstanding right now heading into the playoffs. McNabb's return may cause some problems perhaps? Buffalo at Green Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Buffalo 24% 4% 1.6 32 42% 2% 3.3 59 7 Green Bay 46% 7% 4.2 64 33% 3% 3.0 52 16 Ugliest game of the week and not just because I was backing the Bills. Who woulda thunk that Bledsoe would get sacked and fumble three times...by the same dude! Who woulda thunk that they would hold the Pack to ten measly points and still lose! Chicago at Carolina Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Chicago 33% 5% 2.6 47 22% 9% 3.7 42 0 Carolina 42% 5% 2.7 68 34% 5% 4.9 71 24 Yawn. Next. Detroit at Atlanta Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Detroit 33% 14% 4.1 66 25% 6% 3.3 33 3 Atlanta 47% 15% 4.7 77 48% 18% 9.5 141 36 Falcons let it rip on the Lions and move into playoff worthy position. Houston at Washington Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Houston 26% 4% 2.9 34 33% 0% 2.4 41 0 Washington 54% 25% 5.6 113 37% 11% 5.3 108 33 "See, I'm really a good coach" says Spurrier after beating up on the most hapless team in the league. Er, yeah Steve, try again by picking on someone a little tougher (and I don't mean Dallas this week). New Orleans at Cincinnati Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score New Orleans 36% 0% 1.8 42 33% 5% 4.1 76 6 Cincinnati 71% 21% 6.1 144 39% 2% 4.2 58 30 Well shiver me timbers! If my Bengals did not just for once this season lay a licking on a foe. Not like the Saints are our nemesis or anything (our nemesis is clearly Mr. Brown) but still mighty fine show by the Cincy troops. Bravo! N.Y. Giants at Indianapolis Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Giants 39% 9% 3.0 78 68% 17% 12.6 196 50 Indianapolis 31% 5% 2.6 47 48% 12% 7.3 110 23 Giants smoke the Colts and move into playoff position if they can knock off the Eagles this week. Could Fassel's force be a factor come the finish? San Diego at Kansas City Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score San Diego 46% 23% 5.6 96 43% 10% 5.7 102 28 Kansas City 30% 4% 2.3 39 48% 10% 8.1 119 23 Stats say the WRONG TEAM WON but then San Diego has been losing games they should have won for a couple of months now. Note the lack of a running game for the Chiefs with Holmes out -- maybe Priest Holmes is that good! Tennessee at Jacksonville Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Tennessee 51% 8% 4.2 82 54% 0% 4.7 120 33 Jacksonville 41% 18% 4.0 82 30% 2% 2.7 47 6 Blah, Jags suck. Mailed this one in and mailed Coughlin out (Jacksonville fans can only hope). Titans going good and only three years removed from the Super Bowl (and one yard away from a championship). St. Louis at Seattle Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score St. Louis 28% 7% 1.2 28 47% 0% 4.9 70 6 Seattle 39% 3% 3.0 69 56% 16% 8.7 156 39 Game changed methinks when Bulger got knocked out on the opening drive. Seattle another of the underachievers (see Minnesota) now playing up to snuff. Watch out Chargers! Cleveland at Baltimore Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Cleveland 38% 0% 2.0 46 50% 6% 5.8 102 18 Baltimore 51% 17% 5.0 89 36% 0% 4.3 73 19 Alas for Baltimore, the score was not the same as the stats projection. A tough defeat for the Ravens in that the win would have a) kept them in the playoff hunt and b) seen them go Over on the season win bets. Denver at Oakland Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Denver 72% 11% 4.5 150 38% 8% 4.7 58 20 Oakland 45% 11% 3.9 82 58% 6% 5.9 106 29 Oakland's the best in the league, even with a no-Deion, wounded secondary. NFL Officials already conspiring to get them in the playoffs with new "inappropriate sock height" calls on key plays. N.Y. Jets at New England Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score N.Y. Jets 40% 0% 3.3 50 51% 9% 7.8 131 34 New England 65% 9% 4.2 104 33% 0% 3.0 46 7 Jets polish off the Brady dreams, although in the NFL I suppose there's almost always a second chance, which the Patriots get this week hosting Miami. Me personally, I'd like to see New England make the playoffs. Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay Matchup Rush PSR Rush Big Rush Yds Rush EFR Pass PSR Pass Big Pass Yds Pass EFR Stats Score Pittsburgh 28% 3% 2.0 34 53% 19% 8.6 146 33 Tampa Bay 64% 21% 5.2 121 32% 6% 3.7 61 16 This game went down the drain for Bucs fans (and up the hill for Steeler stalwarts) when Brad Johnson was made inactive. BJ is a pro bowl player, and certainly a much superior QB to King or "Sack" Johnson. Okay, last week was a bit of a stinker. Clearly I am at my best only when the pressure's on. Where can the pressure come from? From within says the Zen Master. First up of course, is my old friend the O/D Machine: O/D Ranks Line Week 17 Away Line Home O/D Line Pick Value Philadelphia +2 N.Y. Giants 0 N.Y. Giants -2 Kansas City -7 Oakland -2 Kansas City 5 Atlanta +2.5 Cleveland 4 Atlanta 1.5 Baltimore -7.5 Pittsburgh -14 Pittsburgh -6.5 Carolina -7 New Orleans -3 Carolina 4 Cincinnati -7.5 Buffalo -3 Cincinnati 4.5 Dallas -6.5 Washington -7 Washington -.5 Miami +0 New England 8 Miami 8 Minnesota +3.5 Detroit 8 Minnesota 4.5 Tennessee +8 Houston 4 Houston -4 Jacksonville -8 Indianapolis -7 Jacksonville 1 Arizona -11 Denver -18 Denver -7 Green Bay -1 N.Y. Jets 8 Green Bay 9 Seattle -3 San Diego -3 0 Tampa Bay +6.5 Chicago 8 Tampa Bay 1.5 San Francisco -2 St. Louis -7 St. Louis -5 ANALYSIS: The O/D Ranks plays are the ones with a seven or more difference between the O/D Line and the actual line, so you're looking at Miami, Denver, Green Bay. Tim draws his cards... flips 'em over... to reveal... a full selection sheet with a pick for every single, solitary game! Champion Tim's Week 17 Picks New York Giants, Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore, Carolina, Cincinnati, Washington, New England, Detroit, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Denver, New York Jets, Seattle, Chicago, St. Louis send fan mail to: tim@twominutewarning.com Return to TwoMinuteWarning.com Copyright © 2002 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved