NFL Divisional Futures
Last time we looked at those rip-offs --I mean future bets-- on teams to win the Super Bowl and their respective conference. As I pointed out the rather hefty 50%+ rake on this type of bet makes it a daunting proposition unless you've got some guts.
Still, some of you did your homework and sent me your spreadsheets (make-up test available for those who missed it: NFL Futures worksheet) and incredibly enough a few even had seeming value on their odds. I'll recap those at some point, putting together a Tim's Gang consensus.
A more fun and perhaps even playable arena might be the odds of teams winning their division. Now this is a bet type that few places will offer, but I did a quick run around of some of the online books and found a few odds listed, so we'll use "the offshore line" here.
AFC East
| Team |
Tim's Odds |
% |
Actual |
% |
Value |
| Buffalo |
10 |
0.09 |
3.5 |
0.22 |
41% |
| Miami |
2.3 |
0.30 |
1 |
0.50 |
61% |
| NY Jets |
2.5 |
0.29 |
2.5 |
0.29 |
100% |
| New England |
2.1 |
0.32 |
2.2 |
0.31 |
103% |
| Total |
|
1.00 |
|
1.32 |
|
I see this as almost a three-way pickem between Miami, the Jets, and New England. The Bills lag a distant fourth. We're facing a still hefty 32% takeout on the actual odds, no value here for me.
AFC South
| Team |
Tim's Odds |
% |
Actual |
% |
Value |
| Indianapolis |
1.8 |
0.36 |
0.6 |
0.63 |
57% |
| Jacksonville |
4 |
0.20 |
4 |
0.20 |
100% |
| Houston |
25 |
0.04 |
15 |
0.06 |
62% |
| Tennessee |
1.5 |
0.40 |
1.2 |
0.45 |
88% |
| Total |
|
1.00 |
|
1.34 |
|
I'm not nearly as high on Indianapolis as the linemakers. Somehow I don't think 3/5 odds on a team that was 6-10 last season is all that generous. Titans are my pick to take the division, but can't make it to break-even value let alone my wager threshold.
AFC North
| Team |
Tim's Odds |
% |
Actual |
% |
Value |
| Cincinnati |
8 |
0.11 |
7 |
0.13 |
89% |
| Cleveland |
8 |
0.11 |
2.5 |
0.29 |
39% |
| Baltimore |
3.5 |
0.22 |
5 |
0.17 |
133% |
| Pittsburgh |
0.8 |
0.56 |
0.3 |
0.77 |
72% |
| Total |
|
1.00 |
|
1.35 |
|
Crikey! I might actually be able to find a bet. Everyone loves the Steelers of course (myself included, given I have them at 4/5 odds to win the division), but the public at large seem to loathe the Ravens all of a sudden. Sure they've lost a huge number of players, but they are only two years removed from being Super Bowl winners, will fare better at the QB spot in my estimation without Grbac, get Jamal Lewis back, and play the Browns and my Bungles twice. If I was going to further adjust the numbers I would make the Cincinnati/Cleveland odds higher!
AFC West
| Team |
Tim's Odds |
% |
Actual |
% |
Value |
| Denver |
2 |
0.33 |
1.4 |
0.42 |
80% |
| Kansas City |
6 |
0.14 |
3.5 |
0.22 |
64% |
| Oakland |
1.4 |
0.42 |
1.2 |
0.45 |
92% |
| San Diego |
8 |
0.11 |
4 |
0.20 |
56% |
| Total |
|
1.00 |
|
1.29 |
|
This is arguably the meannest, nastiest, most physical foursome in the NFL...should be fun to watch! Heated rivalries all (did you catch the news that when the league was discussing realignment the powers that be asked each team to list their biggest rival -- all the AFC West, including alum Seattle, picked Oakland!) and quite competitive in all likelihood.
So, my only pick in the AFC is Baltimore at 5/1
NFC East
| Team |
Tim's Odds |
% |
Actual |
% |
Value |
| Dallas |
12 |
0.08 |
5 |
0.17 |
46% |
| Philadelphia |
0.8 |
0.56 |
0.5 |
0.67 |
83% |
| NY Giants |
4 |
0.20 |
4.5 |
0.18 |
110% |
| Washington |
5 |
0.17 |
2.4 |
0.29 |
57% |
| Total |
|
1.00 |
|
1.31 |
|
Obviously I am making the Eagles my prohibitive favorite to win the East, but I do think everyone jumping on the Washington bandwagon is making a mistake. The Giants meanwhile appear to be getting shortchanged in the respect department and are a modest value by my line.
NFC South
| Team |
Tim's Odds |
% |
Actual |
% |
Value |
| Atlanta |
5 |
0.17 |
3.5 |
0.22 |
75% |
| Carolina |
20 |
0.05 |
10 |
0.09 |
52% |
| New Orleans |
5 |
0.17 |
3.5 |
0.22 |
75% |
| Tampa Bay |
0.6 |
0.63 |
0.3 |
0.77 |
81% |
| Total |
|
1.01 |
|
1.30 |
|
The Bucs are my "most likely division winner" at 3/5, but still not playable at the obscene 1/3 odds listed. Saints and Falcons both have a shot, but Tampa looks to good to challenge.
NFC North
| Team |
Tim's Odds |
% |
Actual |
% |
Value |
| Chicago |
3.5 |
0.22 |
2.5 |
0.29 |
78% |
| Detroit |
15 |
0.06 |
6 |
0.14 |
44% |
| Green Bay |
0.8 |
0.56 |
0.5 |
0.67 |
83% |
| Minnesota |
5 |
0.17 |
3.5 |
0.22 |
75% |
| Total |
|
1.01 |
|
1.32 |
|
I'm making a stand against the Bears, who are my best bet team to "bounce" in 2002. On the other hand I love the Packers, but then so does everyone. No value anywhere in any case.
NFC West
| Team |
Tim's Odds |
% |
Actual |
% |
Value |
| Arizona |
15 |
0.06 |
10 |
0.09 |
69% |
| St. Louis |
0.9 |
0.53 |
0.4 |
0.71 |
74% |
| San Francisco |
3 |
0.25 |
2 |
0.33 |
75% |
| Seattle |
5 |
0.17 |
5 |
0.17 |
100% |
| Total |
|
1.01 |
|
1.31 |
|
This was for me the hardest division to set odds on. I think the Rams are the best in the NFL, the 49ers are very good, the Seahawks have a lot going for them, and even the Cardinals could be decent (if they were in a softer division). Will be interesting to see how it shakes out in the West.
So in the NFC I get zero value picks meeting my minimum requirement of 125%, albeit the Giants come close and maybe I could find better odds on them someplace.
Now comes the fun part -- your turn! Attached to this page is a spreadsheet (an evil empire Microsoft Excel file) in which all the teams and actual lines are listed...all you need to do is fill in the yellow cells with your expectation of the team's chances of winning their division and everything blim-blam gets calculated.
One tip is to try and make your line ahead of looking at the actual odds, that way you won't let yourself be biased. Also, make your odds add up to 1.00 in each division.
Right click (and "save target as") to download:
NFL Divisional Futures Worksheet
Do the homework and email it back to me here for grading and possible inclusion in a Tim's Gang consensus line!
tim@twominutewarning.com
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