And so it begins...
The NFL preseason that is. This weekend we get the first two battle royales, one matching the new look (or should that be new hype) Washington Redskins against the San Francisco 49ers in Japan, and the other pitting the expansion Houston Texans against the New York Giants.
Since it falls on me to break apart these games for, ahem, wagering purposes, it's a good thing I have a couple of angles for just this kind of "guessing game" game.
Washington vs San Francisco (in Japan)
Let's see, this is Steve Spurrier's debut, taking over the Washington 'Skins who were 8-8 last season after a disastrous 0-5 start against the running Owens/Mariucci fisticuffs show (all right, it hasn't happened yet) over in San Fran. After poring over the local SF/DC newspapers for hours and hours, I've learned that the Niners will be playing Garcia briefly and then handing over the reins for the most part of the game to Rattay, who is eager to show he is worthy of the #2 QB spot and then...
That's how the typical preseason handicapping spiel goes
For Tim, preseason is a lark, a joke, and yet I find myself willing to wager on the San Francisco 49ers, but not because I have studied the likelihood of starters' playing time, coaches gameplan, blah blah blah. No rather just because playing the dog in a match-up of winless teams has been a decent way to go. (See Preseason Win Comparisons research).
Favor: San Francisco (+3) (An Angle Play)
Houston vs New York Giants
(in Canton, Ohio)
The sharper readers out there can probably take a stab at which way I'm going on this. Yup we have another game between 0-0 teams (enjoy it while you can Houston) and geez louise, darned if it's not those rascally Houston Texans who are the underdog.
Aside from the rumors that the outcome of this one has the old wink wink nudge nudge, I went back and did exhaustive research on past exhibition openers for expansion teams and found that Cleveland won 20-17 over Dallas (admittedly not covering) in 1999. Now some of you may be saying that "exhaustive research" might have looked at more than one team, but I happen to know that the last time we had expansion teams (in 1995) the NFL in all its wisdom had the two newbies play each other -- Jacksonville at Carolina was the Hall of Fame game -- so tell me brainiacs what we would learn if I took the trouble to go back and see who won?
No, I'll accept on blind faith (and one data point) that expansion teams do okay in the preseason opener.
More importantly, and what you have no doubt been reading up to this point for, Tim has to assign loyalties to a team for the 2002 season.
To make life more entertaining (read humorous) I tend to side with the squad which I think will be absolute rock bottom in the NFL standings by year's end. What this means of course is you can pencil in the Cincinnati Bengals until 2007 -- NO! JOKING! My Bengals were not even the worst in the NFL in:
2001 (that was Carolina)
or 2000 (that was San Diego)
or 1999 (Cleveland)
or 1998 -- well okay, they were tied for worst with Philly/Indy
or 1997 (Indianapolis)
or 1996 (New York Jets)
or 1995 (Jets again)
or 1994 (Houston Oilers)
or...okay they were the worst in 1993.
What that means is you would have to go back NINE YEARS to make the claim that the Bengals were the clear, undisputed, absolute rock bottom team in the league. However, this season it appears to my giant brain to be evident that the Bengalis will immediately escape from NFL cellar dweller status, by virtue of the Houston Texans, my "Team of Destiny" for 2002.
What's to like about the Texans?
- Bad nickname -- New York New Yorkers wouldn't have got very far
- Silly uniforms (Denver Jr?)
- Weak helmet (it's no Rams that's for sure)
- Hotshot rookie QB likely to get pummeled, and years later re-emerge for some other team as a superstar
- Best left tackle in football, who will probably be injured all year
- Chance to get in on the ground floor of a franchise and be able years later to claim you've been a fan since their first preseason game
SOLD!
Tim is firmly established as the Texans #1 Fan. Oh yeah,
Favor: Houston (+3) (An Angle Play)
Bonus Pick: Tease: Houston (+9) and San Francisco (+9)
(A Percentages Play -- see
Preseason Teaser Percentages)
