Become a football point spread expert
It's not that hard, people become proficient at making sound football picks every day.
Maybe you've been relying on touts to tell you who to bet your whole life, or maybe your own attempts to pick winners have been a little less than successful.
No worries, we're here to prove that some helpful tools and a new attitude can have you making NFL and NCAA selections that can compete with those high profile "sports betting personalities."
Free tools, columns, handicapping prediction engines
We offer all kinds of free handicapping resources updated weekly for the coming games:
ACTIVE FROM WEEK TWO TOOLS
A simulation engine that shows you the likelihood of one team covering.
Courtest of our friends at SportsInsights.com comes a sweet tool that shows you what percentage of bets are being placed on either side. Do you believe in the wisdom of crowds or prefer a contrarian view?
The game pages attempt to put a lot of the different factors for a game onto one page that you can peruse.
Our drive chart stats and play-by-play ratings are independently used to make projected scores.
The DC/TO combines drive stats with a touch of turnover difference theory.
The "Ultimate Prediction Machine" plays out every matchup on a drive by drive basis to compute confidence values for each team covering.
"Turnover Difference" theory has been a powerful handicapping method for over twenty years. Are turnovers the product of skill, or to some degree a function of luck?
CSM - "Contrarian Bridgejumping"
Cumulative spread margin looks at how teams have been performing on a points basis against the spread set on their games. Another favorite feature for contrarian thinkers.
Our Trends columnist doesn't throw out all kinds of different angles, but focuses on one time tested pattern in each week. The results? His plays have been 168-133 (56%) since the inception of the column.
Arguably the best research we've ever done, leading to methods that have been resoundingly successful when followed blindly. Injuries do matter in the NFL, but you have to know how to quantify them!
Inside The 20
Red Zone handicapping came into vogue with the arrival of this column at TMW -- what happens when you predict scores using ONLY the red zone stats for a team?
The origins of TMW were when we first started tracking drive by drive outcomes for teams back in 1997. Still a powerful handicapping factor, and a sentimental favorite of the staff.
Moving beyond the drive level, you head into play-by-play territory. We pioneered the concepts now more widely used, and our PBP ratings are a popular way of getting deeper into the details.
Not all downs are alike, and looking at past down-by-down performance for teams has potent implications on future performance.
Red Zone Stats
Straightforward breakouts of how teams are doing on offense, defense, and net in the always important red zone.
When you've been publishing research for a decade as we have, there are some huge archives to wander through. Here are some of the more popular historical pieces we've done.
ACTIVE in LATER WEEKS
TMW Past Performances
Our secret weapon for '06, combining the 'Week That Was' ratings into one nifty package.
The "Last Five Games UPM" as the name suggests uses a more recent view of a team's performance in the simulations.
The Falcon was a subscriber looking to handicap football in a similar fashion to how he analyzed a horse race, complete with "speed figures."
Taking regression to the numbers, this feature builds statistical models under a multi-stage scheme to predict future performance.
...so don't be shy, get on board the football handicapping train and start your own sports betting success story!
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