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At TwoMinuteWarning.com, we believe that to be successful betting on the NFL you need to have a disciplined approach that begins with only selecting meaningful data for your analysis. Too many people spend too much time looking at stats, records, histories that have no predictive value and no bearing on today's outcome.
We have created what we think is the complete handicapping package -- a thorough look at a game that comes at it from all relevant positions, and yet eliminates the noise of too much information. Our core handicapping components include:
Superior Data
We meticulously craft our own statistics and ratings for teams based on watching and charting every play of every game. From this we create new stats that more accurately measure each team's capabilities.
Play-By-Play Ratings
| Denver |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
| DEN - Offense |
41% |
9% |
3.7 |
72 |
49% |
9% |
6.1 |
95 |
| OAK - Defense |
-3% |
-1% |
-0.3 |
-8 |
-5% |
+0% |
-0.5 |
-5 |
| Denver - Projection |
38% |
8% |
3.4 |
64 |
44% |
9% |
5.6 |
90 |
Applying the data for wagering purposes
It's not enough to have great stats, the numbers have to point to which way to play.
Projected Score
| Team |
SCORE* |
Denver
Oakland |
16
29 |
* Home Field Advantage included in projected score
Simulating the full range of outcomes
No sport sees more planning and preparation for a game than football, but no sport ever forces a team to adjust its gameplan more quickly than in football based on what actually transpires. We created a simulation engine that plays out a game over 5,000 times to find the percentage likelihood of a team winning against the spread.
Simulation Results: NFL Week 14, 2000
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Cover % |
| Tennessee at Philadelphia |
+ 3 |
Philadelphia |
67 % |
Factoring in Turnovers
Turnovers are a critical handicapping factor, not just because their effect on a game is so strong --
Predictiveness of Factors in determining the outcome (10-yr sample)
| FACTOR |
HOME |
AWAY |
OVERALL |
VS THE
SPREAD |
| Fewer Turnovers |
83% |
72% |
78% |
75% |
| More Rushing Yards |
78% |
67% |
73% |
69% |
| Greater Time of Possession |
77% |
62% |
70% |
66% |
| More Total Yards |
75% |
60% |
68% |
64% |
| Higher 3rd Down Conversion |
75% |
59% |
68% |
63% |
| More First Downs |
73% |
57% |
66% |
61% |
...but also because they can distort the statistics that are used for making predictions. Only TwoMinuteWarning has done 18-year studies on turnovers and knows how to weight them for predicting future events.
| Away Team |
Line
(Home) |
Home Team |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| Arizona |
-5.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
1 |
-7 |
-6 |
|
ARI |
ARI |
| Oakland |
+4 |
San Diego |
2 |
-6 |
-4 |
|
|
|
| Atlanta |
-4 |
Indianapolis |
14 |
7 |
21 |
IND |
IND |
IND |
| Cincinnati |
-9 |
N.Y. Jets |
-17 |
-7 |
-24 |
CIN |
CIN |
CIN |
Understanding Motivation
No one doubts the importance of a team's motivation coming into a game in so far as what constitutes a sound wager. As well as having people who specialize in this aspect of handicapping --
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Atlanta at New Orleans: Saints are 3-1, Atlanta is 2-3, but real danger spot for New Orleans here: looming is a playoff rematch with the St. Louis Rams (5-0 and counting) and by all reports the Saints are looking ahead to the next game. Falcons should not be taken so lightly and have a good chance of an outright upset.
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...we have also set out now to quantify motivation -- to provide fixed numeric data standards that can be applied to an NFL contest to produce a better understanding of the likely forces at work on a team's psyche...
Performance Results 1991-2000
Home Team
Record |
Away Team
Record |
Won
(vs Spr) |
Lost
(vs Spr) |
Home
W% |
| Good |
Poor |
34 |
51 |
40.0 % |
Qualify Injuries
Injuries have an effect, but to what extent should they be factored into the handicapping equation? The public at large often over-reacts to a big name skill player going down, whereas they often miss the true significance of a "trench warrior" being out. Once again, here at TwoMinuteWarning we prefer to rely on the facts rather than hearsay and so we are quantifying injuries for their potential impact vs the spread.
Individual Player Match-ups
Finally it's worth breaking down the game based on individual players, particularly for the
action in the trenches. The NFL mantra has long been "whoever controls the line of scrimmage wins" and TwoMinuteWarning carefully crafts ratings for individual defensive players and offensive players (including linemen!) to get a sense of who will triumph in the blocking wars.
Tampa Bay
Def. Line |
Team |
Plays |
Stops |
Defeats |
Med
Yds |
Stop
Rate |
Pos |
PM Rtg |
| S.Rice |
TB |
51 |
41 |
23 |
0 |
80% |
DE |
74 |
| W.Sapp |
TB |
37 |
30 |
14 |
1 |
81% |
DT |
51 |
| A.McFarland |
TB |
41 |
29 |
13 |
1 |
70% |
DT |
50 |
| M.Jones |
TB |
26 |
19 |
8 |
1 |
73% |
DE |
32 |
These are the key components we rely on to take a stand...
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