The Week That Was -- review of last week's NFL outcomes

THE WEEK THAT WAS / NFL WEEK ONE
With commentary by Tim

Ah, my mateys, batton down the hatches, hoist the sails, and prepare to set sail for another wondrous journey into the vast oceans and unchartered worlds that beckon to us from this here National Football League...

Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:

PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.

Indianapolis at New England

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Indianapolis	71%	7%	4.8	120	45%	15%	8.3	109	30
New England	52%	18%	5.0	82	58%	15%	7.8	143	39

great game. more please!

Seattle at New Orleans

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Seattle	55%	5%	4.2	90	56%	10%	7.8	119	36
New Orleans	35%	10%	3.2	60	35%	5%	5.0	71	9

um, those folks with New Orleans as their sleeper pick for this season. Um, no.

Cincinnati at NY Jets

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cincinnati	39%	14%	3.7	78	57%	14%	8.5	128	24
NY Jets	74%	26%	7.1	158	55%	10%	7.3	120	49

My Bengalis have not a whit of defense after so many years of no offense. Jets 74% success rate running the ball is particularly obscene. On the bright side, Carson Palmer - didn't he do well!

Arizona at St. Louis

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Arizona	34%	22%	4.4	69	39%	6%	4.6	75	10
St. Louis	63%	27%	5.8	126	60%	3%	7.1	121	43

Introducing a new category of exclamation regarding the week-that-was....THE WRONG TEAM COVERED! Did they ever. This game was a wipeout by the numbers, but constant blunders by the Rams made it a nailbiter. Go Dennis Green Go! Go Emmitt Smith Go! Go all of us who have been written off as over the hill!

Tennessee at Miami

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tennessee	38%	11%	5.0	77	52%	0%	3.7	88	25
Miami	45%	10%	3.2	55	39%	2%	3.8	37	0

Now, is the problem in Miami 1) bad coaching, 2) Ricky Williams, or 3) Hurricane of the week? I opt for a bit of each, plus 4) Mighty Titans. Yeah, yeah, yeah the stat guys tell you it's all about passing, but if you can't scare the other team by running then passing becomes a whole heck of a lot harder.

Oakland at Pittsburgh

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Oakland	27%	9%	2.7	50	47%	7%	6.8	100	14
Pittsburgh	54%	6%	3.2	84	48%	4%	5.4	104	31

The WRONG TEAM COVERED. Raiders another team that needs to get on the ball rushing the football, but they do have that deep passing Al Davis loves going once more.

San Diego at Houston

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
San Diego	35%	6%	3.2	41	44%	19%	9.1	129	24
Houston	51%	3%	3.3	75	62%	7%	7.9	117	31

THE WRONG TEAM WON (+ COVERED)! Shocker of the week to some, but really, expecting a team which has never won more than what five games in a season to come through as a favorite seems dicey. Ash-tonishingly it wasn't the running game of Tomlinson that was so inspired, more the passing, particularly to one Mr. Gates.

Jacksonville at Buffalo

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Jacksonville	43%	9%	3.6	69	30%	5%	4.6	53	3
Buffalo	41%	6%	2.2	47	55%	4%	5.6	103	26

THE WRONG TEAM WON (+ COVERED)! Boy, when you blow three fourth down situations on the final drive and lose on the final play it's a stinking, rotting, festering defeat. Bad beginning for the Bills, but heck last year they won the opener like 49-0 so maybe it's a good thing? Are the Jags this year's Panthers?

Detroit at Chicago

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Detroit	30%	7%	2.1	30	41%	14%	6.5	96	14
Chicago	39%	6%	3.3	72	38%	10%	5.2	64	13

Yawn. Not my kind of deal, but hey to each his own. Both teams look like the goldfish that gets put into the shark tank, and we'll find out for Da Bears this week when they have to go play in Green Bay.

Baltimore at Cleveland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Baltimore	44%	0%	2.8	59	46%	5%	4.2	55	6
Cleveland	23%	7%	2.5	30	30%	12%	6.3	88	18

Ravens will not go anywhere without a passing game and right now they do not have one. Good for the Browns, and here's to Cleveland bouncing back in 2004 with a runner-up finish to my Bengals.

Tampa Bay at Washington

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tampa Bay	26%	0%	2.0	40	36%	2%	3.3	60	3
Washington	39%	5%	4.2	63	37%	4%	5.2	79	22

Gibbs-Riggins. Gibbs-Portis. Give it or take a decade or two. Ah, but not when you see the numbers and a piddling 63 Rush EFR. Bucs in all kinds of trouble. Ya think they should maybe sign that McCardell guy?

Atlanta at San Francisco

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Atlanta	40%	7%	3.3	70	44%	15%	5.3	100	23
San Francisco	25%	13%	3.4	54	41%	4%	5.6	94	18

Call me stupid, but Michael Vick doesn't even come close to Culpepper. Falcons had every advantage in this one (gee their head coach was the old def. coordinator at SF so he had the playbook for crying out loud!), and barely passed the test, although the WRONG TEAM COVERED.

Dallas at Minnesota

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Dallas	40%	9%	2.3	72	45%	8%	6.7	113	23
Minnesota	65%	15%	5.0	111	63%	13%	10.5	186	56

Um, Vikings are the team to beat in 2004.

NY Giants at Philadelphia

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
NY Giants	45%	17%	6.6	95	35%	12%	5.8	85	15
Philadelphia	39%	18%	4.6	67	68%	13%	8.2	163	48

Um, Eagles are the second team to beat in 2004.

Kansas City at Denver

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Kansas City	65%	17%	5.4	131	28%	3%	3.7	37	7
Denver	51%	21%	6.1	115	48%	10%	6.8	90	34

Um, Denver is the 3rd team to beat in 2004. (since they stopped paying me by the word my output has curiously diminished). Think Champ Bailey helps out on defense? Against a top passing team with one heck of a stud running back attracting attention, and they hold the Chiefs to 37 EFR! Bailey is a steal for Portis. As Shanahan has shown repeatedly, he can plug any running back in there and get huge numbers.

Green Bay at Carolina

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Green Bay	43%	2%	3.3	67	46%	4%	4.1	88	17
Carolina	23%	0%	2.8	46	48%	12%	5.5	104	22

THE WRONG TEAM WON (AND COVERED). Startling information to end the day. I say Carolina is going down, down, down. As followers of this space from last year know, they were frequent "WRONG TEAM WON" winners...that must even out in the great cosmic luck rationing.

ATTENTION! ATTENTION! ATTENTION! ARRIVERDERCI!!
You might think Tim is just a windbag without any use for foretelling the wondrous future. Wrong! The clowns who run this joint have had me do actual, real, bonafide, not made up, not plagiarized, not copied off the back of a cereal box, RESEARCH on these doohickey numbers of WTW fame. Dang if they don't tell us something after all... see Tim's Research Project

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