THE WEEK THAT WAS / NFL WEEK THIRTEEN
With commentary by Tim
Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
San Francisco at St. Louis
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| San Francisco |
37% |
4% |
2.3 |
51 |
36% |
4% |
3.8 |
32 |
0 |
| St. Louis |
56% |
13% |
4.1 |
96 |
54% |
11% |
5.8 |
94 |
29 |
"Strangers in the night, exchanging glances, strangers in the night, salary cap romances..." Um, yeah. The 49ers need to work on that TSP report and have it on my desk first thing tomorrow. The Rams? Heck, they will win the division after all this.
Buffalo at Miami
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Buffalo |
37% |
10% |
3.2 |
58 |
41% |
12% |
7.2 |
117 |
28 |
| Miami |
50% |
12% |
4.0 |
92 |
44% |
6% |
5.5 |
70 |
15 |
Let me give my friends in Miami a tip: first of all the Heat are going much further this year than the Dolphins, and secondly, turning the ball over seven times is unlikely to help your cause. Buffalo? Ya got lucky budd.
Carolina at New Orleans
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Carolina |
41% |
7% |
2.6 |
62 |
55% |
15% |
8.0 |
135 |
37 |
| New Orleans |
30% |
10% |
3.1 |
40 |
37% |
12% |
5.2 |
90 |
10 |
Panthers are becoming quite the story and team du jour. From 1-7 to the playoffs, and from there they might cause some damage in the NFC!
Houston at NY Jets
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Houston |
42% |
8% |
2.8 |
69 |
37% |
7% |
4.3 |
48 |
3 |
| NY Jets |
61% |
22% |
5.8 |
116 |
50% |
0% |
4.3 |
96 |
35 |
Feelgood feelings in Houston are no more. The team is in the drink. As for the Jets, we will find out how good they are this week in Pittsburgh (methinks, the verdict will be not all that hot after all).
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Atlanta |
50% |
18% |
5.8 |
100 |
22% |
6% |
2.3 |
2 |
0 |
| Tampa Bay |
57% |
14% |
4.8 |
107 |
44% |
4% |
4.0 |
64 |
28 |
Falcons are pretenders, and the Bucs would love I'm sure a rubber match in the playoffs. Still, Tampa's got its work cut out to get there.
Cincinnati at Baltimore
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Cincinnati |
50% |
13% |
4.0 |
91 |
64% |
19% |
9.3 |
156 |
47 |
| Baltimore |
56% |
19% |
5.6 |
115 |
53% |
3% |
5.2 |
87 |
20 |
Bengals WIN! Bengals WIN! Believe it or not, Cincy's only one game back for the last wild card spot. Ravens are postseason roadkill I would imagine to the big three of the AFC.
Minnesota at Chicago
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Minnesota |
68% |
27% |
6.6 |
145 |
53% |
12% |
6.3 |
87 |
33 |
| Chicago |
37% |
14% |
4.1 |
68 |
45% |
6% |
4.9 |
105 |
22 |
The WRONG TEAM WON! Well, I don't know about that. Sure looked like Mr. Hutchinson was in control and that all Chicago's been needing this season is a genuine average quarterback.
New England at Cleveland
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| New England |
50% |
16% |
4.2 |
103 |
44% |
14% |
7.7 |
100 |
32 |
| Cleveland |
41% |
6% |
3.0 |
70 |
43% |
10% |
5.8 |
80 |
13 |
New England cruises. Cleveland loses.
Arizona at Detroit
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Arizona |
37% |
11% |
3.1 |
70 |
35% |
2% |
3.3 |
24 |
0 |
| Detroit |
56% |
16% |
6.0 |
106 |
37% |
14% |
6.3 |
79 |
28 |
My man Dennis Green has gone into some sort of mental cloudiness phase. Why on earth did he bench McCown when he had the team 4-5. Three ugly defeats later he may be back to his senses, and the Cards should pound on the Niners this week.
Tennessee at Indianapolis
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Tennessee |
37% |
21% |
4.8 |
75 |
36% |
13% |
5.4 |
63 |
15 |
| Indianapolis |
44% |
24% |
6.1 |
96 |
70% |
24% |
11.9 |
186 |
48 |
Has there ever been such an offensive display as the Colts are putting on? 51, 41, 41, 49 points in the last four weeks. Somehow though I get the feeling that New England will make it hurt again in the playoffs.
Kansas City at Oakland
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Kansas City |
64% |
6% |
4.7 |
100 |
62% |
16% |
9.7 |
164 |
51 |
| Oakland |
22% |
11% |
3.4 |
44 |
51% |
12% |
7.7 |
137 |
24 |
Chiefs barely won this game but had the Ray-duhs throttled on the stats side.
Denver at San Diego
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Denver |
32% |
8% |
2.5 |
52 |
37% |
14% |
6.8 |
67 |
14 |
| San Diego |
51% |
6% |
3.4 |
88 |
24% |
3% |
2.9 |
31 |
9 |
A big time game, and the WRONG TEAM WON! Jake was not at his best, and the rumbling has started in Denver. Maybe it's the system: just as any RB seems to pile up yards behind the line, every QB seems to struggle (take a look at how well Griese is doing now in Tampa). Bolts pass a big test.
NY Giants at Washington
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| NY Giants |
26% |
0% |
2.5 |
46 |
32% |
4% |
3.6 |
57 |
11 |
| Washington |
57% |
17% |
5.0 |
111 |
72% |
4% |
6.5 |
168 |
44 |
If there is something to be learned, it's that when a rookie QB looks awful and continues to play anyway, the team is to be bet against. Heavily. 5-2 to 5-11? Yup.
Green Bay at Philadelphia
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Green Bay |
50% |
6% |
2.7 |
72 |
40% |
6% |
5.4 |
81 |
12 |
| Philadelphia |
33% |
19% |
4.4 |
71 |
57% |
17% |
8.9 |
157 |
45 |
Marquee matchup was over quick. Philly are the beasts of the NFC.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Pittsburgh |
46% |
12% |
4.2 |
80 |
52% |
14% |
8.8 |
138 |
37 |
| Jacksonville |
47% |
3% |
2.9 |
67 |
48% |
13% |
8.6 |
122 |
26 |
Jags made it tight, but Pittsburgh was in control.
Dallas at Seattle
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Dallas |
51% |
19% |
6.3 |
103 |
48% |
8% |
5.9 |
100 |
19 |
| Seattle |
40% |
7% |
4.0 |
85 |
58% |
14% |
9.4 |
160 |
50 |
Razzle Dazzle, and yes, the WRONG TEAM WON! Seattle should be ashamed to have lost this one and it may cost them dearly.
Also see:
Week That Was, Week 12
Week That Was, Week 11
Week That Was, Week 10
Week That Was, Week 9
Week That Was, Week 8
Week That Was, Week 7
Week That Was, Week 6
Week That Was, Week 5
Week That Was, Week 4
Week That Was, Week 3
Week That Was, Week 2
Week That Was, Week 1
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