The Week That Was -- review of last week's NFL outcomes

THE WEEK THAT WAS / NFL WEEK FOURTEEN
With commentary by Tim

Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:

PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.

Oakland at Atlanta

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Oakland	73%	17%	5.6	147	44%	7%	5.6	93	36
Atlanta	55%	9%	4.3	95	44%	4%	5.4	92	21

Hmm. The WRONG TEAM WON. But how you may well ask? The final score was a 35-10 throttling and the Raiders were outgained. I guess they did have a higher yards per play average. Whoopee.

Seattle at Minnesota

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Seattle	45%	13%	4.4	77	60%	11%	8.7	139	32
Minnesota	50%	12%	3.9	88	58%	14%	9.0	144	41

The WRONG TEAM WON #2 (and wait, it gets better!). This one I can buy. What's with these offensive co-ordinators calling for HB/WR pass plays?? I mean if you have a basic advantage, not to mention a QB as good as Culpepper, what's with the trick plays? If you are Miami, by all means run double-reverse, lateral, halfback options. Minnesota? No.

Cincinnati at New England

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cincinnati	56%	9%	4.1	84	61%	13%	7.6	130	25
New England	61%	8%	3.7	111	62%	15%	9.5	174	58

Um, I guess it was kind of fun seeing Kitna, but my Bengals ain't ready for no Patriots at this juncture.

Chicago at Jacksonville

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Chicago	33%	0%	1.4	20	30%	8%	4.3	58	0
Jacksonville	33%	11%	3.0	51	35%	6%	4.7	78	24

Yawn.

NY Giants at Baltimore

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
NY Giants	33%	5%	2.5	47	33%	13%	5.8	63	3
Baltimore	41%	9%	3.9	65	45%	11%	5.3	116	34

Eli Manning I fear is witnessing the full force of Karma. By his refusal to go play in lovely San Diego (and I am not being sarcastic for once, it truly is a lovely place), he has brought down the bad ju-ju and needs to cleanse something, somehow to right his balance. Meanwhile he will get creamed by all these fierce defenses. (Baltimore? I mean come on, that's a mismatch!)

Indianapolis at Houston

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Indianapolis	39%	7%	3.7	60	59%	5%	7.4	148	39
Houston	48%	19%	5.2	107	46%	0%	4.8	73	16

A minor hiccup on the road to playoff do-or-die for the Colts. Funny how the Texans are so much more capable at home than away.

Cleveland at Buffalo

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cleveland	17%	0%	1.1	17	17%	0%	-0.6	-18	0
Buffalo	53%	14%	4.9	100	35%	3%	3.4	45	28

Dem's some ugly looking offensive numbers for Cleveland. A negative passing effectiveness. Zero big gains of any kind. Buffalo ROCKS!

New Orleans at Dallas

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New Orleans	40%	6%	3.0	54	42%	11%	6.2	84	14
Dallas	48%	15%	4.4	100	30%	8%	4.0	57	17

The WRONG TEAM WON #3. Parcells may be ready to quit. Not that the Saints are actually all that bad. Heck with the new coach they will have for next season they might be making a playoff run. Still, this game was Big D's and they tossed it up.

Detroit at Green Bay

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Detroit	48%	15%	4.9	89	25%	4%	3.1	62	11
Green Bay	44%	3%	4.0	72	36%	5%	4.6	89	24

Pack not convincing me that they will play well against the big boys come January.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
NY Jets	46%	9%	3.3	75	39%	6%	5.1	51	3
Pittsburgh	35%	18%	4.3	78	50%	12%	6.0	92	29

Steelers steely. Jets jumpy.

Miami at Denver

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Miami	36%	9%	3.1	68	33%	3%	3.6	58	3
Denver	44%	13%	5.2	102	48%	12%	6.2	96	35

Hmm. Instead of a 32 point margin of victory, it was three measly points (and I would have got away with it if not for those meddling kids!)

San Francisco at Arizona

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
San Francisco	42%	17%	3.7	76	40%	6%	5.2	100	20
Arizona	48%	8%	3.0	92	44%	7%	6.6	104	31

The WRONG TEAM WON #4. SF has two wins, both against the Cards. My opinion of Dennis Green is sinking.

Tampa Bay at San Diego

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tampa Bay	35%	5%	2.1	35	45%	13%	6.8	90	8
San Diego	51%	14%	4.5	89	53%	4%	8.1	92	29

Buc-O's made it close, but once again cannot seem to pull out wins anymore. Of course, the NFC being what it is, at 5-8 they are still very much in the playoff hunt!! HA HA HA!

St. Louis at Carolina

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
St. Louis	38%	5%	3.1	57	39%	12%	6.4	12	0
Carolina	25%	11%	3.4	57	38%	9%	5.5	82	28

Now St. Louis, yes, that is the end of the contender run for them. Rebuilding time baby. And those Carolina Panthers? SUPER BOWL BOUND!

Philadelphia at Washington

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Philadelphia	31%	13%	4.2	56	38%	10%	7.0	92	17
Washington	52%	4%	3.5	84	39%	6%	5.0	72	18

The WRONG TEAM WON #5. Maybe the halfback pass play isn't a bad call when you have a certified bad decision maker like Ramsey as your QB. That pass late in the game was simply mind-bogglingly awful.

Kansas City at Tennessee

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Kansas City	52%	17%	6.3	121	42%	9%	7.3	105	28
Tennessee	54%	18%	4.5	90	54%	18%	8.1	143	43

The WRONG TEAM WON #6. Great game to watch. Thumbs up says Tim!

Also see:
Week That Was, Week 13
Week That Was, Week 12
Week That Was, Week 11
Week That Was, Week 10
Week That Was, Week 9
Week That Was, Week 8
Week That Was, Week 7
Week That Was, Week 6
Week That Was, Week 5
Week That Was, Week 4
Week That Was, Week 3
Week That Was, Week 2
Week That Was, Week 1

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