The Week That Was -- review of last week's NFL outcomes

THE WEEK THAT WAS / NFL WEEK FIFTEEN
With commentary by Tim

Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:

PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.

Pittsburgh at NY Giants

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Pittsburgh	43%	13%	4.1	82	56%	22%	9.5	134	31
NY Giants	60%	17%	4.1	100	58%	4%	7.1	133	40

The WRONG TEAM WON! Eli was good for a change. Don't get excited though, they were connecting on short passes, but still nada when it comes to deep balls to the Wideouts.

Washington at San Francisco

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Washington	37%	10%	3.0	57	46%	7%	7.4	125	28
San Francisco	27%	11%	3.0	33	32%	0%	5.1	45	3

Gee, the head coach almost leaves midweek for a college job, relents and decides to stick it out so as to force the team to buy out his contract, and what do you know the 49ers are unprepared for the game at hand.

Carolina at Atlanta

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Carolina	36%	0%	2.4	52	57%	10%	7.6	142	34
Atlanta	48%	23%	4.9	102	29%	6%	3.2	32	7

The WRONG TEAM WON! And this could be costly indeed as it may be the difference between making the playoffs or watching Desperate Housewives.

Houston at Chicago

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Houston	39%	9%	2.8	63	40%	13%	6.9	96	25
Chicago	30%	4%	2.0	30	25%	3%	3.2	28	0

New rule: after surprisingly good effort from a sub QB, expect his stock to plummet in the following weeks. Jeff George anyone?

Buffalo at Cincinnati

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Buffalo	26%	3%	1.8	30	35%	0%	3.9	74	3
Cincinnati	58%	10%	4.8	100	38%	6%	3.7	55	19

The WRONG TEAM WON! I blinked when I saw this. Sure seemed like my Bengalis were getting pounded. You take away two defensive TD's however and this might have been different.

San Diego at Cleveland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
San Diego	50%	4%	3.8	84	42%	14%	11.8	114	28
Cleveland	44%	14%	4.3	72	13%	3%	3.6	17	3

This game all came down to two plays in the early going. After recovering a muffed punt, Cleveland had first and goal at the five in the snowstorm. Gee, let's surpise 'em with the pass. Gee, it was intercepted. That and a roughing the punter call after the Browns stopped the next drive and it was all over.

Minnesota at Detroit

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Minnesota	36%	18%	4.1	81	56%	17%	8.6	119	29
Detroit	60%	16%	4.5	100	48%	11%	7.5	100	28

Excitement galore in Detroit. Extra point fiasco. What's with these long snappers? I mean, how hard is it really? It was a dome for crying out loud!

Jacksonville at Green Bay

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Jacksonville	38%	14%	4.9	80	42%	12%	5.9	115	27
Green Bay	38%	14%	4.0	61	60%	10%	7.9	125	30

The WRONG TEAM WON! Somewhere over the years, Favre seems to have lost accountability for throwing so many gosh darn interceptions. He is a good quarterback, no doubt, but he does make some highly questionable throws from time to time too (not that all the INT's in this one were his fault exactly).

Seattle at NY Jets

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Seattle	65%	9%	3.8	104	57%	3%	5.0	100	26
NY Jets	62%	18%	5.7	107	70%	17%	10.5	199	59

NFC West is a joke. Arizona is the best team methinks, but losing to San Franciso twice undermines that thought.

Dallas at Philadelphia

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Dallas	30%	8%	3.0	42	45%	3%	4.7	70	3
Philadelphia	59%	15%	4.2	100	44%	3%	5.3	92	34

Ouch. Owens Out for season. Ouch.

St. Louis at Arizona

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
St. Louis	30%	10%	2.2	50	35%	7%	3.9	66	3
Arizona	38%	8%	3.3	64	55%	8%	6.9	131	37

Rams are pitiful and yet they still have as good a chance as any of the NFC wildcarders to make the playoffs.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New Orleans	40%	10%	3.5	63	39%	14%	4.7	96	18
Tampa Bay	44%	12%	4.7	76	50%	4%	5.5	91	23

The WRONG TEAM WON! Can you say "Big Choke Job?" Tampa sure can. This marks the second straight year since the SB win that the Bucs have seriously underachieved.

Denver at Kansas City

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Denver	61%	29%	5.5	142	35%	8%	5.0	66	18
Kansas City	50%	8%	4.5	75	59%	15%	9.3	174	51

Maybe it is time for a new coach in Denver.

Tennessee at Oakland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tennessee	40%	5%	2.5	45	50%	11%	7.1	125	23
Oakland	33%	5%	2.3	38	47%	20%	9.0	135	30

Teams were going nowhere, but at least it was a fun game in the Arena league this week.

Baltimore at Indianapolis

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Baltimore	60%	4%	5.6	92	41%	5%	4.6	74	11
Indianapolis	31%	5%	3.1	59	51%	14%	7.3	134	38

Ravens are not for real. May not even make it to the first round.

New England at Miami

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New England	54%	11%	4.5	97	51%	9%	5.0	69	14
Miami	55%	6%	3.0	116	40%	2%	4.0	76	27

Go FIN FANATICS! (whoops, might I have mistaken mascots?) Three cheers for Miami. Now does Brady look so infallible? Colts-Saints Super Bowl anyone?

Also see:
Week That Was, Week 14
Week That Was, Week 13
Week That Was, Week 12
Week That Was, Week 11
Week That Was, Week 10
Week That Was, Week 9
Week That Was, Week 8
Week That Was, Week 7
Week That Was, Week 6
Week That Was, Week 5
Week That Was, Week 4
Week That Was, Week 3
Week That Was, Week 2
Week That Was, Week 1

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