The Week That Was -- review of last week's NFL outcomes

THE WEEK THAT WAS / NFL WEEK SEVENTEEN
With commentary by Tim

Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:

PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.

NY Jets at St. Louis

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
NY Jets	50%	21%	4.8	92	38%	0%	3.4	71	10
St. Louis	36%	5%	2.4	47	54%	18%	10.6	138	37

Don't count those Rams out yet. Heck they might even knock off the Seahawks in the first round. Jets? Um, not going to go far in the AFC methinks.

San Francisco at New England

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
San Francisco	22%	6%	3.5	38	46%	3%	4.7	87	9
New England	57%	18%	6.2	117	52%	11%	6.1	122	42

Pats play their starters for large chunks just to finish in good form. Three cheers. Niners, well they are warming up for the spring flag football season.

Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cincinnati	54%	9%	3.9	91	42%	11%	5.8	107	33
Philadelphia	50%	25%	5.0	100	37%	9%	4.0	51	8

Eagles rest everyone and go through the motions. Boo. It's hard to fault the strategy, but why not just announce a forfeit?

Minnesota at Washington

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Minnesota	33%	11%	2.8	61	48%	6%	5.3	97	14
Washington	53%	7%	3.9	93	51%	14%	6.7	113	37

Yikes Vikes! And to think, they made the playoffs!

New Orleans at Carolina

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New Orleans	32%	8%	4.0	59	40%	19%	7.4	111	25
Carolina	50%	7%	2.5	71	40%	10%	4.7	91	20

This was not supposed to happen. The miracle turnaround from 1-7 to serious NFC contender for the Panthers met those, juggernauts, the New Orleans Saints. And to think, the Saints didn't make the playoffs despite winning four straight at the end.

Miami at Baltimore

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Miami	50%	15%	5.0	105	30%	7%	5.5	47	6
Baltimore	51%	14%	4.0	86	49%	4%	5.9	114	38

The wrong team covered, but the Ravens head home after missing the playoffs.

Cleveland at Houston

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cleveland	35%	10%	4.1	64	46%	7%	7.1	86	15
Houston	60%	20%	5.1	124	38%	0%	2.9	63	24

The WRONG TEAM WON! Shocking news, but I think the Browns are feeling like Holcomb and Suggs can be the missing offensive pieces from this recent debacle of a year. Where does leave Jeff Garcia? Out in the cold. Houston missed a chance to finish at .500 for the first time ever as the Texans. Oh well, there's always next year. Oh wait, they play in a tough division in the AFC.

Pittsburgh at Buffalo

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Pittsburgh	40%	5%	4.0	62	32%	11%	4.9	46	0
Buffalo	54%	18%	3.6	118	48%	6%	5.3	70	31

Egads! The WRONG TEAM WON! And Buffalo got knocked onto their behinds and sit through the post-season. Here's a thought: when a team is resting its starters, but the QB going was the original starting QB, they might not be pushovers.

Green Bay at Chicago

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Green Bay	35%	4%	2.2	39	53%	23%	12.5	196	43
Chicago	62%	7%	4.0	107	40%	3%	3.5	47	16

Packers wanted this one for revenge. Got it.

Detroit at Tennessee

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Detroit	50%	8%	3.9	84	50%	10%	6.2	107	28
Tennessee	33%	8%	4.0	66	38%	9%	6.5	99	21

The WRONG TEAM WON! Meaningless as it was.

Atlanta at Seattle

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Atlanta	56%	16%	5.5	102	51%	3%	4.8	81	16
Seattle	52%	19%	3.9	123	56%	3%	5.6	100	37

Seattle barely escaped with a win which doesn't bode well for their playoff hopes.

Tampa Bay at Arizona

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tampa Bay	20%	10%	3.1	40	36%	8%	5.1	63	12
Arizona	43%	3%	3.4	53	28%	0%	2.6	49	11

The WRONG TEAM WON! Ew. Sure seems like Gruden has lost that wunder-boy aura. Now just scowling boy. Bucs are bad, but Cards will be 9-7 in 2005 and in the playoffs -- you watch my man Dennis turn it around in AZ.

Kansas City at San Diego

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Kansas City	55%	5%	3.5	90	49%	11%	6.2	80	11
San Diego	41%	14%	4.7	96	45%	13%	7.2	125	42

San Diego another team with a good QB for this situation, Mr. Flutie. Kansas City defense no better this year. That Johnson guy makes for a crowded backfield in KC though with Priest and Blaylock. Something's gotta give there.

Indianapolis at Denver

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Indianapolis	20%	7%	2.2	26	46%	4%	5.9	85	8
Denver	52%	15%	5.3	97	51%	16%	7.7	141	41

Indy not giving anything away and gets the real one this time at home. Can Jake fight off critics by outplaying Peyton when it counts?

Jacksonville at Oakland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Jacksonville	39%	6%	2.8	54	40%	3%	5.3	83	21
Oakland	55%	7%	4.5	89	25%	5%	3.5	23	3

Raiders just awful. The Black Hole is right. Al Davis needs some new ideas.

Dallas at NY Giants

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Dallas	51%	16%	4.5	90	51%	6%	5.9	91	21
NY Giants	52%	8%	3.9	96	50%	7%	5.6	93	28

Thrilling game that came down to the end and a fitting way to end the season. Eli gives hope to Giants fans for 2005.

Also see:
Week That Was, Week 16
Week That Was, Week 15
Week That Was, Week 14
Week That Was, Week 13
Week That Was, Week 12
Week That Was, Week 11
Week That Was, Week 10
Week That Was, Week 9
Week That Was, Week 8
Week That Was, Week 7
Week That Was, Week 6
Week That Was, Week 5
Week That Was, Week 4
Week That Was, Week 3
Week That Was, Week 2
Week That Was, Week 1

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