The Week That Was -- review of last week's NFL outcomes

THE WEEK THAT WAS / NFL WEEK THREE
With commentary by Tim

Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:

PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.

New Orleans at St. Louis

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New Orleans	45%	16%	4.8	93	45%	11%	7.3	125	33
St. Louis	53%	13%	5.2	106	45%	5%	6.0	109	32

Nip and Tuck, a great game...unless you're a Rams fan. McAlister who? And a bravo to old man Horn.

Pittsburgh at Miami

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Pittsburgh	28%	16%	4.0	52	37%	13%	6.5	91	21
Miami	27%	3%	1.6	37	41%	6%	4.8	64	3

Ricky Williams, please come back, please. Steeler defense steel-like versus the Clowns, um Dolphins. ("Miami Clowns" has a nice ring to it, don't you think?)

Chicago at Minnesota

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Chicago	58%	14%	4.6	103	44%	8%	6.1	113	26
Minnesota	52%	13%	4.1	82	51%	17%	9.7	154	45

Ya don't want to face the Vikings in Minny the week after they've been made angry...unless you're a darn good football team. Chicago not at the darn good level yet.

Cleveland at NY Giants

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cleveland	60%	22%	5.3	117	44%	3%	3.8	63	15
NY Giants	63%	7%	3.9	116	55%	14%	9.4	144	48

Whomp! That was the sound of injuries making this one a laugher before it started.

Arizona at Atlanta

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Arizona	39%	9%	2.8	60	50%	5%	4.8	76	13
Atlanta	35%	14%	6.8	67	39%	7%	4.0	71	16

My man Dennis Green will make sure 'Zona shows up every week. Count on it. On the other hand, Mr. Vick ~oooh~ don't count on him passing a team to a championship ~shiver~

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Baltimore	51%	21%	7.4	112	40%	10%	6.4	85	26
Cincinnati	44%	16%	4.2	80	43%	5%	5.0	81	17

Ravens doing the usual number. Defend like heck and run the ball as much as possible. Works fine against a team with a pseudo-rookie QB like Palmer. My Bengals would be better in the short term with Kitna, no doubt. Long term too maybe!

Philadelphia at Detroit

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Philadelphia	35%	12%	3.1	76	53%	11%	7.6	115	32
Detroit	44%	6%	4.2	77	31%	4%	3.6	73	11

Detroit, congratulations on the 2-0 beginning. Very nice. Now, may I introduce you to a real football team?

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Jacksonville	43%	17%	4.2	86	41%	4%	5.1	75	21
Tennessee	37%	7%	4.0	62	41%	3%	4.4	58	6

Never underestimate defense in the NFL. (I always do). Jags are going down this week in Peyton's place (well, all right, they're at home, but they're still going down baby).

Houston at Kansas City

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Houston	36%	8%	3.0	60	36%	17%	6.8	83	9
Kansas City	47%	16%	3.8	86	54%	6%	5.9	112	36

Alert! Alert! The WRONG TEAM WON! What'cha talking about Willis? I thought you had that 'stopping the other team' problem figured out by now, no? Sure don't look like it.

San Diego at Denver

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
San Diego	35%	6%	2.4	61	31%	3%	3.4	57	3
Denver	23%	5%	1.7	33	49%	11%	8.1	141	35

This one wasn't close on the stats score front. Next week in Tampa won't be close either for the Broncos, I see another bludgeoning in Tampa's future. How long is Gruden safe?

Green Bay at Indianapolis

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Green Bay	50%	10%	3.2	80	57%	6%	7.4	126	23
Indianapolis	54%	0%	2.8	77	61%	20%	9.1	174	52

Oh yeah. If every NFL game was like this, that'd be okay with me. Who doesn't love an offense where one out of every five passing plays is a big gain! I'm calling it in week three: this is Dungy's year.

San Francisco at Seattle

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
San Francisco	22%	6%	2.6	33	40%	3%	3.5	54	3
Seattle	50%	8%	3.0	86	54%	11%	8.0	131	35

49ers gave it the 'college try' in the first couple of games and even covered against the line both times in defeat. This week they just looked like 'college'.

Tampa Bay at Oakland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tampa Bay	47%	4%	4.0	69	42%	12%	6.8	100	15
Oakland	56%	13%	5.0	100	50%	13%	7.0	121	40

I reckon I said here some seven days ago that Tampa Bay might just be the worst team in football. I'm a saying now that Tampa Bay IS the worst team in the football. Ray-Dars! Ray-Duhs! Either way Oaktown is back.

Dallas at Washington

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Dallas	33%	5%	1.9	47	46%	19%	8.6	134	31
Washington	44%	8%	3.3	60	44%	8%	5.5	102	20

Who could believe that Parcells could manufacture wins without a rushing game and with a so old QB? True coaching genius my friends, true coaching genius.

Also see:
Week That Was, Week 2
Week That Was, Week 1

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