The Week That Was -- review of last week's NFL outcomes

THE WEEK THAT WAS / NFL WEEK FOUR
With commentary by Tim

Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:

PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cincinnati	62%	19%	5.0	111	43%	5%	4.8	82	16
Pittsburgh	55%	18%	4.0	105	55%	10%	6.8	144	49

Ah, it's tough being a Bengals fan right now. It's plain as day that the team would be doing better with Kitna in there, but there's a sense that down the line maybe this Palmer kid can be special too. In the meantime, Cincy is a roadbump in the NFL monster truck rally.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Indianapolis	66%	8%	5.0	112	59%	3%	7.4	146	48
Jacksonville	35%	6%	3.1	54	55%	7%	7.1	126	21

Hello Jacksonville, nice defense you got there. Offense not too shabby either. You're 3-0? Congratulations. Now SIT DOWN! and let a real Super Bowl worthy team take center stage.

Oakland at Houston

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Oakland	65%	15%	7.5	145	41%	8%	5.7	61	15
Houston	56%	14%	4.5	91	48%	20%	8.9	148	48

Raiders flopped under the new QB Collins in Houston. Texans' passing stupendous.

New England at Buffalo

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New England	40%	12%	4.0	72	51%	13%	9.1	151	40
Buffalo	50%	8%	3.6	73	36%	8%	5.5	73	13

Patriots took the first half to get warmed up, then put it away convincingly down the stretch to extend the winning streak. Next up, Miami? Ha Ha!

Philadelphia at Chicago

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Philadelphia	48%	12%	4.6	93	48%	5%	5.1	92	29
Chicago	46%	8%	2.4	53	42%	4%	4.1	67	6

Kind of an ugly game with a foregone conclusion as it turned out. No offense to speak of from Da Bears.

Washington at Cleveland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Washington	52%	4%	2.5	80	43%	6%	5.9	103	26
Cleveland	37%	11%	3.6	55	44%	12%	6.5	104	21

The WRONG TEAM WON! Lordy! Those Redskins fans will have to wait for the next big name coaching change for the next session of "immediate turnaround dreams" in politico land.

NY Giants at Green Bay

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
NY Giants	44%	19%	6.5	97	56%	7%	5.2	100	31
Green Bay	38%	5%	2.9	47	47%	12%	6.1	94	14

G-Men took a number and used it well. Rush/Pass, defense, all working. Can they take Dallas? hmmm...

Atlanta at Carolina

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Atlanta	40%	8%	4.5	75	63%	9%	7.9	145	39
Carolina	47%	5%	3.2	76	40%	12%	6.2	71	12

Showing which team in the NFC South has the most-est, the Falcons rumbled to a two game lead in the division. Nice.

New Orleans at Arizona

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New Orleans	18%	0%	1.3	12	44%	2%	5.7	97	7
Arizona	45%	18%	5.2	97	47%	22%	8.1	126	40

I did say that Dennis Green would get these Arizonians on the right path pretty quick, but the Saints do have some apologies to make for this one...

NY Jets at Miami

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
NY Jets	59%	15%	4.2	100	32%	4%	3.5	46	15
Miami	23%	5%	4.6	42	36%	11%	5.1	60	8

...and yet another feeble offensive showing from the Dolphins. It's not that hard people. Break out the gimmick playbook ala Emmitt's first TD toss.

Tennessee at San Diego

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tennessee	50%	11%	4.0	88	49%	5%	4.2	87	17
San Diego	59%	36%	8.9	159	47%	10%	9.4	133	50

Yowza! Dem's some big numbers posted by the Chargers against what was supposed to be a good Tennessee defense. Titans surely looking like one of those 'last year playoff teams that won't make it this year' group.

Denver at Tampa Bay

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Denver	42%	3%	2.7	62	35%	6%	5.5	88	16
Tampa Bay	48%	16%	4.0	68	42%	8%	5.7	92	23

The WRONG TEAM WON! Ooh, poor little Jon Gruden. No longer wonderboy, just boy. He was even making the appropriate conciliatory gestures towards McCardell. That gets solved this week methinks. Denver meanwhile not looking that powerful in these here wins. What happened to that theory that any Denver RB could pile up the yards?

St. Louis at San Francisco

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
St. Louis	60%	20%	5.0	120	57%	8%	7.3	142	47
San Francisco	42%	5%	3.0	73	56%	2%	5.4	109	20

Rams put the double-100-EFR whammy on the Niners defense. You get a 60% play success rate running and a 57% play success passing and yes you are in total control.

Kansas City at Baltimore

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Kansas City	53%	9%	4.2	90	50%	3%	6.4	108	32
Baltimore	38%	10%	2.9	66	31%	9%	6.0	81	13

Was it just me or did the Ravens not make too many smart offensive playcalls in this one? Is it just me or is the lack of a passing game going to be their downfall? Good one, KC, but it's a long way back to the playoffs with four divisions.

Also see:
Week That Was, Week 3
Week That Was, Week 2
Week That Was, Week 1

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