The Week That Was -- review of last week's NFL outcomes

THE WEEK THAT WAS / NFL WEEK SEVEN
With commentary by Tim

Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:

PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.

St. Louis at Miami

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
St. Louis	65%	15%	4.9	110	38%	11%	5.8	93	27
Miami	53%	6%	3.5	78	44%	12%	7.8	104	26

The WRONG TEAM WON! My gosh, take away that win from Miami. Back to 0-7 with you Dol-fans. Nah. It could of course have some seer-ee-ous implications down the line however.

Tennessee at Minnesota

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tennessee	31%	6%	2.1	37	36%	2%	4.3	58	0
Minnesota	48%	30%	4.9	92	47%	3%	4.4	91	31

Um, is it just me, or does it look like the Titans won't be playing in the post-season this time round?

Detroit at NY Giants

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Detroit	44%	11%	4.3	103	74%	15%	8.1	155	44
NY Giants	46%	8%	2.8	80	47%	7%	5.8	80	17

Go figure the Lions. Down for the count against the Packers one week, road warriors the next. Give 'em their due. These ain't the same old Lions.

Chicago at Tampa Bay

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Chicago	40%	5%	3.8	60	29%	3%	2.5	41	0
Tampa Bay	40%	17%	4.0	74	48%	4%	6.5	108	31

This might have been a good game, if you know, Chicago had a quarterback or something.

San Diego at Carolina

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
San Diego	48%	8%	4.6	88	45%	6%	6.3	91	24
Carolina	45%	3%	3.4	61	40%	3%	4.8	85	15

Da Bolts. Wrap up another win and have that Carolina circa 2003 feeling going, now don't they.

Buffalo at Baltimore

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Buffalo	39%	13%	3.6	60	34%	7%	4.6	43	8
Baltimore	38%	16%	3.2	70	28%	4%	2.4	44	15

Yawn. If two teams with good defense/lousy offense play in a forest, do they make any noise?

Philadelphia at Cleveland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Philadelphia	48%	16%	4.0	80	51%	11%	8.1	122	32
Cleveland	50%	19%	4.0	100	45%	8%	6.0	94	25

This was fun. Owens vs Garcia and all that. Sometimes you can just tell a game will be a good one.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Jacksonville	51%	11%	4.7	88	63%	12%	8.6	145	33
Indianapolis	61%	11%	4.8	100	60%	10%	9.0	158	48

Alert! Alert! The WRONG TEAM WON! Look at the play success rates in this here shindig my friends: both teams over 60% passing, and over 50% rushing. Yah! That's the ticket (to an early playoff exit).

Atlanta at Kansas City

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Atlanta	31%	14%	4.7	59	20%	3%	3.5	24	10
Kansas City	71%	18%	5.5	148	63%	13%	9.1	169	43

Um, Falcons foiled and ultimately foolish. Chiefs crisp and classy. Tim on the verge of being fired.

NY Jets at New England

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
NY Jets	51%	7%	3.9	70	48%	3%	5.4	103	20
New England	44%	11%	5.2	81	42%	6%	6.0	112	31

Yeah, yeah, yeah, Pats win another one, but you heard it here first: the streak ends this week in Pittsburgh.

Seattle at Arizona

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Seattle	33%	13%	3.9	53	32%	7%	4.4	37	0
Arizona	28%	9%	3.7	60	42%	5%	4.5	70	23

Did I not tell you that Dennis Green was just about the world's greatest NFL coach? There's some study that looked at pythagorean estimates of wins based on points scored and against, and Green's teams always outperform the expected number of wins. The best ex-Bill Walsh disciple.

Dallas at Green Bay

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Dallas	37%	13%	4.1	87	53%	10%	7.7	125	27
Green Bay	51%	14%	7.6	103	67%	10%	8.3	141	44

Packers know how to score now. Question is, can they rebuild their defense that got snookered and bamboozled with the old injury bug.

New Orleans at Oakland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New Orleans	30%	0%	1.6	57	46%	10%	6.7	117	23
Oakland	50%	0%	3.4	62	48%	15%	7.3	121	30

The WRONG TEAM WON! How on earth did the Saints fail to rush for more than 1.6 yards per carry? Must have been some holding penalties or something. Raiders on the downward slope. Al Davis' new mantra: just win baby (every five or six years).

Denver at Cincinnati

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Denver	59%	15%	4.1	107	43%	2%	3.8	59	10
Cincinnati	36%	17%	4.5	73	39%	17%	9.5	113	33

Bliss. My Bengals whomp 'em, stomp 'em on the Denver robots. Palmer looks passable (I mean the TD pass he threw the DB just fell over and Chad Johnson had to slow down to let the ball reach him...) but oh what could have been with another year of Kitna.

Also see:
Week That Was, Week 6
Week That Was, Week 5
Week That Was, Week 4
Week That Was, Week 3
Week That Was, Week 2
Week That Was, Week 1

We want your feedback! Tell us your thoughts