The Week That Was -- review of last week's NFL outcomes

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The Week That Was

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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim is here to answer all of these questions and more.

THE WEEK THAT WAS: NFL Week One
With commentary by Tim

Be ready my mateys! Batton down the hatches, hoist the sails, and prepare to set sail for another wondrous journey into the vast oceans and unchartered worlds that beckon to us from this here National Football League...

Yo-Ho, Yo-Ho, a Pirate's life for me!

Hot off the presses, the early edition TMW play-by-play ratings for your perusal from the most recent week of this festive NFL season. For those new to the numbers read the following:

PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.

Oakland at New England

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Oakland	40%	12%	3.0	56	36%	11%	5.5	81	8
New England	37%	7%	2.2	62	54%	17%	8.3	142	41

Maybe you haven't noticed, but that there Tom Brady has suddenly become a lethal passer, and I don't mean in that controlled "game management" way either. We won't be able to tell what Oakland's future holds until they play a bad defense, like say Kansas City!

Chicago at Washington

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Chicago	38%	0%	2.2	50	45%	6%	3.6	67	3
Washington	43%	8%	4.5	75	40%	10%	6.3	80	23

I wake up every day and thank my illustrious fortune that I am not a Bears fan. Skins too for that matter.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cincinnati	60%	6%	4.1	96	61%	8%	6.8	128	40
Cleveland	38%	6%	4.3	55	53%	5%	6.4	97	13

Woo-Hoo, Woo-Hoo, Bengals are good, are good, are going, are going, to the Super Bowl, to the Super Bowl. BENGALIS of the World Unite! This is the year, I'm a telling you. Somehow the offseason Two Minute Warning power ratings which so rightly had Cincy as #5 have been changed by some nefarious MBA (master of bean accounting) to the point where they dropped all the way down to #11 before week one kickoffs. Mistake acknowledged. The only question is how quickly they leapfrog the Pats for numero uno.

Denver at Miami

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Denver	30%	10%	3.4	60	45%	4%	4.6	94	13
Miami	41%	6%	4.1	61	58%	8%	7.6	128	36

A pie-ami in Miami. Good old Gus gives us older geezers a heartwarming lift. Heck I may go get that high school football gameball out of the drawer and toss it around in the yard for a bit.

Houston at Buffalo

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Houston	43%	9%	4.1	69	19%	0%	0.9	-24	0
Buffalo	37%	17%	4.5	71	38%	3%	4.6	83	28

Texans have a LONG way to go methinks to straighten out this offensive quagmire that has emerged. Or maybe the Bills are just dang good.

New Orleans at Carolina

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
New Orleans	39%	6%	3.0	69	60%	7%	6.6	128	36
Carolina	40%	12%	5.6	84	40%	14%	5.5	67	9

An epic triumph as the Saints on that emotional journey of rebuilding a city put down the foundation for a recovery.

N.Y. Jets at Kansas City

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
N.Y. Jets	20%	4%	1.9	12	50%	10%	6.7	110	8
Kansas City	58%	18%	5.6	114	51%	7%	6.9	110	41

In all the waffle about Pennington and arm strength, what was lost is that the Jets running game went nowhere. Will we see more teams consider the two studs in the backfield approach? I would think so.

Seattle at Jacksonville

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Seattle	47%	11%	5.1	84	51%	5%	5.4	92	17
Jacksonville	43%	3%	4.0	63	51%	14%	6.7	131	36

Turnovers, schurnovers. The S'hawks just ain't no good.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tampa Bay	37%	7%	5.1	65	34%	13%	6.0	56	12
Minnesota	16%	6%	0.5	11	51%	8%	6.2	79	11

Wipe that smile off your face Bucs fans, those offensive numbers aren't anything to write home about. You remember last year? And oh yeah, the Mike Tice watch begins. I've got him at week five in the pool.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Tennessee	27%	14%	4.4	59	48%	6%	6.3	93	31
Pittsburgh	41%	12%	4.8	82	81%	36%	19.8	281	64

Get a load of those PIT passing numbers: 81% plays success rate and 36% of them going for 20+ yards. Guess that Tennessee secondary ain't fixed at all from last season's disaster.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Arizona	30%	5%	1.6	30	39%	3%	4.5	68	0
N.Y. Giants	43%	22%	5.3	117	32%	14%	5.3	60	27

One day Arizona may have a decent team. But that's the optimist's view.

Dallas at San Diego

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Dallas	38%	10%	3.5	83	53%	10%	6.7	136	40
San Diego	62%	4%	3.4	88	40%	5%	5.0	72	13

Good coaching goes a long way in this league if you haven't noticed. Bledsoe undeniably an improvement over Vinny.

Green Bay at Detroit

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Green Bay	41%	6%	2.3	58	43%	2%	3.5	54	0
Detroit	46%	3%	3.4	60	42%	6%	4.9	96	27

Folks I hate to say it, but Favre is in his last year and it won't be a pretty one. Lions started off okay in 2004 and quickly went south. Repeat anyone?

St. Louis at San Francisco

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
St. Louis	38%	12%	3.4	65	44%	5%	5.0	80	9
San Francisco	10%	0%	1.8	21	61%	19%	9.2	171	42

The prevailing wisdom is that this was a win based on emotion (Death of a teammate) and over-confidence (St Louie has had that problem before). Tim's wisdom says the Niners are a much, much better team that they are being given credit for. Look for more upsets in the coming weeks.

Indianapolis at Baltimore

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Indianapolis	43%	13%	3.8	86	48%	8%	6.9	126	37
Baltimore	38%	14%	3.7	76	41%	5%	5.2	65	10

Ain't no mountain high enough, ain't no defense good enough, ain't no way Boller's an NFL QB, that how the song goes.

Philadelphia at Atlanta

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Philadelphia	35%	14%	3.6	57	36%	6%	5.3	87	21
Atlanta	52%	16%	5.0	102	23%	7%	3.2	23	3

We've saved the best for last: The WRONG TEAM WON! Mr. Vick runs around nicely, but as a passer, bleah.

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Comparing NFL Handicapping Services
'Ready to Win' in 2005: our suite of tools to attack the lines this season

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