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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Ten
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Atlanta at Carolina
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Atlanta |
35% |
11% |
3.1 |
57 |
48% |
7% |
6.5 |
103 |
26 |
| Carolina |
35% |
7% |
3.2 |
42 |
31% |
9% |
3.8 |
46 |
0 |
Impression: Sorry times in Carolina. Falcons turning the corner post-Vick?
Mike: The Falcons played efficient, balanced offense and stout defense (never thought I’d writing that anytime soon). The Panthers have too much talent to look this bad, maybe they need a new coaching staff. Carolina has lost 6 in a row at home!
Minnesota at Green Bay
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Minnesota |
46% |
33% |
5.9 |
106 |
34% |
7% |
5.5 |
62 |
10 |
| Green Bay |
36% |
13% |
4.0 |
70 |
61% |
8% |
7.8 |
146 |
43 |
Impression: Favre dream season. Will it have a dream finish?
Mike: God’s team won again this week, what a surprise. I understand that the 10 to 12 Hail Mary’s that Favre throws up every game are planned to either draw a flag or allow the receiver to make a big play, but when you throw the ball directly at 2 defenders and they collide and tip the ball to the receiver for a touchdown it’s more then just luck, someone upstairs is looking out for you. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went undefeated the rest of the way; I don’t know what happened in their loss to Chicago, a comeback on MNF, maybe God lives on the east coast and went to bed early.
Denver at Kansas City
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Denver |
37% |
17% |
4.1 |
82 |
37% |
6% |
5.9 |
81 |
21 |
| Kansas City |
40% |
14% |
3.0 |
54 |
42% |
2% |
4.3 |
71 |
10 |
Impression: Hard to predict what Denver will do in a given week.
Mike: Pretty simple game plan for beating the Chiefs: shut down their running game (which was done easier with the absence of LJ) and don’t turn the ball over. Funny ending to the game, the Broncos defense was called for 5 offside penalties in a matter of 9 plays.
Buffalo at Miami
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Buffalo |
41% |
4% |
2.6 |
54 |
50% |
8% |
6.0 |
107 |
26 |
| Miami |
37% |
9% |
3.6 |
65 |
37% |
6% |
4.2 |
62 |
7 |
Impression: Rumor was Miami players were trash talking. Un-believable.
Mike: The Bills had done absolutely nothing on offense until the 4th quarter when Losman, the AFC version of Rex Grossman, drove the Bills down for the game-tying touchdown and Marshawn Lynch put them in position to kick the game-winning field goal. The Dolphins can’t catch a break, they have Ted Ginn return a kick for a touchdown in the 4th quarter that gets called back on a hold.
St. Louis at New Orleans
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| St. Louis |
32% |
9% |
3.6 |
58 |
58% |
10% |
7.5 |
151 |
31 |
| New Orleans |
54% |
18% |
3.9 |
118 |
64% |
10% |
7.8 |
133 |
44 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! Rams used the bye week well it appears.
Mike: Maybe the Saints didn’t watch any game film of the Rams, because what I’ve seen this year is teams run all over St. Louis. So what do the Saints do?! Pass. They only ran the ball 6 times in the first half and 5 times in the second. The Rams were exceptional on offense, well balanced and efficient.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cleveland |
29% |
6% |
2.4 |
47 |
40% |
0% |
3.8 |
90 |
10 |
| Pittsburgh |
25% |
6% |
3.5 |
38 |
52% |
10% |
6.9 |
126 |
31 |
Impression: the wrong team covered. Cleveland would have been crushed if not for the two huge kickoff returns.
Mike: The Browns were so close. They were able to move the ball in the first half without a running game but it hurt them in the second half as they continually went 3 & out. If Romeo Crennel could tighten up this defense the Browns would be for real.
Jacksonville at Tennessee
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Jacksonville |
37% |
13% |
4.2 |
70 |
40% |
0% |
4.3 |
80 |
20 |
| Tennessee |
21% |
7% |
1.9 |
7 |
46% |
4% |
5.5 |
85 |
6 |
Impression: Titans win ugly routine ran out of luck.
Mike: A knock-down, drag-out affair in Tennessee that was won by Jacksonville simply because they controlled the line of scrimmage on offense. I like Jeff Fisher’s formula, get good line play and win the turnover battle, but they need to become a little more dynamic on offense. The problem is either Norm Chow or Vince Young.
Philadelphia at Washington
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Philadelphia |
61% |
15% |
4.6 |
115 |
55% |
9% |
7.9 |
123 |
35 |
| Washington |
61% |
15% |
4.5 |
105 |
60% |
5% |
5.7 |
128 |
38 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! Neither team good enough IMHO.
Mike: The Redskins are the worst 4th quarter team in the league. They could have had this game in the bag if they could have scored a touchdown with 1st and goal at the 3, but they have to settle for a field goal and then Brian Westbrook went wild on a 57 yard scamper.
Cincinnati at Baltimore
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cincinnati |
31% |
3% |
2.2 |
37 |
50% |
11% |
6.8 |
115 |
21 |
| Baltimore |
41% |
12% |
3.5 |
82 |
52% |
3% |
5.7 |
81 |
20 |
Impression: Should have been closer.
Mike: I long for the days when this used to be an important game. I used to love when Ray Lewis used to answer questions about the Bengals chances in the upcoming game by saying “the Bengals don’t win in Baltimore”. Well now Cincinnati owns the Ravens and it’s not because they’re so great, but because Rex Ryan can’t figure out how to beat them. They usually play aggressive and Cincy beats them deep, so this game the Ravens played deep and Palmer ate them up with short passes. Oh, and Brian Billick, the offensive genius, needs to be fired.
Detroit at Arizona
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Detroit |
12% |
0% |
-2.3 |
0 |
55% |
4% |
5.6 |
81 |
3 |
| Arizona |
46% |
0% |
2.8 |
50 |
65% |
3% |
6.5 |
137 |
34 |
Impression: should have been less close. Lions a horrible road team.
Mike: The Lions wide receivers got creamed by the Arizona secondary every time they caught the ball, at one point Antrel Rolle knocked out Roy Williams’ mouthpiece and sent it flying 5 yards. Detroit ended up with -18 yards rushing in this game; you’re not going to be successful if the other team knows your going to pass on every down (and when you turn the ball over 5 times).
Dallas at NY Giants
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Dallas |
24% |
8% |
2.8 |
52 |
58% |
10% |
7.9 |
145 |
38 |
| NY Giants |
50% |
7% |
3.4 |
71 |
48% |
8% |
4.9 |
79 |
11 |
Impression: Dallas clear cut NFC team to beat. But Cowboys-Packers could be fun.
Mike: The Giants are good but Dallas is just a little too talented for them. The Cowboys offensive line kept the New York pass rush quiet the whole game. Tony Romo is just so tough to beat these days with all the weapons available to him and his ability to create on the run; just wait until Terry Glenn gets back.
Chicago at Oakland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Chicago |
35% |
0% |
2.2 |
38 |
45% |
10% |
6.8 |
125 |
26 |
| Oakland |
32% |
11% |
3.5 |
53 |
29% |
0% |
2.1 |
32 |
0 |
Impression: both Nor Cal teams suck. Neither has any offense but both have solid enough defense.
Mike: Raider games are always so boring! I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the Bears Offensive Coordinator Ron Turner looks to take advantage of a mismatch at an opportune time, well the Bears got that chance when they threw a go route to Berrian with 3 minutes left, beating replacement CB Chris Carr for 60 yards.
Indianapolis at San Diego
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Indianapolis |
30% |
4% |
2.8 |
50 |
51% |
5% |
5.5 |
70 |
21 |
| San Diego |
40% |
8% |
3.2 |
64 |
34% |
0% |
2.9 |
23 |
3 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! Manning throws six INT's. Go figure.
Mike: If you’re the Chargers you might be happy about the win, but you have to realize you have no chance to win in the playoffs. The Colts gave up 6 interceptions and allowed 2 kick returns for touchdowns, and you needed them to miss a chip-shot field goal to win, and at home!
San Francisco at Seattle
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| San Francisco |
26% |
20% |
4.8 |
60 |
15% |
3% |
2.7 |
24 |
0 |
| Seattle |
43% |
3% |
2.7 |
71 |
59% |
7% |
6.5 |
120 |
31 |
Impression: SF on way to lovely 2-14 record and mass firings. Alex Smith officially a bust.
Mike: The 49ers are just terrible on offense. They didn’t get 1 first down the first half, and went 1 for 12 on third downs for the game. The 49ers defense is pretty good, but they don’t have a chance when their offense only keeps the ball for 20 minutes. The Seahawks didn’t even pretend to run the ball in this game, coming out on their first offensive play with an empty backfield.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Nine
- Week That Was: Week Eight
- Week That Was: Week Seven
- Week That Was: Week Six
- Week That Was: Week Five
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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