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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week One
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Opening Remarks:
These are some big shoes to fill! Tim has been writing his week that was gig in his own unique style for many years apparently. I can't give it the same shake (fortunately some of you may be thinking) but will at least give you the same numbers to review.
New Orleans at Indianapolis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New Orleans |
48% |
8% |
4.0 |
84 |
53% |
2% |
4.4 |
72 |
13 |
| Indianapolis |
58% |
17% |
5.6 |
110 |
43% |
20% |
9.7 |
143 |
46 |
So much for the Super Bowl jinx effect. The Colts looked real smooth.
Denver at Buffalo
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Denver |
41% |
13% |
5.1 |
80 |
46% |
15% |
7.5 |
121 |
32 |
| Buffalo |
42% |
15% |
4.3 |
84 |
26% |
0% |
3.1 |
34 |
6 |
Buffalo kept it close on the scoreboard but not in the box score.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Pittsburgh |
39% |
12% |
5.0 |
78 |
37% |
17% |
6.6 |
129 |
32 |
| Cleveland |
40% |
0% |
3.1 |
46 |
36% |
9% |
3.5 |
54 |
6 |
Ouch. Not the way you want to begin the season if you are a Browns fan.
Philadelphia at Green Bay
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Philadelphia |
46% |
3% |
3.1 |
60 |
30% |
6% |
4.5 |
61 |
18 |
| Green Bay |
31% |
0% |
3.0 |
43 |
31% |
2% |
3.4 |
42 |
6 |
THE WRONG TEAM WON!
Kansas City at Houston
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Kansas City |
58% |
6% |
4.2 |
88 |
35% |
5% |
3.8 |
43 |
6 |
| Houston |
45% |
6% |
3.2 |
58 |
41% |
8% |
8.5 |
83 |
20 |
People said the Chiefs would be bad, but this bad?
Tennessee at Jacksonville
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tennessee |
67% |
17% |
6.2 |
130 |
28% |
5% |
3.0 |
28 |
7 |
| Jacksonville |
29% |
18% |
3.4 |
58 |
41% |
9% |
5.9 |
94 |
24 |
THE WRONG TEAM WON! If I am not mistaken that happened a lot with Tennessee last season.
Atlanta at Minnesota
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Atlanta |
33% |
15% |
3.2 |
59 |
50% |
0% |
4.1 |
55 |
3 |
| Minnesota |
40% |
19% |
4.4 |
74 |
45% |
12% |
7.2 |
112 |
34 |
Dogs have cast bad karma on the Falcons.
New England at N.Y. Jets
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New England |
55% |
6% |
3.4 |
97 |
71% |
11% |
10.6 |
189 |
48 |
| N.Y. Jets |
26% |
16% |
3.1 |
57 |
44% |
0% |
4.6 |
88 |
21 |
Patriots sizzling hot to start the season.
Carolina at St. Louis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Carolina |
43% |
30% |
4.7 |
94 |
55% |
10% |
8.3 |
130 |
39 |
| St. Louis |
47% |
5% |
3.3 |
63 |
36% |
4% |
4.6 |
82 |
12 |
Carolina on a mission this year after disappointing with high expectations in 2006.
Miami at Washington
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Miami |
28% |
10% |
2.6 |
47 |
47% |
10% |
5.2 |
97 |
14 |
| Washington |
51% |
10% |
3.7 |
78 |
44% |
20% |
9.3 |
96 |
27 |
Finally the Redskins may have turned the corner with the new Joe Gibbs era.
Tampa Bay at Seattle
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tampa Bay |
47% |
5% |
3.7 |
85 |
46% |
5% |
5.5 |
82 |
11 |
| Seattle |
39% |
12% |
4.1 |
72 |
59% |
15% |
7.5 |
144 |
44 |
Gruden first to be fired?
Chicago at San Diego
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Chicago |
26% |
8% |
3.0 |
38 |
42% |
8% |
4.6 |
80 |
10 |
| San Diego |
40% |
6% |
2.2 |
62 |
43% |
3% |
5.1 |
70 |
15 |
Two good teams.
Detroit at Oakland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Detroit |
52% |
16% |
5.3 |
100 |
51% |
7% |
6.9 |
119 |
33 |
| Oakland |
45% |
18% |
4.1 |
100 |
60% |
2% |
6.3 |
108 |
30 |
Two bad teams.
NY Giants at Dallas
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Giants |
54% |
9% |
5.0 |
100 |
55% |
9% |
7.0 |
117 |
24 |
| Dallas |
33% |
10% |
4.7 |
73 |
51% |
26% |
11.7 |
174 |
51 |
Love him or hate him, Terrell Owens is entertaining.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Baltimore |
38% |
15% |
3.7 |
76 |
52% |
2% |
4.7 |
81 |
20 |
| Cincinnati |
33% |
5% |
2.7 |
42 |
37% |
6% |
4.6 |
80 |
11 |
THE WRONG TEAM WON!
Arizona at San Francisco
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Arizona |
48% |
9% |
4.2 |
82 |
42% |
0% |
3.4 |
48 |
3 |
| San Francisco |
36% |
11% |
2.9 |
89 |
34% |
11% |
4.3 |
84 |
28 |
Prognosticators are high on San Francisco being at least a .500 team. I'm not yet convinced.
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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