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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Eleven
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tampa Bay |
48% |
15% |
5.4 |
92 |
50% |
13% |
6.9 |
129 |
34 |
| Atlanta |
31% |
0% |
2.5 |
47 |
41% |
2% |
4.0 |
56 |
7 |
Impression: Tampa Bay kind of the quiet NFC team at this point. Could they be serious contenders to go to the Super Bowl?
Mike: Nobody likes Joey Harrington, but he has a QB rating of 83 and he won the last 2 games. Why make the change? Atlanta also has a game-breaking back in Jerious Norwood and he only got 4 touches in this game; forget Reggie Bush, this guy is most like Gale Sayers and they don’t give him the ball.
Cleveland at Baltimore
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cleveland |
56% |
9% |
3.7 |
109 |
38% |
7% |
5.5 |
69 |
17 |
| Baltimore |
41% |
13% |
4.7 |
87 |
42% |
8% |
5.7 |
95 |
28 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON!
Mike: I like this Browns team, they have a great passing game, run the ball hard, and they play some pretty exiting games, but there defense is terrible Baltimore only gained 38 yards in the 1st half (due to mistakes on their part), then scored on every possession in the 4th quarter. Note to Baltimore: I know Cribbs is an outstanding return man, how do you not know?! How do you kick to him with 26 seconds left in the game and let him return it to the 43 yard line?!
New England at Buffalo
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New England |
57% |
8% |
4.3 |
111 |
79% |
11% |
8.6 |
181 |
48 |
| Buffalo |
61% |
6% |
3.7 |
88 |
40% |
6% |
5.1 |
71 |
21 |
Impression: Wow. Just don't expect the Patriots to do what they do week after week. Could the playoffs be a complete waste of time outside of NE vs IND?
Mike: The Patriots scored touchdowns on each of their first 7 possessions, 6 of those drives being over 60 yards. This is ridiculous.
Arizona at Cincinnati
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Arizona |
31% |
0% |
2.3 |
54 |
48% |
9% |
5.8 |
124 |
32 |
| Cincinnati |
50% |
5% |
1.9 |
59 |
47% |
4% |
5.8 |
76 |
9 |
Impression: Bengals a bad team.
Mike: I want to get exited about the Cardinals chances for the playoffs, but they did not deserve to win this game, the Bengals threw the game away (the way they have all year). Carson Palmer threw 4 INTs and probably could have thrown 4 more; shades of Favre in the past, trying to do too much on a poor team. Note to Marvin Lewis: Here is the secret recipe buddy, Belichick drafts smart guys he can teach the finer points of the game to. You draft the ‘questionable character’ guys who tell valet guys to go ‘f’ themselves the day before they are reinstated.
Washington at Dallas
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Washington |
41% |
0% |
2.3 |
52 |
54% |
7% |
6.2 |
117 |
18 |
| Dallas |
42% |
8% |
2.3 |
53 |
61% |
18% |
9.9 |
147 |
39 |
Impression: Dallas still the toast of the lesser conference.
Mike: Not that it might have mattered against the Cowboys, but Washington is the worst 2nd half team in the NFL. The Redskins have been outscored in the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6 games. Part of the problem has been conservative play calling, but they opened it up in this game and yet their defense let them down.
Carolina at Green Bay
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Carolina |
62% |
7% |
4.5 |
93 |
45% |
13% |
6.9 |
95 |
19 |
| Green Bay |
45% |
13% |
4.4 |
79 |
56% |
6% |
6.8 |
131 |
38 |
Impression: Packers another NFC bigwig. Still have images of Favre throwing some INT's at a bad time.
Mike: In the 1st quarter the Panthers tried a pooch punt out of field-goal formation that got returned 94 yards for a touchdown. A couple of things wrong with that idea: A) you were asking offensive lineman to run punt coverage, bad idea, and B) your gunner on that play was your punter, and he tried to make a flying tackle with his head. Oh and that ‘picket fence’ defensive formation you called on 2nd & goal in the 2nd quarter, the one where you lined up 7 guys stretched out along the goal line and hoped that Favre couldn’t figure out how to throw between defenders, that was a bad idea too.
New Orleans at Houston
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New Orleans |
40% |
5% |
1.8 |
50 |
54% |
4% |
5.4 |
86 |
9 |
| Houston |
48% |
8% |
4.1 |
88 |
51% |
12% |
8.6 |
139 |
42 |
Impression: Saints were down then up, then down, then...
Mike: It seemed like the Texans and their fans were treating this game like a playoff game, lots of energy. Houston is healthier and looking like the promising team they were at the beginning of the season. They looked very efficient on offense, which I think says more about the mediocrity of the Saints defense then anything else, especially the secondary. Oh, and Texans fans, don’t start feeling good about maybe making the right choice not taking Bush, feel free to look up all the other players you passed up in that draft.
Kansas City at Indianapolis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Kansas City |
35% |
4% |
2.2 |
39 |
53% |
0% |
4.8 |
90 |
15 |
| Indianapolis |
54% |
8% |
2.9 |
70 |
37% |
3% |
4.4 |
60 |
12 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! Patriots are convincing each week. Colts are unconvincing. It only takes one game to end a season however!
Mike: I tend to stress the importance of line play because A) it is so vastly underrated and B) it is the only thing you can really see on the TV broadcast, so I can’t judge much else. The offensive line for the Colts is hurt, and as a result, Manning got beat up in this game and was ineffective for the most part. Give the Colts credit though, they’re tough, they took the Chiefs best shots and came up big when it counted, driving 61 yards on 14 plays, including one 4th down conversion, to win the game. I love when the Chiefs lose. A Chiefs loss = post-game hilarity from Herm Edwards.
San Diego at Jacksonville
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| San Diego |
50% |
10% |
3.9 |
90 |
35% |
19% |
6.8 |
88 |
19 |
| Jacksonville |
42% |
9% |
3.0 |
68 |
46% |
15% |
7.1 |
119 |
32 |
Impression: Chargers become a Turner team.
Mike: Not as close as the score or stats might indicate, as Jacksonville put it in cruise control in the 4th quarter. The Jaguars are looking like a nice team, stout defense that kills running games, and a ball-control offense that just got their leader back. The Chargers playbook must be available on-line or something, I just don’t understand why they are struggling so bad with all the talent they have.
Oakland at Minnesota
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Oakland |
18% |
7% |
1.7 |
18 |
47% |
9% |
7.1 |
100 |
14 |
| Minnesota |
56% |
28% |
7.1 |
134 |
64% |
4% |
8.3 |
146 |
47 |
Impression: Will the Raiders start the #1 pick for crying out loud? The season is over. Play the Rookie!
Mike: Finally, a Raiders game that was fun to watch. Some great plays in this game, including an improbable catch by Curry where he was sandwiched between 2 defenders. A monster game for Chester Taylor, 164 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. The Raiders just lost a game in which the other team turned the ball over 5 times, congratulations.
Pittsburgh at NY Jets
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Pittsburgh |
45% |
9% |
3.1 |
63 |
39% |
12% |
4.2 |
72 |
8 |
| NY Jets |
36% |
9% |
4.1 |
78 |
47% |
8% |
5.6 |
92 |
27 |
Impression: Big Upset. Steelers strictly a home team power.
Mike: The Jets played a hell of a game on defense, they shut down the Steelers running game and put a lot of pressure on Roethlisberger on third downs. Clemens struggled a bit, but he did lead his team down the field for the game-tying field goal with under 2 minutes left to play; I’ll take him on my team any day.
Miami at Philadelphia
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Miami |
29% |
13% |
3.0 |
54 |
39% |
9% |
4.8 |
78 |
14 |
| Philadelphia |
51% |
13% |
5.1 |
105 |
40% |
6% |
4.0 |
43 |
13 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! Breaks a Dolphin fan's heart I'm sure.
Mike: The world must be coming to an end, the Eagles are finally running the ball! McNabb goes out in the 2nd quarter and I think they did just as well with Feely. Sign that the Dolphins are mailing it in: in the 1st quarter, the Eagles Kevin Curtis catches a ball and goes out of bounds near mid-field, getting pushed nearly 7 yards out-of-bounds and goes untouched by sideline personnel because the rest of the Dolphins are sitting on the bench keeping warm. I’ve never seen a sideline full of just coaches.
N.Y. Giants at Detroit
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| N.Y. Giants |
32% |
8% |
2.2 |
52 |
54% |
2% |
6.6 |
114 |
26 |
| Detroit |
36% |
0% |
2.2 |
36 |
44% |
17% |
7.3 |
93 |
13 |
Impression: Giants > lesser teams, < greater teams. Kind of obvious when you write it like that but you get my meaning.
Mike: The Lions crack me up, last year Roy Williams says that it was scary how close they were to scoring 40 points with regard to a game in which they scored 6 points. Now Kitna is making light of the Giants by saying that he was disappointed they lost because they weren’t a better team. Michael Strahan replies, "Maybe we'll see them down the road and if that's the case, we'll beat that a-- again." Look Detroit, you’ve only had 1 win against a team with a winning record, you guys aren’t exactly burning up the league.
St. Louis at San Francisco
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| St. Louis |
32% |
7% |
3.6 |
53 |
35% |
0% |
2.5 |
45 |
3 |
| San Francisco |
31% |
0% |
2.0 |
37 |
39% |
7% |
5.1 |
75 |
19 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! All I know is I wouldn't bet on SF this season. Ever.
Mike: S.F. has the worst offensive coordinator in the league, Jim Hostler. Frank Gore only had 32 yards on 15 rushes! Are you kidding me! They need to start over. Oh, and by the way, you are now tied with the Rams for last place, feel free to kick yourself in the balls; and that high draft pick your ‘earning’ on the field is going straight to the Patriots, as if they need the help, way to go.
Chicago at Seattle
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Chicago |
36% |
11% |
5.0 |
84 |
40% |
9% |
5.7 |
81 |
11 |
| Seattle |
50% |
25% |
4.9 |
115 |
51% |
6% |
6.9 |
117 |
44 |
Impression: Bears defense no longer anything special.
Mike: The Seahawks offense has finally started to click now that they’ve put more emphasis on the pass, which coincidentally has opened up their running game a bit. The Bears need new coordinators on offense and defense. Never mind that the Bears are a “running team” that only rushed 18 times in a close game, the defense has no idea how to stop the pass.
Tennessee at Denver
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tennessee |
42% |
11% |
3.7 |
75 |
54% |
5% |
6.9 |
120 |
21 |
| Denver |
36% |
16% |
5.9 |
76 |
60% |
17% |
10.0 |
165 |
50 |
Impression: Broncos another crazy up and down team.
Mike: Albert Haynesworth has missed his 2nd straight game and is sorely missed, this defense just isn’t the same without him. Vince Young seems to be growing impatient with his receivers. Despite their quick start, I think the Titans are likely to miss the playoffs. I’m not going to talk about how good the Broncos looked, because every time I start to feel like I have a handle on them they go out and do the opposite.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Ten
- Week That Was: Week Nine
- Week That Was: Week Eight
- Week That Was: Week Seven
- Week That Was: Week Six
- Week That Was: Week Five
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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