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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Twelve
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Green Bay at Detroit
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Green Bay |
50% |
19% |
6.3 |
100 |
65% |
14% |
8.8 |
174 |
47 |
| Detroit |
46% |
11% |
4.4 |
89 |
40% |
4% |
4.3 |
74 |
20 |
Impression: Packers on dream season run. Favre may come back for more?
Mike:
We had the Lions, Brett Favre, and animated robot turkey football players, but it’s just not the same without Pat Summerall & John Madden, turducken and 6-legged turkeys. By the way Detroit fans, the Lions haven’t won a Thanksgiving game since 2003; feel free to stay home next year.
NY Jets at Dallas
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Jets |
28% |
10% |
2.8 |
42 |
26% |
7% |
4.0 |
46 |
0 |
| Dallas |
48% |
12% |
5.0 |
96 |
50% |
6% |
5.5 |
96 |
31 |
Impression: This year there are the Have's and Have Not's.
Mike:
A pretty dominating performance for the Cowboys on defense, allowing only 180 yards. Their weakness though is in the secondary, specifically giving up big plays, and that’s what Green Bay does best.
Indianapolis at Atlanta
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Indianapolis |
59% |
7% |
4.3 |
100 |
55% |
8% |
6.2 |
126 |
35 |
| Atlanta |
41% |
3% |
3.4 |
62 |
39% |
6% |
4.3 |
51 |
8 |
Impression: ditto on the last game impression.
Mike:
The Falcons got out to an early lead, but the Colts are just too efficient to be beat by such a bad team. I love how Peyton Manning can effectively end the game by bleeding the clock. The Colts dominated the time of possession in the 2nd half as Manning led the Colts down the field slowly but surely. If the Colts had Marvin Harrison a couple of weeks ago they would have done the same to the Patriots.
New Orleans at Carolina
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New Orleans |
38% |
0% |
3.2 |
47 |
54% |
5% |
6.7 |
121 |
30 |
| Carolina |
43% |
6% |
3.3 |
56 |
39% |
5% |
4.5 |
60 |
3 |
Impression: Can't figure out the Saints myself. Some days look great others look sucky.
Mike:
It’s suiting, that the Panthers would have the NFL logo at midfield instead of their own logo, as every visiting team has owned the field when they have come to play at Carolina. The Panthers have not won a home game since Week 11 of last year. I hope people don’t start jumping on the Saints bandwagon again, this team is not for real, and Tampa Bay will prove that next week.
Denver at Chicago
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Denver |
37% |
16% |
3.7 |
81 |
47% |
9% |
8.7 |
117 |
35 |
| Chicago |
38% |
10% |
3.8 |
77 |
30% |
8% |
4.2 |
66 |
8 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! Wow, did they ever. 35-8 on the stats score. Two touchdown returns by Hester have something to do with the miracle Bears win.
Mike:
Most teams have figured out that you have to be careful with Devin Hester, even take extreme measures like the Lions and game plan the “kick it in the lake” approach. Every once in a while you get those teams that can’t swallow their pride, like the Colts special teams when they begged Dungy to let them kick it to him in the Super Bowl, and you end up with 2 returns for touchdowns and the difference in a game in which you should have won handedly.
Tennessee at Cincinnati
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tennessee |
50% |
6% |
3.4 |
68 |
47% |
9% |
7.2 |
97 |
13 |
| Cincinnati |
48% |
8% |
3.8 |
83 |
71% |
8% |
7.1 |
138 |
44 |
Impression: Titans have come undone. No way they can play with the big teams anyway.
Mike:
Albert Haynesworth has missed 3 straight games which has lead to 3 straight losses for the Titans. They need him to play, he shuts down the opponents run, allowing the secondary to do their job easier, and keeps the game close for their offense, which can’t be depended upon to carry the team.
Houston at Cleveland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Houston |
52% |
11% |
3.7 |
68 |
46% |
8% |
6.7 |
107 |
21 |
| Cleveland |
50% |
15% |
4.0 |
88 |
50% |
14% |
6.8 |
111 |
32 |
Impression: Browns rocking! I think they may have already gone Over their season wins line total.
Mike:
I am officially on the Browns bandwagon. It’s a lot of fun watching this team play (especially when Gus Johnson does the play-by-play) and it’s great to see a team that has been so bad in recent years have a shot at the playoffs.
Buffalo at Jacksonville
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Buffalo |
63% |
5% |
4.0 |
90 |
47% |
5% |
4.5 |
70 |
10 |
| Jacksonville |
53% |
19% |
4.7 |
96 |
52% |
13% |
7.6 |
131 |
43 |
Impression: Convincing win for the Jaguars puts them back safely in the playoffs I believe. They don't scare the Patriots I would guess.
Mike:
When you see the Jaguars play and look at their stats, there isn’t much not to like. They play efficiently, they dominate each line of scrimmage, they dictate the flow of the game, and they get the big plays when they need them. I don’t think they’re in the same class as the Patriots, but I could see them giving the Pats a run for their money.
Oakland at Kansas City
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Oakland |
60% |
25% |
5.4 |
135 |
54% |
13% |
6.6 |
116 |
40 |
| Kansas City |
43% |
14% |
4.1 |
81 |
33% |
7% |
4.3 |
66 |
13 |
Impression: Raiders finally get on track. Now maybe they can win back to back?
Mike:
The Raiders actually looked half decent. I usually look forward to a Herm Edwards press conference after a loss, but this is a game you don’t lose, a home game to your hated rival. I will give Herm credit though, he is taking a lot of heat for not kicking the game tying field goal, but I think it took a lot of guts to try to go for the win, and like he says: “you play to win the game!”
Minnesota at NY Giants
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Minnesota |
32% |
5% |
2.9 |
48 |
55% |
6% |
8.0 |
122 |
30 |
| NY Giants |
45% |
15% |
3.2 |
90 |
34% |
13% |
4.5 |
55 |
9 |
Impression: Eli Manning had three touchdown passes...only they were for the other team on interceptions.
Mike:
I saw some of the highlight shows talk up the Vikings offense, as if it had a break-out game, but Chester Taylor averaged less then 3 yards per gain, and Tavaris Jackson only threw 12 passes. This game was won by the much maligned Minnesota pass defense, which came up with 3 INTs for touchdowns.
Seattle at St. Louis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Seattle |
38% |
6% |
4.8 |
88 |
44% |
7% |
5.0 |
86 |
25 |
| St. Louis |
29% |
3% |
3.3 |
41 |
40% |
5% |
4.4 |
73 |
6 |
Impression: no one giving the Seahawks any props but maybe they can be a factor in the NFC post-season? They did make it to a Super Bowl not so long ago.
Mike:
The Rams had the ball, 4th and goal at the 1 yard line, with under 1 minute to play, and down 5 points. Here’s the play I think they called: ‘clinching of the 2nd overall pick of the draft, on 2’, and then Gus Frerotte promptly fumbled the ball and ended the game.
Washington at Tampa Bay
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Washington |
48% |
10% |
4.0 |
79 |
45% |
6% |
5.4 |
81 |
19 |
| Tampa Bay |
45% |
17% |
4.1 |
95 |
32% |
4% |
3.7 |
56 |
14 |
Impression: the WRONG TEAM WON! No matter, Bucs defense is good.
Mike:
I’ve talked for weeks about the Redskins deficiencies in the 2nd half of games, so this week they finally came through, out-scoring the Bucs 10-0 in the 2nd half, unfortunately they didn’t show up in the first half of the game. Washington fumbled twice in the 1st quarter, allowing Tampa Bay to score their first 10 points on a shortened field. Jeff Garcia continues to make his coach proud; he went out with a back injury early in the game and eventually returned in the 4th quarter to help seal the victory. Only up 6 points, the Tampa Bay defense came up with INTs on Washington’s last 2 drives of the game.
San Francisco at Arizona
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| San Francisco |
52% |
20% |
5.3 |
100 |
53% |
7% |
5.8 |
116 |
32 |
| Arizona |
66% |
0% |
4.0 |
87 |
49% |
11% |
8.6 |
111 |
29 |
Impression: Crazy game. I wouldn't have thought the 49ers would score 37 points the rest of the season let alone in one game.
Mike:
This game was a great departure from their first meeting. In week 1, both teams predominately ran I-formations, tried to keep mistakes to a minimum and let their defense win the game for them. In this game, the Cardinals ran their offense as if they were down 21 points at all times (which suits Warner’s style), and the 49ers came out in a lot of spread formations, passing the ball nearly 40 times. Last week I mentioned that San Francisco had the worst offensive coordinator in the league, and this week the 49ers hired Ted Tollner as a special consultant to help Hostler and they scored 37 points (they hadn’t scored more then 20 all year).
Baltimore at San Diego
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Baltimore |
50% |
5% |
2.8 |
75 |
43% |
3% |
4.4 |
94 |
19 |
| San Diego |
28% |
3% |
1.9 |
31 |
54% |
9% |
7.1 |
125 |
26 |
Impression: End of the Bilick days in Baltimore?
Mike:
I was pretty impressed with the way Phillip Rivers handled himself under pressure, something that has plagued him all year. Against a team that blitzes frequently, Rivers went 25 for 35, 3 TDs no INTs, and helped convert 7 of 15 3rd downs. The Chargers defense attacked the line of scrimmage and shut down the Ravens running game early. I’m surprised that the offensive genius, Brian Billick, kept having Boller take 5-step drops every time he threw the ball, allowing San Diego to tee-off for 4 sacks.
Philadelphia at New England
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Philadelphia |
38% |
6% |
3.0 |
66 |
53% |
7% |
7.4 |
111 |
22 |
| New England |
38% |
8% |
2.4 |
84 |
53% |
7% |
6.1 |
113 |
31 |
Impression: Pats got another scare but look good for 16-0.
Mike:
Philadelphia attacked the New England defense with a spread offense and they attacked Brady on defense with a lot of different blitzes and bumped his receivers at the line. All of this worked and the Patriots still won.
Miami at Pittsburgh
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Miami |
30% |
4% |
2.1 |
52 |
35% |
11% |
4.1 |
71 |
10 |
| Pittsburgh |
43% |
0% |
2.4 |
56 |
50% |
4% |
4.0 |
67 |
13 |
Impression: Ha! Worst NFL game EVER. Monday night football has been stinkers this year.
Mike:
The playing field was so bad in Pittsburgh that a punted ball hit the ground and stuck. It didn’t bounce. The ball came down and stuck to the ground like a lawn dart. They looked like they were playing on a soccer field; no hash marks, no yard markers, and a ball came down and landed like a brick. Take a look at all the close games Miami has been in, it’ll make you sick.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Ten
- Week That Was: Week Nine
- Week That Was: Week Eight
- Week That Was: Week Seven
- Week That Was: Week Six
- Week That Was: Week Five
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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