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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Thirteen
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Green Bay at Dallas
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Green Bay |
50% |
6% |
6.1 |
111 |
44% |
7% |
5.7 |
83 |
16 |
| Dallas |
46% |
12% |
4.1 |
73 |
55% |
24% |
11.3 |
161 |
49 |
Impression: Dallas much the better team
Mike: Kind of sad to think that the Packers were better off once Favre left the game with an injury. Everybody knows that the Cowboys secondary is their weakness, and that they can be beat deep down the field (something Green Bay excels at), but the Cowboys played deep and Favre kept forcing the ball in to double coverage. Dallas didn’t have any problem with the Green Bay defense. The Packers were missing Charles Woodson, but I don’t know that it mattered much; nobody has stopped the Cowboys offense this year.
San Francisco at Carolina
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| San Francisco |
37% |
19% |
3.9 |
75 |
36% |
8% |
3.9 |
38 |
6 |
| Carolina |
47% |
7% |
4.0 |
71 |
42% |
11% |
4.8 |
53 |
17 |
Impression: San Francisco had the one week breakout last week, now back to normal losing ways. Shakeup coming in offseason.
Mike: The Panthers finally won at home! The 49ers get beat by a 44-year old QB, who at one point lined up at wide-receiver. A week after getting some help from Ted Tollner and scoring a season-high 37 points, the 9ers went back to their inept ways, totaling less then 200 yards on offense and limiting Gore to 12 carries. Oh, and they had 6 turnovers.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Jacksonville |
70% |
17% |
5.6 |
130 |
66% |
9% |
7.3 |
130 |
43 |
| Indianapolis |
43% |
4% |
2.8 |
60 |
62% |
16% |
8.7 |
146 |
32 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! And in a big game at that. Could make for an interesting and upsetting playoff rematch.
Mike: You just can’t make mistakes if you expect to beat the Colts. The Jaguars went down early after a fumble gave the Colts a 14 point lead, but at the beginning of the 4th quarter Jacksonville was only down 7 and had 1st & 10 inside the red-zone; two penalties and a failed 3rd down conversion later, they have to settle for a field goal and the Colts score a touchdown on their next possession. Game over, despite 250 yards by Gerrard on 24 of 29 passing, and 156 yards rushing between Taylor & Jones-Drew.
San Diego at Kansas City
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| San Diego |
36% |
17% |
6.4 |
93 |
33% |
13% |
5.7 |
70 |
22 |
| Kansas City |
50% |
4% |
3.0 |
65 |
36% |
6% |
3.8 |
44 |
3 |
Impression: Chiefs useless. I don't see San Diego challenging the true AFC powers.
Mike: A dominating performance by the Chargers on both the offensive and defensive lines. Tomlinson had one of his best games of the season. What was swept under the rug in the highlight shows was Rivers’ horrible numbers in this game. He only completed 10 of 21 passes and threw 1 INT. He has had QB ratings of less then 75 in 4 out of the last 5 games. The Chargers are heading in the right direction, just not sure he is.
NY Jets at Miami
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Jets |
43% |
10% |
4.0 |
84 |
45% |
10% |
7.0 |
90 |
28 |
| Miami |
52% |
0% |
2.2 |
70 |
45% |
2% |
3.6 |
42 |
3 |
Impression: This one figured to be the one Miami had a chance in. Now I think we will see a 16-0 team and an 0-16 team for the first time ever... in the same season.
Mike: The Dolphins were favored in this game?! I can’t believe Cam Cameron, he was so optimistic before the game, and after the game he was absolutely shell-shocked that they had lost (he started the post-game press conference stammering). Your team was 0-11 entering the week, why are you surprised?! Please let this team be winless going in to the last week of the season!
Detroit at Minnesota
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Detroit |
42% |
14% |
3.1 |
71 |
58% |
5% |
5.9 |
125 |
22 |
| Minnesota |
54% |
29% |
5.7 |
131 |
67% |
14% |
8.6 |
150 |
55 |
Impression: Detroit a complete fraud team. Minnesota building nicely for the future.
Mike: Adrian Peterson leads the league in rushing, despite being the back-up running back and missing 2 ½ games. He only got 1 more carry then Chester Taylor in this game yet he gained 46 more yards. Unbelievable. The Lions were unbelievable in their own regard; they decided to run the ball only 6 times.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tampa Bay |
48% |
16% |
5.8 |
92 |
46% |
9% |
6.5 |
104 |
27 |
| New Orleans |
57% |
10% |
4.0 |
90 |
50% |
7% |
5.0 |
96 |
24 |
Impression: Tampa with a three game division lead after this big win.
Mike: This is the second time that I’ve seen Reggie Bush throw a game, the first being the Rose Bowl vs. Texas when he tossed a lateral to nobody. In this game, with the Saints up 3 and the game in hand, he pitched the ball behind Devery Henderson on a reverse, which kept the Saints from going down the field and kicking a field goal to cover. A big win for the Bucs, on the road, without Jeff Garcia. You would think that with such a good defense Tampa Bay would play conservative on offense, but they play very aggressively, having their backup QB throw for over 300 yards on 37 passes.
Seattle at Philadelphia
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Seattle |
34% |
17% |
4.3 |
86 |
44% |
8% |
5.1 |
83 |
22 |
| Philadelphia |
48% |
12% |
5.2 |
96 |
33% |
8% |
5.1 |
52 |
11 |
Impression: Eagles are done for the present.
Mike: Lofa Tatupu had 3 INTs for the ‘hawks in this game, the 3rd of which came at the goal line with under a minute to play. The Eagles got inside the red-zone with a 64-yard punt return from Brian Westbrook, after the Seahawks failed to gain a first down when Shaun Alexander gained 3 yards on 3 plays. Neither team deserved to win this game with the way they played defense.
Atlanta at St. Louis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Atlanta |
33% |
17% |
6.1 |
83 |
33% |
9% |
5.0 |
70 |
8 |
| St. Louis |
41% |
4% |
4.4 |
70 |
59% |
16% |
8.3 |
124 |
37 |
Impression: Horrible teams both.
Mike: Each team punted 8 times in this game. The Falcons punted in 7 of their first 8 possessions, then came out in the 4th quarter and scored touchdowns on 2 straight drives. Each team had 16 possessions, compare that to the Indianapolis & Jacksonville game, they had only 8 each.
Houston at Tennessee
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Houston |
40% |
12% |
4.9 |
84 |
45% |
3% |
5.5 |
94 |
18 |
| Tennessee |
44% |
22% |
4.9 |
103 |
47% |
14% |
6.8 |
111 |
37 |
Impression: Mike is right on about the Titans, Haynesworth makes the difference to them.
Mike: Albert Haynesworth was back in the lineup and the Titans were back to dominating the trenches. The Houston defensive line should be ashamed of themselves; they were blown off the line on nearly every play. I heard the highlight shows give Vince Young a lot of credit in this game, but he had all day to throw.
Buffalo at Washington
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Buffalo |
42% |
14% |
3.6 |
76 |
44% |
8% |
7.2 |
102 |
25 |
| Washington |
27% |
3% |
2.3 |
51 |
47% |
10% |
5.6 |
97 |
18 |
Impression: Skins could not pull it out but love the ten man defense tribute on the first play. Classy.
Mike: The Redskins were in complete control of this game until the 4th qtr. Then the Bills kicked field goal after field goal, the last coming with 4 seconds left in the game. The Redskins died a slow death this afternoon, their season likely doing the same.
Cleveland at Arizona
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cleveland |
50% |
5% |
3.7 |
90 |
48% |
12% |
6.9 |
104 |
30 |
| Arizona |
48% |
17% |
3.8 |
79 |
43% |
0% |
5.6 |
79 |
15 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! Absolutely true. Browns much the best.
Mike: Kellen Winslow was forced out! How can a play like that not be reviewed?! These teams are two of the more entertaining teams in the league; lots of big plays, lots of turnovers, and dramatic endings. It’s a shame it’s not going to be on NFL Replay.
Denver at Oakland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Denver |
48% |
0% |
3.1 |
85 |
36% |
9% |
6.2 |
57 |
6 |
| Oakland |
30% |
10% |
3.9 |
61 |
58% |
7% |
6.9 |
134 |
38 |
Impression: Broncos the schizos of the NFL this year.
Mike: I can’t believe how good the Raiders looked. The defense was solid, McCown threw for 3 touchdowns, and Huggy Bear’s kid had 146 yards rushing! As I have for most of the season, I can’t comment on the Broncos because I just can’t figure them out. Two weeks ago they were tied for the division lead and on the way up, now after losing two straight games to teams with losing records their season is nearly done.
NY Giants at Chicago
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Giants |
45% |
8% |
4.5 |
83 |
51% |
3% |
6.5 |
100 |
26 |
| Chicago |
47% |
0% |
2.9 |
65 |
38% |
12% |
4.8 |
90 |
17 |
Impression: Giants quietly establishing themselves as a quality NFC Team. Manning v Manning SB?
Mike: Much like the Redskins, the Bears had control through most of this game, and then they allowed New York to score 2 touchdowns in the 4th quarter. I want to give the Giants defense the credit they deserve for helping this team get back in the game, but the Bears offense needs to do better then to have four 3 & outs in the second half, with two of them coming in the 4th quarter (and going for negative yardage!).
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cincinnati |
52% |
5% |
3.6 |
80 |
33% |
2% |
3.8 |
68 |
10 |
| Pittsburgh |
32% |
3% |
3.0 |
48 |
58% |
0% |
5.7 |
111 |
27 |
Impression: Cincinnati may see serious changes in the offseason.
Mike: Some might view this as a bounce back game for the Steelers, but if not for another outstanding effort by Roethlisberger, and 11 catches by Hines Ward, the Steelers would have looked bad for a 4th straight week. The defense did enough to contain Carson Palmer, but it was raining; I think the defense can do the job against the Pats next week, but the offensive line needs to do a better job.
New England at Baltimore
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New England |
66% |
0% |
2.8 |
87 |
43% |
11% |
5.4 |
82 |
12 |
| Baltimore |
51% |
11% |
4.4 |
102 |
47% |
13% |
9.1 |
130 |
45 |
Impression: Baltimore really shows up for this one and takes NE to the edge. Questionable calls bail out the Patriots.
Mike: Unbelievable ending! The timeout & the false start on consecutive 4th down plays that the Patriots wouldn’t have converted! The holding call on the 4th down pass that was incomplete in the end zone! The touchdown catch that needed to be reviewed! Bart Scott throwing the ref’s flag in to the crowd, getting assessed 2 unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, allowing New England to kickoff from the Baltimore 35! Derrik Mason pushing defenders out of the way enabling Mark Clayton to catch a hail-mary at the New England 2 yard line to end the game! Ridiculous!
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Twelve
- Week That Was: Week Eleven
- Week That Was: Week Ten
- Week That Was: Week Nine
- Week That Was: Week Eight
- Week That Was: Week Seven
- Week That Was: Week Six
- Week That Was: Week Five
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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