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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Fourteen
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Chicago at Washington
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Chicago |
31% |
5% |
2.3 |
50 |
48% |
6% |
5.7 |
87 |
10 |
| Washington |
22% |
0% |
1.3 |
27 |
46% |
15% |
7.8 |
128 |
29 |
Impression: Bears had a fast rise and now a plummeting descent.
Mike: Both starting QBs got hurt in the 1st half, yet neither team decided it would be a good idea to run the ball more often in the 2nd half, especially the Redskins, who had the lead. The Redskins defense shut down the Bears in the first half, and though Chicago scored on each of their last 4 possessions, they limited 3 of those to FGs. Amazing job by Todd Collins, who hadn’t played in 3 years, to come off the bench and be an effective 15/20 for 224 yards and 2 TDs.
Miami at Buffalo
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Miami |
40% |
10% |
3.2 |
85 |
32% |
4% |
3.1 |
34 |
3 |
| Buffalo |
64% |
13% |
5.7 |
115 |
34% |
9% |
7.1 |
112 |
36 |
Impression: Sad state in Miami when they don't even show up with so much humiliation in store if they go 0-16. I think it's a lock at this point.
Mike: The Dolphins couldn’t have had a worse 1st quarter. They fumble a punt and 3 plays later, touchdown Buffalo. After giving up another touchdown on defense, Buffalo takes a ‘fumble’ and returns it 20 yards for a touchdown (the ball slipped out of Beck’s hand as he went to pass, but it almost looks like a handoff to the blitzing Safety). And Buffalo had a punt return for a touchdown called back! I feel bad for this team, but I love that it’s happening to Mercury Morris’ team.
St. Louis at Cincinnati
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| St. Louis |
36% |
4% |
3.1 |
40 |
33% |
3% |
4.2 |
63 |
3 |
| Cincinnati |
48% |
15% |
5.9 |
109 |
48% |
6% |
6.5 |
64 |
26 |
Impression: Eh, Rams don't care.
Mike: Pat Summerall on the Cincy weather, “those at home in front their fire place, made a good choice.” Listening to Summerall’s dull mono-tone broadcast, I would say that it was a toss-up. The string of St. Louis injuries apparently isn’t limited to their players; secondary coach Willy Robinson hurt a thigh muscle while running through the tunnel at halftime and had to watch the second half from the booth.
Dallas at Detroit
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Dallas |
60% |
7% |
4.8 |
113 |
64% |
4% |
6.1 |
143 |
46 |
| Detroit |
53% |
16% |
4.7 |
106 |
45% |
5% |
6.4 |
108 |
27 |
Impression: the wrong team covered. Cowboys lucky to win but had the stats edge.
Mike: The Lions did everything they needed to win this game, except nail a 35-yard field goal that would have wrapped it up. Tony Romo bailed out the defense by leading the offense 83 yards for the game-winning touchdown. The Cowboys had fewer yards then the Lions, less time of possession, and lost the turnover battle, yet they were somehow able to pull out an important road win.
Oakland at Green Bay
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Oakland |
34% |
3% |
2.5 |
34 |
34% |
15% |
5.3 |
57 |
3 |
| Green Bay |
45% |
14% |
4.5 |
89 |
54% |
21% |
11.2 |
137 |
37 |
Impression: So much for the Raiders revival.
Mike: The Green Bay defensive line dominated the line of scrimmage in this game, giving McCown absolutely no chance in the pocket. The Packers offense controlled the clock and was surprisingly well-balanced, and the special teams came through with 2 touchdowns. Ryan Grant had 156 yards on 29 carries. Watching the Packers at home, I always get the feeling every break goes their way.
Tampa Bay at Houston
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tampa Bay |
43% |
13% |
3.8 |
100 |
53% |
5% |
5.7 |
106 |
33 |
| Houston |
23% |
0% |
2.7 |
30 |
64% |
0% |
4.7 |
105 |
14 |
Impression: the WRONG TEAM WON!
Mike: What a difference Jeff Garcia makes. McCown could not hold up under all the pressure the Texans brought. For some reason, the Bucs defense just isn’t the same on the road.
Carolina at Jacksonville
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Carolina |
37% |
13% |
2.5 |
56 |
32% |
0% |
2.6 |
45 |
0 |
| Jacksonville |
45% |
14% |
5.6 |
94 |
46% |
12% |
6.2 |
109 |
33 |
Impression: Yikes there are some really bad teams this year.
Mike: A walk in the park for the Jaguars, they were dominant in all aspects of this game. The defense held the Panthers to under 100 yards in both passing and rushing. I think the Jaguars are a threat to both the Pats and the Colts.
Pittsburgh at New England
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Pittsburgh |
56% |
13% |
5.4 |
96 |
43% |
5% |
4.6 |
82 |
14 |
| New England |
37% |
13% |
2.2 |
75 |
59% |
10% |
8.1 |
142 |
43 |
Impression: Patriots-Colts is the only AFC game that will count. Maybe the Packers can sneak up on someone in the SB? Remember St. Louis getting stung by the Patriots as double digit favorites.
Mike: Anthony Smith, what a shmuck. As if the Pats needed any more motivation. This was supposed to be New England’s biggest test, but it ended up being a walk in the park by the 4th quarter. The New England defensive line got a lot of penetration on passing downs and the Patriot offensive line figured out Pittsburgh’s zone blitz, and that was the difference, as Brady was given the time in the pocket to make the big plays.
NY Giants at Philadelphia
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Giants |
36% |
8% |
4.1 |
60 |
38% |
9% |
6.3 |
97 |
16 |
| Philadelphia |
57% |
23% |
5.1 |
119 |
40% |
0% |
4.9 |
85 |
31 |
Impression: the WRONG TEAM WON!
Mike: This was a defensive struggle that resulted in nine 3-&-outs. The Eagles did a decent job of being balanced on offense, but you can not go in to 3rd down needing to pass against this Giants defense, they’re too good at getting at the QB. The Eagles do all the right things to lose games, like allowing a big punt return at the end of the half, allowing the Giants to kick a field goal, and kicking the game-tying field goal off the upright at the end of the game.
San Diego at Tennessee
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| San Diego |
41% |
17% |
5.1 |
86 |
38% |
6% |
4.1 |
55 |
18 |
| Tennessee |
44% |
3% |
3.6 |
75 |
37% |
0% |
4.0 |
33 |
6 |
Impression: Tennessee offense is pathetic. Good thing they have a defense.
Mike: This was a really ugly game, the type of game the Titans like to play, but they could not get the job done in the 4th quarter as the Chargers scored 2 touchdowns to tie it and 1 in overtime to steal one from Tennessee. I think the Titans defense merely got tired in the 4th quarter, due in large part to the inability of the offense to sustain either drive they had, and a big part of that blame can go to Vince Young for not completing a pass in either one.
Minnesota at San Francisco
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Minnesota |
21% |
7% |
3.5 |
32 |
46% |
4% |
6.3 |
107 |
19 |
| San Francisco |
42% |
5% |
3.7 |
68 |
52% |
2% |
4.2 |
72 |
14 |
Impression: Not as bad in the stats as in real life. Niners housecleaning will be big once the season is done. New coach, new front office, and new QB when they pass on the A.Smith option.
Mike: The 49ers only gained 79 yards in the first half. Yikes. Frank Gore had nearly 1700 rushing yards last year, and this year he has less then half of that. Another QB goes down for the 49ers, but surprisingly, Shaun Hill came in and completed 22 of 28 passes for 180 yards and 1 touchdown.
Arizona at Seattle
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Arizona |
33% |
0% |
3.3 |
60 |
50% |
11% |
5.5 |
85 |
8 |
| Seattle |
40% |
8% |
3.0 |
68 |
54% |
11% |
7.8 |
137 |
41 |
Impression: Seahawks quietly getting ready for the games that count.
Mike: This game got out of hand really quick. Everything went right for the Seahawks in the first half, as Matt Hasselbeck went 14 for 18. Kurt Warner had 5 INTs. A big game for the Cards next week; they visit New Orleans.
Kansas City at Denver
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Kansas City |
17% |
0% |
0.9 |
23 |
26% |
3% |
3.3 |
41 |
9 |
| Denver |
51% |
16% |
6.5 |
106 |
68% |
14% |
8.3 |
186 |
42 |
Impression: Denver still with a playoff prayer but need Cleveland to lose. Good luck on that.
Mike: Like I said last week, I’m not going to sit here and pretend to figure out the Broncos, they’re just too inconsistent. I have figured out the Chiefs though, they suck.
Cleveland at NY Jets
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cleveland |
44% |
15% |
5.7 |
100 |
39% |
3% |
5.8 |
86 |
21 |
| NY Jets |
50% |
13% |
3.9 |
86 |
50% |
7% |
6.2 |
97 |
26 |
Impression: the WRONG TEAM WON! But Browns are the feel good story of 2007. Lose 34-7 at home in week one but wind up in the playoffs.
Mike: This was a pretty good game, but I can’t believe Mangini’s decision at the end of the game. Down 5 points, the Jets recover an on-side kick, but can’t go down the field and score a touchdown, so they settle for a field goal, and they have to attempt another on-side kick, which they don’t recover. Did Mangini really think that the odds of recovering another on-side kick were better then converting a 4th & 10?!
Indianapolis at Baltimore
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Indianapolis |
28% |
8% |
2.4 |
56 |
72% |
14% |
12.4 |
208 |
45 |
| Baltimore |
41% |
3% |
2.8 |
62 |
51% |
5% |
4.8 |
69 |
18 |
Impression: Ravens will see changes too.
Mike: It was nice of the Ravens to show up for 1 game this season, trying to keep the Pats honest. The Colts finally shook off the rust of the last few weeks and put together a nice looking win. I’ll say it right now, the Colts are going to beat the Pats in the AFC championship game. They have reversed their roles; the Colts are now the tougher team, and that’s what it’s going to take to win in January.
New Orleans at Atlanta
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New Orleans |
53% |
13% |
4.5 |
86 |
58% |
15% |
7.9 |
151 |
42 |
| Atlanta |
40% |
0% |
2.2 |
40 |
41% |
9% |
6.7 |
97 |
15 |
Impression: Another horrible Monday Night matchup. Who picks these games?
Mike: With Reggie Bush out, people thought the Saints rushing attack would take a big hit, but Aaron Stecker had a nice game, 100 yards on 20 rushes, and the Saints had 145 rushing yards overall. A really nice game for Brees as well, 28 for 41, 328 yards and 3 TDs.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Thirteen
- Week That Was: Week Twelve
- Week That Was: Week Eleven
- Week That Was: Week Ten
- Week That Was: Week Nine
- Week That Was: Week Eight
- Week That Was: Week Seven
- Week That Was: Week Six
- Week That Was: Week Five
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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