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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Fifteen
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Denver at Houston
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Denver |
45% |
5% |
3.6 |
85 |
40% |
5% |
5.3 |
93 |
15 |
| Houston |
53% |
18% |
5.7 |
132 |
44% |
19% |
7.4 |
114 |
44 |
Impression: Denver has no rhyme or reason.
Mike: What did I say about Denver?! You never know what you’re going to get. Where was the running game for the Broncos?! Chalk one up for Kubiak for out-Shanahaning Shanahan.
Cincinnati at San Francisco
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cincinnati |
33% |
0% |
3.4 |
55 |
56% |
12% |
7.9 |
137 |
29 |
| San Francisco |
61% |
9% |
4.6 |
102 |
58% |
0% |
6.2 |
110 |
32 |
Impression: SF may have found their QB of the future...and he isn't the former #1 pick.
Mike: It was kind of sad watching these two teams stumble around, considering that they had such great expectations for the season. I can’t believe that the Bengals would allow Frank Gore to run for over 100 yards, for only the 2nd time this season, when the 49ers had a QB starting his first NFL game.
Seattle at Carolina
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Seattle |
28% |
14% |
3.1 |
57 |
56% |
7% |
6.1 |
128 |
29 |
| Carolina |
17% |
3% |
2.6 |
25 |
57% |
4% |
7.6 |
132 |
24 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! You knew that already.
Mike: I have to give credit to the Carolina defense, I expected the Seahawks to walk all over them and this game was scoreless going in to the 4th quarter (and the Seahawks scored their TD with no time left, and of no consequence). The Seahawks RBs had 32 yards on 11 rushes. Pathetic.
Buffalo at Cleveland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Buffalo |
23% |
7% |
3.0 |
36 |
30% |
12% |
4.1 |
72 |
3 |
| Cleveland |
37% |
16% |
4.4 |
78 |
36% |
12% |
5.2 |
108 |
34 |
Impression: Browns are looking good. Could they even make a game of it against the AFC big boys?
Mike: The snow game! A great game to watch. Jamal Lewis running for 163 yards, Braylon Edwards diving for catches, Trent Edwards doing his beast Losman impression by trying to hit Evans on 50-yard bombs; but the most impressive part of the game was Phil Dawson’s FGs, one for 35 yards and the other for 49 yards! With the conditions the way they were, he had to kick them on a line-drive with little rotation, the 2nd of which looked like a screw ball the way it came back to the right before hitting the post.
Tennessee at Kansas City
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tennessee |
62% |
13% |
4.4 |
112 |
33% |
10% |
5.8 |
96 |
34 |
| Kansas City |
63% |
0% |
3.5 |
86 |
44% |
2% |
4.3 |
53 |
7 |
Impression: Kansas City not looking good. Could they even make a game of it against University of Hawaii?
Mike: Not a very impressive win for a team that is fighting for a playoff spot. You need to be improving as you work your way through the 2nd half of the season and this team seems markedly worse then they were the 1st half. Note to Chiefs fans: I don’t want to hear about how great the KC fans are and what a big home-field advantage it is, the stadium was half empty Sunday.
Baltimore at Miami
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Baltimore |
38% |
17% |
4.5 |
72 |
40% |
6% |
5.8 |
87 |
18 |
| Miami |
28% |
0% |
1.9 |
32 |
47% |
11% |
6.5 |
110 |
21 |
Impression: Miami avoids the winless humiliation. Good for them.
Mike: I don’t get the Super Bowl celebration at the end of the game. I would be relieved that it was over, but I would still be embarrassed. Brian Billick should be fired. Did you see him yelling at his players to get off the field because they wanted to go for the win at the end of the game?! They had the ball inside the 1 yard line and their 3rd string QB was in the game; you’re on the road – GO FOR THE WIN!
NY Jets at New England
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Jets |
41% |
6% |
5.2 |
70 |
42% |
0% |
2.9 |
51 |
6 |
| New England |
54% |
3% |
3.7 |
80 |
37% |
3% |
4.7 |
58 |
17 |
Impression: Did New England peak too soon?
Mike: I don’t really want to talk about this game, it was over-hyped and it was boring. I want to talk about the Pats no longer being a cold weather team. Actually, their defense is built for the weather, because they’re slow, but the offense was built to run on a track and they suffered this week because of it. The Pats have become the Colts of 2002 – 2005, and the Colts have built their team to be what used to work for New England, a tough running game supported by an efficient passing game. The Colts will beat the Pats in New England, I guarantee it.
Arizona at New Orleans
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Arizona |
45% |
9% |
4.0 |
68 |
40% |
9% |
4.9 |
82 |
20 |
| New Orleans |
57% |
15% |
4.4 |
111 |
70% |
16% |
9.9 |
193 |
53 |
Impression: Did New Orleans peak too late?
Mike: Watching these two ‘potential’ wild-card teams play (as well as the Giants) has led me to think that we should skip the first round of the NFC playoffs this year. You need to play defense to win.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Jacksonville |
48% |
20% |
5.2 |
97 |
39% |
6% |
5.9 |
93 |
28 |
| Pittsburgh |
43% |
25% |
5.3 |
93 |
32% |
5% |
3.2 |
62 |
13 |
Impression: Does Pittsburgh not scare anyone at this point?
Mike: The Jaguars beat the Steelers with their own game, a physical beat down. I’m not sure why there were so many doubters this week, almost every ‘expert’ picked Pittsburgh, but they haven’t been playing well of late. The Steelers aren’t a very well-rounded team, they depend on Roethlisberger too much to make plays on the run and their secondary plays too close to the line. The Jaguars had 224 yards rushing in this game, but they also threw the ball well.
Green Bay at St. Louis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Green Bay |
35% |
5% |
2.7 |
55 |
49% |
12% |
7.5 |
96 |
19 |
| St. Louis |
60% |
10% |
5.8 |
106 |
40% |
4% |
4.0 |
57 |
16 |
Impression: Do the Packers scare everyone?
Mike: The Packers know how to get things done; they held the ball nearly 13 minutes less then the Rams, lost the turnover battle, and had 80 yards less offense, but they made some key adjustments at halftime and beat a pesky St. Louis team in a dome.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Atlanta |
35% |
15% |
5.3 |
80 |
17% |
0% |
1.8 |
-24 |
0 |
| Tampa Bay |
58% |
7% |
3.9 |
84 |
46% |
0% |
4.5 |
71 |
28 |
Impression: Atlanta had a chance to come out and show their quitting coach they were fine without him. Um, poor effort guys.
Mike: In my eyes, the Falcons get a pass for the rest of the season, they can mail it in (which is exactly why I put money on TB the minute I heard Petrino was resigning). What I couldn’t understand was why the Bucs felt it necessary to run up the score; is the blood that bad between these two teams?!
Indianapolis at Oakland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Indianapolis |
38% |
11% |
3.0 |
72 |
40% |
11% |
6.1 |
100 |
24 |
| Oakland |
55% |
3% |
3.6 |
78 |
48% |
3% |
3.3 |
74 |
15 |
Impression: Raiders even had the lead late in this but couldn't stop the Colts 91-yd drive.
Mike: It’s scary to see how easy it is for Manning to ‘turn it on’ when he needs to and take his team down for a game-winning drive. It’s also scary to see the Raiders shut down the Colts running game and also stuff the run down the Colts throat for 149 yards. I’m telling you though, the Colts are just taking a page out of the Belichik playbook, don’t show your hand in the regular season, save it for the second season.
Philadelphia at Dallas
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Philadelphia |
45% |
13% |
4.5 |
91 |
44% |
4% |
4.4 |
82 |
25 |
| Dallas |
28% |
7% |
2.0 |
28 |
31% |
5% |
4.9 |
41 |
0 |
Impression: Dallas sleepwalking and it may cost them home field vs the Packers.
Mike: Terrell Owens’ on the verge of a break-down, people asking for the head of Jessica Simpson, the Eagles beating them at home! Just what Packers fans wanted for Christmas, drama in big D. I don’t get Romo, he dumps Carrie Underwood at the beginning of the season because he doesn’t want it to interfere with his game, but he’s willing to risk it for Jessica Simpson?! She thinks buffalos have wings! Oh, and I don’t even want to start in on the Eagles, the team that shows up for the Pats and the Cowboys but can’t beat the Bears or Redskins at home.
Detroit at San Diego
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Detroit |
22% |
0% |
2.8 |
33 |
53% |
2% |
6.4 |
78 |
7 |
| San Diego |
52% |
18% |
5.5 |
108 |
56% |
9% |
6.7 |
126 |
40 |
Impression: Detroit exposed for the umpteenth time.
Mike: How pathetic are the Lions lately?! They just don’t get it; the Chargers scored 51 points and they didn’t have to pass 45 times (only 21), and they ran the ball more then 9 times, for 274 yards. If you wan to play a Cover-2 defense the way the Lions do, you have to be able to control the clock and sustain drives to rest your defense. Throwing it up every chance you get isn’t going to get the job done as a team.
Washington at NY Giants
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Washington |
45% |
12% |
4.6 |
87 |
22% |
11% |
5.7 |
74 |
16 |
| NY Giants |
57% |
11% |
4.9 |
100 |
27% |
0% |
3.3 |
70 |
21 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! With some possible playoff implications as well.
Mike: What an ugly game. The weather was bad, but there was no excuse for some of the passes that the Giants dropped. Manning was only 18 for 52, ugh. The Giants have done it again, they started hot and now they’re limping down the stretch. There was no energy on the field for the Giants. I have no praise for the Redskins, it’s too late in the season to start looking good.
Chicago at Minnesota
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Chicago |
23% |
0% |
1.8 |
41 |
45% |
0% |
4.3 |
75 |
8 |
| Minnesota |
41% |
10% |
3.5 |
70 |
40% |
9% |
7.9 |
65 |
15 |
Impression: More uninspired football.
Mike: I guess I can give some credit to the Vikings defense for shutting down the Bears offense, but is that really saying much?! They had their 3rd string QB and 2nd string RB in and they committed 8 penalties! And I’m supposed to believe the big headline was Adrian Peterson gaining 78 yards on 20 yards?! That’s less then 4 yards per carry. The story is that Minnesota was able to overcome a horrible 1st half because the Bears couldn’t do anything on offense.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Fourteen
- Week That Was: Week Thirteen
- Week That Was: Week Twelve
- Week That Was: Week Eleven
- Week That Was: Week Ten
- Week That Was: Week Nine
- Week That Was: Week Eight
- Week That Was: Week Seven
- Week That Was: Week Six
- Week That Was: Week Five
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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