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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Three
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Opening Remarks:
These are some big shoes to fill! Tim has been writing his week that was gig in his own unique style for many years apparently. I can't give it the same shake (fortunately some of you may be thinking) but will at least give you the same numbers to review.
Arizona at Baltimore
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Arizona |
35% |
14% |
4.3 |
92 |
46% |
12% |
6.9 |
116 |
30 |
| Baltimore |
50% |
14% |
4.1 |
89 |
54% |
7% |
6.3 |
114 |
31 |
The play success rate numbers are significantly different yet the "effectiveness ratings" are very similar. I am not sure what to make of that. Perhaps Arizona made more timely plays?
San Diego at Green Bay
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| San Diego |
39% |
4% |
2.2 |
57 |
58% |
10% |
7.6 |
133 |
25 |
| Green Bay |
75% |
0% |
3.5 |
108 |
46% |
12% |
7.1 |
124 |
40 |
All those who wrote off Favre and the Packers need to reconsider. All those who thought Tomlinson was the lock #1 fantasy pick are wrong.
Indianapolis at Houston
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Indianapolis |
36% |
0% |
2.7 |
50 |
56% |
13% |
9.0 |
140 |
35 |
| Houston |
41% |
0% |
2.3 |
70 |
59% |
3% |
5.4 |
91 |
16 |
Colts are getting it done. Three giants emerging in the AFC, all recent Super Bowl winners!
Minnesota at Kansas City
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Minnesota |
41% |
21% |
4.2 |
86 |
36% |
9% |
3.6 |
72 |
15 |
| Kansas City |
22% |
3% |
1.6 |
25 |
40% |
7% |
6.8 |
110 |
20 |
LJ can't be happy with the rushing numbers.
Buffalo at New England
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Buffalo |
48% |
7% |
4.0 |
74 |
43% |
4% |
3.6 |
56 |
15 |
| New England |
60% |
13% |
4.6 |
113 |
66% |
17% |
9.9 |
183 |
48 |
Brady-Moss a brilliant combo. Easy to do now but I said to myself that Randy Moss would be a great great pickup for the right situation.
Miami at NY Jets
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Miami |
60% |
17% |
4.8 |
121 |
56% |
13% |
8.1 |
151 |
49 |
| NY Jets |
60% |
11% |
4.1 |
97 |
56% |
4% |
5.4 |
130 |
32 |
THE WRONG TEAM WON! So far this season teams that won when they lost on the stats score are 2-2 against the spread the next week. Teams that lost when they won the stats score are 0-4!!! Go against Miami this week perhaps?
Detroit at Philadelphia
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Detroit |
36% |
18% |
3.4 |
90 |
36% |
11% |
6.7 |
84 |
25 |
| Philadelphia |
64% |
25% |
6.0 |
146 |
72% |
15% |
11.7 |
196 |
58 |
I wonder what the first half ratings are!
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| San Francisco |
33% |
5% |
3.1 |
57 |
34% |
13% |
5.8 |
92 |
12 |
| Pittsburgh |
56% |
19% |
6.4 |
106 |
47% |
9% |
6.5 |
134 |
45 |
My impression: San Francisco will be lucky to win six games.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| St. Louis |
58% |
6% |
4.0 |
88 |
37% |
0% |
4.0 |
44 |
9 |
| Tampa Bay |
63% |
17% |
6.1 |
130 |
52% |
0% |
6.3 |
134 |
42 |
My impression: St. Louis will be lucky to win five.
Jacksonville at Denver
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Jacksonville |
56% |
9% |
4.3 |
90 |
60% |
9% |
6.1 |
134 |
38 |
| Denver |
38% |
6% |
2.1 |
44 |
56% |
12% |
8.3 |
132 |
25 |
Denver doesn't look like a superpower anymore.
Cleveland at Oakland
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Cleveland |
38% |
17% |
4.2 |
72 |
44% |
16% |
6.6 |
97 |
16 |
| Oakland |
37% |
13% |
4.1 |
72 |
45% |
18% |
7.4 |
124 |
35 |
Great game if you saw it on TV.
Cincinnati at Seattle
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Cincinnati |
44% |
10% |
2.9 |
65 |
50% |
10% |
6.8 |
97 |
20 |
| Seattle |
56% |
13% |
4.5 |
82 |
46% |
5% |
6.1 |
89 |
23 |
Another tight game.
Carolina at Atlanta
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Carolina |
57% |
27% |
5.3 |
127 |
46% |
12% |
6.7 |
111 |
36 |
| Atlanta |
44% |
17% |
4.2 |
88 |
47% |
9% |
7.7 |
117 |
29 |
Impression: Carolina's 8-8 record last year is indicative of the type of team they are.
NY Giants at Washington
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| NY Giants |
41% |
7% |
3.3 |
82 |
37% |
10% |
5.7 |
75 |
18 |
| Washington |
26% |
8% |
2.8 |
46 |
33% |
11% |
5.1 |
77 |
11 |
Bad loss for Washington, blowing the momentum of the 2-0 start with the pushover opponent ready for the taking on number three.
Dallas at Chicago
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Dallas |
44% |
8% |
4.9 |
80 |
42% |
12% |
6.5 |
104 |
31 |
| Chicago |
39% |
4% |
2.3 |
56 |
42% |
9% |
5.0 |
62 |
3 |
So long Chicago, hello Dallas!
Tennessee at New Orleans
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Tennessee |
46% |
9% |
3.1 |
71 |
53% |
4% |
7.1 |
130 |
35 |
| New Orleans |
40% |
0% |
1.6 |
73 |
51% |
2% |
4.5 |
57 |
8 |
Saints have turned back into pumpkins. Titans a team that gets it done. Vince Young a keeper!
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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