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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Four
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Houston at Atlanta
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Houston |
40% |
10% |
4.2 |
60 |
57% |
7% |
7.5 |
135 |
30 |
| Atlanta |
46% |
7% |
3.2 |
73 |
52% |
12% |
6.9 |
120 |
29 |
THE WRONG TEAM WON! This season teams that won when they lost on the stats score are 2-3 against the spread the next week. Teams that lost when they won the stats score are 0-5!!! Go against Houston this week perhaps?
Mike: Just too many injuries for the Texans to overcome. Harrington looked solid for the second week in a row. Faggins is a liability for the Texans in the secondary, as teams continue to pick on him. Play of the game: Petrino gets the game ball for winning his first game and benching Hall in the 1st quarter.
NY Jets at Buffalo
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Jets |
47% |
5% |
3.1 |
73 |
54% |
7% |
6.3 |
95 |
17 |
| Buffalo |
33% |
7% |
3.2 |
51 |
70% |
10% |
7.3 |
133 |
34 |
Buffalo's rookie QB looks great. Much better than his years of getting sacked at Stanford.
Mike: A scoreless first half prompted the Jets to abandon the run and it ultimately hurt them. Buffalo maintained their balance and won a big game for a rookie QB and an Offensive Coordinator who has been criticized for his play-calling of late. Play of the game: the Bills, up 10-7 in the 4th, score on a play-fake on 4th down and goal from the 1!
Baltimore at Cleveland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Baltimore |
50% |
20% |
4.9 |
95 |
50% |
2% |
5.7 |
103 |
26 |
| Cleveland |
29% |
11% |
3.6 |
66 |
47% |
16% |
10.8 |
115 |
27 |
Squeaker on the stats score. Not so close in real life.
Mike: Zero sacks for the Ravens in this game. That is the big story in this game and for the season. They lost Adalius Thomas to the Pats and Trevor Pryce is hurt. The Ravens play man-to-man on the outside and get burned when they can’t get to the QB ; Anderson hit Edwards and Winslow on passes of 78 and 49 yards respectively (the Bengals do the same thing to them). Play of the Game: a 1 yard plunge by Jamal Lewis to make it 24-3 in the 1st half. Sweet, sweet revenge.
St. Louis at Dallas
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| St. Louis |
40% |
5% |
3.2 |
65 |
32% |
3% |
3.3 |
52 |
10 |
| Dallas |
43% |
13% |
4.9 |
93 |
63% |
14% |
9.7 |
163 |
43 |
Long year for St. Louis. Long year (in a good way, eg lots of playoff games) for Dallas?
Mike: The Rams got crushed, that’s all you really need to know. They definitely missed Jackson; their only score came on a return. Play of the game: 3rd and 3 at mid-field, Romo recovers a bad snap 33 yards behind the line of scrimmage and still scrambles for the 1st down!
Chicago at Detroit
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Chicago |
36% |
5% |
3.1 |
63 |
48% |
2% |
4.0 |
65 |
7 |
| Detroit |
48% |
8% |
3.3 |
88 |
58% |
13% |
6.9 |
132 |
40 |
Bears QB isn't the problem after all.
Mike: This game was 13 -3 Bears at the end of 3! It won’t matter who is at QB for the Bears, the receivers aren’t running good routes and the offensive line can not block. Seven of eleven starters on defense for the Bears were out due to injury, and they still played as well as the Lions D. Play of the game: Devin Hester takes a kickoff 97 yards to the house. He now has more touchdowns then any player on offense.
Oakland at Miami
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Oakland |
58% |
13% |
6.1 |
110 |
37% |
6% |
4.3 |
93 |
32 |
| Miami |
50% |
20% |
7.0 |
100 |
32% |
7% |
4.5 |
39 |
6 |
Impression: Oakland could be decent under the new coach.
Mike: The Dolphins give up 179 yards to Huggy Bear’s kid?! And that was after Lamont Jordan got hurt, who had 74 yards up to that point. Zach Thomas was out, but that’s no excuse for letting a career back-up go Jim Brown on you. They are not any better on offense. During one play I think I saw Green give up on looking for a receiver and just waited to be hit. Play of the game: Culpepper showing the Miami crowd that his knee is o.k. and rushing for 3 touchdowns.
Green Bay at Minnesota
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Green Bay |
16% |
6% |
2.2 |
38 |
51% |
9% |
7.2 |
123 |
22 |
| Minnesota |
57% |
14% |
7.3 |
119 |
41% |
2% |
4.8 |
75 |
25 |
THE WRONG TEAM WON! But Minnesota gets a bye so no go against.
Mike: A simple mismatch, the Vikings can only stop the run on defense, and Green Bay doesn’t run. I’m surprised the Vikings didn’t try to run a little more, because Adrian Peterson is the real deal. Once the Packers pass rush got to Holcomb in the 2nd half this game was over. Play of the game: Favre to Greg Jennings in the 1st quarter for the record-breaking touchdown.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tampa Bay |
50% |
15% |
4.6 |
90 |
49% |
4% |
6.8 |
111 |
29 |
| Carolina |
31% |
11% |
3.3 |
57 |
29% |
4% |
2.8 |
35 |
3 |
Tampa Bay defense has put together solid efforts.
Mike: For those who haven’t figured it out yet, Carolina is overrated. I know they were missing Delhomme, but they haven’t had good offensive line play the last couple of years and it really hurts them. Oh, and if they want to throw the ball down field, David Carr is the wrong guy. Tampa Bay is flying around on defense, shutting down the pass and getting great pressure on the QB. They are also getting great play out of their offensive line; it won’t matter that Cadillac Williams is out, they will keep rollin’. Play of the game: I’d give a Madden type of selection out to the offensive line who didn’t allow a single sack.
Seattle at San Francisco
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Seattle |
29% |
9% |
2.8 |
47 |
50% |
9% |
8.1 |
105 |
25 |
| San Francisco |
31% |
21% |
5.7 |
68 |
27% |
5% |
1.6 |
25 |
0 |
Impression: my impression last week was correct. SF in trouble after the 2-0 start. New forecast: 4-12
Mike: Alex Smith gets knocked out of the game on the first series, and the 49ers offense never gets off the ground, though it doesn’t matter who your QB is when your wide receivers can’t get open. The Seahawks found some holes in a SF secondary that up to that point had been very effective. Play of the game: Rocky Bernard does a belly-flop on top of Alex Smith.
Pittsburgh at Arizona
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Pittsburgh |
36% |
8% |
2.8 |
56 |
42% |
13% |
5.7 |
81 |
9 |
| Arizona |
50% |
0% |
3.6 |
87 |
48% |
8% |
5.8 |
100 |
32 |
This one must be a case of the ex-Pittsburgh coaches knowing too much about the old team. Pittsburgh > Arizona otherwise.
Mike: The Steelers are who Whisenhunt thought they were, a team that likes to take early leads passing down the field on play-action and running the ball to close out the game. Roethlisberger has said that there has been changes to the offense, but I don’t see it. The Steelers downfall was not taking in to account Kurt Warner – Super Sub; actually I think it had more to do with the abdominal strain that kept Polamalu out of the second half. Play of the Game: Adrian Wilson intercepts in the end zone on 3rd and 2 keeping the score at 7-7 in the 3rd.
Denver at Indianapolis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Denver |
58% |
22% |
6.1 |
122 |
54% |
5% |
5.6 |
104 |
25 |
| Indianapolis |
80% |
26% |
6.2 |
160 |
64% |
7% |
7.0 |
153 |
58 |
Impression: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh vs Dallas.
Mike: The Broncos led 10-0 at the end of the 1st quarter and that’s the last time this was a game. I don’t think Manning broke a sweat in the second half, they were just on cruise control. Not much to take away from this game except this: Indy is very good, and the Broncos not so much.
Kansas City at San Diego
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Kansas City |
53% |
8% |
4.9 |
80 |
40% |
16% |
8.0 |
106 |
26 |
| San Diego |
66% |
17% |
5.5 |
125 |
37% |
5% |
4.6 |
65 |
21 |
Maybe firing Marty Schottenheimer after 14-2 season wasn't a smart idea.
Mike: I heard a lot said about the Chargers mistake of not giving the ball to LT in the second half, but KC stacked the box and forced Rivers to throw, and he did not get the job done (and hasn’t at this point in the season). KC continued to grind it out the entire game; Larry Johnson looked like a man possessed. Play of the Game: 3rd and 19 from mid-field, Dwayne Bowe “slips” past the Chargers secondary after bringing in a pass on a slant route that gave KC a 23-16 lead early in the 4th.
Philadelphia at NY Giants
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Philadelphia |
52% |
19% |
5.3 |
109 |
28% |
0% |
1.7 |
40 |
7 |
| NY Giants |
52% |
4% |
3.1 |
68 |
48% |
3% |
5.7 |
93 |
26 |
Eagles a mystery. Giants have allowed fewer points each week (45, 35, 17, 3) so should be good for the shutout next game.
Mike: How do you give up 12 sacks! You need to max-protect, or throw more screens, or rollout…do something. How do you give up 12 sacks! McNabb is not healthy.
New England at Cincinnati
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New England |
63% |
10% |
5.9 |
113 |
60% |
9% |
6.6 |
118 |
38 |
| Cincinnati |
40% |
7% |
3.8 |
80 |
45% |
11% |
5.7 |
100 |
21 |
Patriots too too good.
Mike: A little closer then the actual score might indicate, but the Pats were just going through the motions. The Bengals are hurting on defense, getting especially thin at LB.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
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