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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Five
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Miami at Houston
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Miami |
40% |
16% |
5.4 |
96 |
41% |
6% |
4.4 |
70 |
17 |
| Houston |
37% |
0% |
2.2 |
55 |
48% |
10% |
6.4 |
92 |
20 |
Impression: Miami should be doing better with Ronnie Brown's impressive stats.
Mike: Trent Green leaves with a concussion and Travis Johnson adds insult to injury, what a jack-ass. Cleo Lemon was o.k. replacing Green, but the difference maker in this game was Matt Schaub. This game could have easily gone to OT, but Houston came out passing from their own 3 yard-line and drove 60 yards to set-up the game-winning kick. Game Ball: Kris Brown hits 5 field goals, 3 of them being over 50 yards, including a 57-yarder to win the game all after hurting his left foot on Houston’s first kickoff.
Jacksonville at Kansas City
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Jacksonville |
35% |
12% |
4.3 |
67 |
51% |
3% |
6.4 |
109 |
30 |
| Kansas City |
10% |
0% |
1.0 |
0 |
37% |
9% |
5.8 |
86 |
3 |
Impression: And the theory was that Larry Johnson was some kind of superstar. Football is a team game and running backs can't do it alone.
Mike: The Jags defense is back. The Chiefs only get 10 yards rushing on 10 attempts. Marcus Stroud and John Henderson dominated the K.C. offensive line. The Chiefs offense is very limited in what they can do if they aren’t gaining yards on the ground. The Jags offense isn’t that explosive but is very efficient, just the way Del Rio wants it.
Cleveland at New England
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cleveland |
57% |
16% |
4.5 |
105 |
42% |
9% |
6.1 |
91 |
21 |
| New England |
50% |
19% |
4.5 |
100 |
47% |
12% |
6.4 |
119 |
38 |
Impression: New England could go undefeated? On a mission to do just that?
Mike: This game could have been much closer then people realize. The Pats defense was the difference, creating 4 turnovers. The Browns offense moved the ball pretty well, thanks to a much improved offensive-line, but could not make the big plays the Pats D made. The Browns defense, most notably their front-4, held their own in this game, limiting the Pats to only 1 touchdown drive of more then 35 yards. Chalk bettors get a break with Randal Gay’s pick-6 with 52 seconds left.
Carolina at New Orleans
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Carolina |
25% |
7% |
3.0 |
40 |
52% |
9% |
6.7 |
104 |
22 |
| New Orleans |
48% |
4% |
3.1 |
62 |
41% |
4% |
5.2 |
64 |
9 |
Impression: New Orleans suffering again.
Mike: Watching this game I’m still not sure how the Saints lost. They need to do a better job of rushing to sustain drives but the Panthers weren’t doing anything special either. Reggie Bush is not the answer at running back.
NY Jets at NY Giants
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Jets |
28% |
4% |
2.2 |
32 |
45% |
5% |
6.0 |
75 |
3 |
| NY Giants |
50% |
8% |
4.4 |
88 |
49% |
14% |
7.0 |
107 |
35 |
Impression: Good comeback by the Giants from the poor first two games.
Mike: Not as close as the actual score might indicate, as the Jets get a fumble return and a kick return for TD's. The Jets aren't running the ball very well and aren't stopping the run, a recipe for disaster. I'm still not sure how the Giants have won 3 games.
Seattle at Pittsburgh
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Seattle |
38% |
8% |
2.9 |
61 |
30% |
6% |
3.2 |
33 |
0 |
| Pittsburgh |
41% |
8% |
4.2 |
79 |
50% |
4% |
6.5 |
107 |
31 |
Impression: Steelers still a team to be reckoned with among the superteams.
Mike: Alexander must be the softest runner in the league. The Seattle offensive line is not the same, but neither is Alexander ever since his record-breaking year. They could not take advantage of Pittsburgh not having Hampton or Polamalu in the game; you can’t beat the Steelers with just a finesse passing game. Play of the game: Pit intercepted a ball in the end zone at the end of the half; this kept the score at 7-0 and Pit made it 14-0 on an early 3rd quarter drive that took 11 minutes and played downhill from that point on.
Arizona at St. Louis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Arizona |
38% |
6% |
3.0 |
61 |
45% |
7% |
7.0 |
104 |
24 |
| St. Louis |
41% |
8% |
4.7 |
62 |
43% |
6% |
5.1 |
81 |
15 |
Impression: Year of the Cards in the NFC West?
Mike: A big win for the Cardinals, as they can prove they can win on the road, and without their best effort. Leinart is out for the season, so Warner has to step up, and suddenly every Ram fan I know is a Cardinal fan. He didn't have a great game in St. Louis, as the Rams stacked the box and shut-down the run, but he did direct some pretty decent drives.
Atlanta at Tennessee
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Atlanta |
31% |
5% |
2.2 |
45 |
21% |
2% |
2.1 |
9 |
0 |
| Tennessee |
44% |
7% |
3.4 |
75 |
54% |
0% |
4.7 |
71 |
28 |
Impression: Wrong team covered. Nasty offensive numbers for Atlanta.
Mike: The Tennessee defense won this game, overcoming an early pick-6 and 5 turnovers by the offense. They held Atlanta to under 200 total yards and only 9 first downs. The Falcons had the ball in the red-zone with 2 minutes left to play, but could not score a touchdown to tie it. The Titans win this game in typical Jeff Fisher fashion, ugly
Detroit at Washington
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Detroit |
50% |
5% |
3.5 |
70 |
37% |
0% |
3.0 |
42 |
7 |
| Washington |
40% |
14% |
3.3 |
88 |
68% |
10% |
8.5 |
155 |
40 |
Impression: Detroit not road warriors.
Mike: Detroit doesn't run the ball, and if the other team can apply pressure on the QB with their front 4 like the Redskins did then they can’t do anything. Washington killed them with short passes; the Lions must have the worst linebackers in the league.
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tampa Bay |
41% |
0% |
1.4 |
33 |
57% |
4% |
5.7 |
96 |
8 |
| Indianapolis |
43% |
10% |
3.5 |
84 |
68% |
3% |
6.8 |
131 |
41 |
Impression: Colts not taking the defending Champion status lightly.
Mike: It just looks too easy for the Colts, and they were missing Harrison and Adai. For the majority of the game the Bucs only rushed their front 4 and got absolutely no pressure on Manning, who looked like he was playing catch with his receivers during pre-game warm-ups. You can’t deploy a bend/don’t break defense against the Colts because they don’t make mistakes; you have to play it like the Pats do, dirty.
San Diego at Denver
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| San Diego |
30% |
14% |
5.7 |
72 |
73% |
32% |
14.3 |
226 |
55 |
| Denver |
42% |
10% |
2.9 |
71 |
53% |
5% |
6.1 |
107 |
28 |
Impression: 226 Passing EFR is the highest I can remember since I've been at TMW.
Mike: Keith Olberman said it best on Sunday night, describing Denver’s offense, "not even Travis Henry could provide a spark for the Broncos". The Chargers offense got back on-line, though it wasn’t Tomlinson who got the majority of the rushing yards.
Baltimore at San Francisco
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Baltimore |
33% |
6% |
2.7 |
48 |
45% |
2% |
5.5 |
90 |
20 |
| San Francisco |
31% |
5% |
2.5 |
31 |
31% |
9% |
5.1 |
63 |
3 |
Impression: wrong team covered. San Francisco in trouble.
Mike: I can give props to each teams’ defense, but it would only help to make light of how horrible these offenses are. The 49ers have less then 200 total yards in 4 of 5 games. Mike Nolan, who is always calm and collected, looks rattled at his press conference.
Chicago at Green Bay
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Chicago |
25% |
6% |
2.5 |
37 |
37% |
14% |
7.3 |
103 |
13 |
| Green Bay |
41% |
17% |
4.8 |
83 |
58% |
10% |
7.2 |
107 |
32 |
The WRONG TEAM WON! This season teams that won when they lost on the stats score are 3-4 against the spread the next week. Teams that lost when they won the stats score are 0-6!!! Go against Green Bay this week perhaps?
Mike: A tale of two halves, as Green Bay only picks up 1 first down in the second half. Not sure why they went away from what worked in the first half, Chicago doesn’t typically make big adjustments at half; a really confusing game to watch, as if they switched jerseys at half.
Dallas at Buffalo
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Dallas |
35% |
5% |
3.4 |
55 |
50% |
6% |
6.2 |
96 |
23 |
| Buffalo |
17% |
13% |
2.8 |
39 |
41% |
3% |
4.0 |
61 |
3 |
Impression: the wrong team almost won. Seems like NFL teams have figured out how to stop the run.
Mike: MNF in Buffalo for the first time in like 10 years and the place was rockin’! The Bills fake a punt on their first drive and the punter gives an Irvin-like first-down karate chop and the crowd goes wild! The Cowboys are pinned against their own goal and Romo throws a pick-6 and the crowd erupts! Fast-forward to the end of the game, which is presumably over with a failed two-point conversion, the Cowboys recover an on-side kick and nail a game-winning field goal with no time left, giving the Bills fans a running kick to the balls. Romo has his Grossman game.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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